CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    Brandy: For once we agree: CD and BATB are not in good shape.

    I’m convinced the CW will do a “bloodbath” and cancel four shows. People are assuming that because the CW has only done three new shows in the past that they will repeat that this season. That’s putting the cart before the horse. The CW will do what they think is best for improving the network’s overall position. If that means canceling four shows besides the shows already canceled, so be it.

    I think Pedowitz proving he’s not controlled by a “predilection” for giving aging shows a final season against all reason by canceling 90210 has shown he can make a decent decision. I think this will extend to canceling more shows than expected this season.

    HoD I think is the one LOW-rated show that will survive the blood bath (aside from Nikita, of course.) It, Arrow, Supernatural and TVD will survive.

  • Dan

    @Brandy – Other sites may say a certain series is likely to be renewed or cancelled but when 4 series have basically the same ratings there are other factors. Nikita and Hart of Dixie are certain because of syndication and CW has never axed a show after 2 or 3 full seasons because of this factor.

    Every site agrees that Hart of Dixie and Nikita is likely renewal so I’m assuming both will be on the fall schedule. Some sites say Beauty and the Beast is looking likely and The Carrie Diaries is looking unlikely. Those same sites predicted a renewal for The Secret Circle last season and a likely cancelled for Hart of Dixie.

    The fact is its a war between Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries and since I doubt CW will renew both, its a war to see which one can better lead a night. The Carrie Diaries works so far for Mondays so it seems The CW may want to expand on that, they have the 9:00 Thursday slot reserved for The Originals so would CW think Beauty and the Beast can hold an audience on another night? Is it even worth it to bring the show back? Who knows but it gives The Carrie Diaries a slight edge over Beauty and the Beast.

  • Dan

    @Richard Steven Hack – While I agree Pedowitz has a different approach then Ostroff, I dont think this year will be too much of a blood bath. Gossip Girl, 90210, Emily Owens MD, and Cult are already gone. My guess is only 1 more show will be cancelled since I expect now CW will have 6 returning shows for the fall, 3 new dramas and reserve the last slot (Fridays at 9) for either ANTM, repeats of new shows or a reality show.

    So its likely one of Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries will be axed, I dont think both will be. That means that CW will have 5 returning dramas (Arrow, The Vampire Diaries, Supernatural, Hart of Dixie and Nikita) and 5 slots for new dramas. CW wont premiere 4 or 5 new dramas, its unrealistic. They want more returning shows then new shows.

    So now for all future CW posts on the renew cancel index, its really
    The Carrie Diaries Vs. Beauty and the Beast

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan: Well, we’ll see. But it’s pointless to have a returning drama that is virtually certain to do worse than an unknown freshman series. Especially one like TCD.

    TCD has exactly ZERO chance of being renewed. It’s ratings are horrible. By no stretch of the imagination does it “work” on Monday nights.

    BATB at the moment is the better choice with a season average of .65. BUT that season average will drop like a stone when the spring effect hits. Moving it to Fridays next season will only worsen that drop. With those ratings it has ZERO chance of ever being syndicated. Therefore there is ZERO reason to renew it except for your very hypothetical “they want returning shows” – which is what your argument boils down to.

    They only want returning shows that MAKE MONEY. Neither TCD nor BATB fit that bill.

  • Kris

    HOD on Tuesdays @ 8:00 and BATB Tuesdays @ 9:00. CW has already moved Cult and replaced it, on Tuesdays, with BATB encore. I’m good with that for next season. BATB and HOD are pretty close in ratings (BATB is slightly higher). I think the shows draw from similar demos and will do well paired together.

