CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Don

    The CW

    Monday:
    8 – Blink (New Show)
    9 – The Carrie Diaries

    Tuesday:
    8 – Hart of Dixie
    9 – The Selection (New Show)

    Wednesday:
    8 – Arrow
    9 – Supernatural

    +++Not Broke so don’t mess with it.

    Thursday:
    8 – The Vampire Diaries
    9 – The Originals (New Show)

    +++TVD Spinoff after TVD would work well.

    Friday:
    8 – Nikita
    9 – Beauty & The Beast (New Day)

    Midseason:
    The Tomorrow People and The Hundred.

  • starship

    @Lily

    Supernatural will never move to 8pm, it’s a 9pm show and always has been, but it will definitely be separated from Arrow, it will go to either Monday at 9 or Tuesday at 9, although Tuesday might be better, since all new shows seem to bomb in that slot. Also, Hart of Dixie, while very stable isn’t strong enough to launch a new show, they’ll probably have it at either Monday at 9 or Tuesday at 9 (depending on where Supernatural goes) and have a new show start the night on its own just like Arrow did this year. I can actually see them pairing The Originals (if it gets picked up) with Supernatural on Tuesday, since it has a built in fanbase already and give the post Vampire Diaries slot to another show.

  • Ade

    I say this schedule

    Monday
    8pm: Hart of Dixie
    9pm: Beauty and the Beast

    Tuesday
    8pm: Oxygen
    9pm: Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8pm: Arrow
    9pm: The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    8pm: The Vampire Diaries
    9pm: The Originals

    Friday
    8pm: Nikita
    9pm: Repeats

  • Ade

    or this one

    Monday
    8pm: Oxygen
    9pm: The Tomorrow People

    Tuesday
    8pm: Hart of Dixie
    9pm: Beauty and the Beast

    Wednesday
    8pm: Arrow
    9pm: Supernatural

    Thursday
    8pm: The Vampire Diaries
    9pm: The Originals

    Friday
    8pm: Nikita
    9pm: Repeats

  • Mark Rabinowitz

    90210, Carrie Diaries and Cult – dead.

  • Melanie

    So I’m thinking – with Cult shipped to Fridays and repeats ‘rotating’ through the Tuesday 9PM slot — is the CW testing the bubble shows there to see which one plays the ‘best’? Or are they going to put up SPN, TVD & Arrow encores there too? Looking for tiebreaking ratings information or just trying to keep the hour from sinking further?

    I was also wondering if being ‘closer’ to syndication is really a plus for HOD. What are the syndication revenues like for a show like HOD — are there any prospects for syndication? It seems like mostly sitcoms, procedurals and genre shows are the hot syndication tickets. Is the studio really going to want to produce two more seasons (cutting the license fees because at these ratings levels they almost have to be) to get to syndication? Yes, its ratings have been steady, but still pretty low and its not the type of show that the CW currently seems to favor.

    Maybe the CW (and the parent studios) might prefer to throw a second season at BATB IF its ratings stabilize.

  • John A

    I think BATB will be renewed for 13 eps and TCD will be canceled. BATB dont deserve a renewel really but they might try a friday or Tuesday at 9pm move. I cant see the CW axe every new show.

  • SecretShame

    Hart of Dixie has just used the soap equivalent of the nuclear option in its main ongoing story. It will be interesting to see what effect that has on its ratings. Excitement, social media chatter, etc are probably good news, but there’s a very serious risk of alienating their small but very reliable viewer base. HoD is actually quite unusual in its tone: It has been relentlessly light and upbeat, and a big injection of angst and misery may not play well with the existing fans.

    I suppose if there’s ever a time to drop the bomb it’s during the run up to a decision on whether or not to renew a show for a third season (and thus most likely a fourth).

  • RS

    I too