  • Brandy

    I think if CW has five new shows season, BaTB is gone, but four(because Arrow is a hit so one less show to replace) BaTB will stay

  • were123

    I think this a possible schedule for next season:

    Monday
    8:00 Hart of Dixie
    9:00 The Carrie Diaries or a new show

    Tuesday
    8:00 Supernatural
    9:00 Selection

    Wednesday
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 The Hundred

    Thursday
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals

    Friday
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 ANTM or Beauty & The Beast

    With 90210 cancelled Beauty & The Beast may come back, but it will have the same destiny that Nikita had on S2: it will be moved to Friday. And upon that move it will depend on its ability to stay on a 0.5s range to make it back to season 3 and 4, but it will have a very troubled season 2.
    Hart of Dixie is a 100% thing, it never goes below 0.5 and once in a while it hits 0.7s, without the need of super lead ins like Arrow or TVD.
    TCD is the one I’m not sure of; Hart of Dixie is quite alone in a network that’s becoming recognized for genre programming (the top 3 shows are genre shows) and they might want to keep something compatible with HoD, and TCD certainly looks like a possible answer. The CW could keep TCD as it doesn’t have Emily Owens 0.3s, but they could say “let’s just find another soap teen show”, so I would keep it on the bubble. If it could rises to 0.5 or even higher, it will make a case for a comeback.
    Supernatural won’t stay with Arrow; it has a very loyal audience and it will help launch a genre show. I’m not sure where they will put Supernatural, but it will be either Mondays or Tuesdays. I imagine the CW would like to have their mondays night reserved to teen soaps and so they could put TCD (or a new show) and HoD together, then Tuesdays SPN + new show, Wensdays Arrow + new show, Thursdays TVD + new show, and finally Fridays Nikita + Beauty and the Beast (or ANTM)

  • billtoo

    The promo ads for Cult were p-poor. The nail through the hand turned off a lot of potential viewers. Was it a last minute decision to try to coat tail The Following’s initial ratings success?
    If it was inadvisable to market it for what it is, an innovative show within a show, why order it to series in the first place?

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Kris: “BATB and HOD are pretty close in ratings (BATB is slightly higher).”

    No, HoD is higher. HoD has a season average of .6 as of the latest episode, and BATB has a .5 season average as of last week’s episode.

    What is FAR more important is that HoD is in season two and thus with syndication potential and BATB is in season one and has NO syndication potential.

    BATB can in no way be renewed over HoD. Not that I think the CW would even consider that due to the syndication issue and therefore whatever happens to BATB won’t even be influenced by HoD.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    were123: “they might want to keep something compatible with HoD”

    Completely speculative. Who says they want a “teen night”? Without any evidence, this argument has zero weight.

    “The CW could keep TCD as it doesn’t have Emily Owens 0.3s”

    Its season average as of this week is .4, It’s a disaster. Once the spring effect hits, yes, it will be doing .3′s.

    Once again, there is ZERO change that TCD gets renewed. Zero.

    I really don’t understand why people are grasping for SOME, ANY possible way for this first season disaster to get renewed. It’s mind-boggling.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I”m sorry, I messed up!

    HoD has a season average of .56 – that’s right. BATB has a season average of .65 as of last week, NOT .5 as I said. I accidentally read the WEEK’S ratings for the season average.

    My bad. So, yes, BATB at the moment has a one tenth of a point advantage. Not exciting.

    The rest of my post remains true. HoD has syndication potential. BATB does not.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Oh God, I screwed up the TCD season average, too! TCD season average is .51, not .4.

    Still a disaster seven episodes into its first season.

  • Melanie

    I don’t think 90210 being gone makes any of the ‘bubble’ dramas any safer. I’ll say again — if the CW can afford to replace them with something that has the potential to rate higher, they would HAPPILY trash anything on M-TH that isn’t already renewed. Obviously, none of the shows that didn’t get early pick-ups are a ‘lock’ for renewal or they would have, you know, gotten early pick-ups too.

    Its going to depend on how the pilots do, and how much money the CW has to launch shows. As for the schedule — changes have to be advertised, which costs money. Arrow, SPN, TVD & Nikita will stay right where they are on the schedule. If one of HOD, BATB or TCD are renewed — I lean towards HOD as the most likely — it will spackle the schedule at 9 on either Monday or Tuesday. The CW needs its new shows to be self starters, like Arrow and TVD and to build new nights of programming on Monday and Tuesday. SPN is not an 8PM show.

  • omabin

    @Melanie,

    I contest the idea that just because a show hasn’t received an early pickup it cannot be a certain renewal. Cases in point:
    - Bones has been renewed by Fox => New Girl, Glee and Raising Hope are absolutely certain to get another season too
    - NCIS and How I Met Your Mother have been renewed by CBS => 2 Broke Girls, Mike and Molly, Hawaii Five-0 NCIS LA, Criminal Minds, CSI, Person of Interest and Blue Bloods are absolutely certain to get another season too

    There are more examples from previous years, I am just too lazy to look right now.

  • reward

    I wanna Ringer T.T

    Imo TCD will have only one seaseon.

  • Dan

    @Melanie – If Supernatural isn’t an 8pm show then I can see it Tuesdays at 9 with a new series leading off the night. That makes sense since that’s how Vampire Diaries and Arrow worked out. I have no idea what CW sees for Mondays next season other then Hart of Dixie.

  • Angellica .T.

    wow restless u dnt think their gone read these at some point they post and get da info wat makes u think they wont say something to the cw

  • Melanie

    @omabin Bones, HIMYM & NCIS were renewed because contract negotiations with the cast were the issue to going forward, not ratings. That CBS & Fox announced those is not the same as the early pick-ups on the CW. If the CW was absolutely certain about any of the others, why wouldn’t it have given them pick-ups with Arrow, SPN & TVD?

    The other shows you mentioned have green smiley’s on the renew/cancel index. None of the CW shows do.

  • Melanie

    @Dan I think its possible (not probable) that SPN could be moved away from Arrow and if so I agree with you that Tueday at 9 (where it started)or Monday at 9 are the only choices for it. It won’t go back to Fridays, it won’t follow TVD and as I said, its not an 8PM show.
    I agree with you that HOD is the most likely for renewal. As for the others – if the CW can afford to start over, they will.

  • Lily

    I think that considering they are the networks highest rated show they will want to separate SPN and Arrow, therefore I think the schedule will look like this next season:

    Monday
    8:00 Hart of Dixie
    9:00 New Drama (Oxygen or The Selection)

    Since it has ok ratings and is in its second season Hart of Dixie will almost definetly be renewed, but I think they are likely to try to pair it with a new Series.

    Tuesday
    8:00 Supernatural
    9:00 New Drama (The Tomorrow People or The Hundred)

    Supernatural has done so well that it won’t be moved back to Fridays. Instead it will launch a new drama Tuesdays at 9.

    Wednesday
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 New Drama (The Tomorrow People or The Selection)

    Arrow will remain in its slot and likely launch a new drama. Most likely the Tomorrow People as it is being exec-produce by Julie Plec(TVD) and Greg Berlanti(Arrow) and with a superhero based show has a similar base. Also they’d have double Amell of both Robbie and Stephen.

    Thursday
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals

    Of course The Vampire Diaries will remain in its slot and its spinoff The Originals is likely to follow. Unless they decide it has enough of a fan base to lead it’s own night in which case I predict The Selection will be place here instead.

    Friday
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 Reruns

    With Nikita remaining at 8, CW will most likely air encores of one of their new dramas. Evidently this is their burnoff slot for when a show isn’t pulling enough ratings to justify remaining on weekdays.

    CW canceling 90210 and Cult, has made Nikita, Hart of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast on the bubble. Since all 4 have similar ratings for their timeslots, I believe that syndicated bound Nikita and Hart of Dixie will be renewed but the others will be canceled. Of course this all depends largely on the offerings of the pilots next season. Everything could change if say The Originals is deemed enough of a self-starter and given it’s own night or if they have so little faith in the new pilots they decide to renew either TCD or BATB. In which case my money is on TCD as it is cheaper to produce and doesn’t have a TVD buffer to help its ratings.

    Also don’t forget one if not two of the new pilots will probably be brought in for mid-season, i.e. cult and TCD. I could also see TCD or even possibly HOD being made a midseason replacement in case a new show fails and they need an established show to put in its spot. In HOD’s case this would allow them to get closer to syndication while still trying out a new schedule.

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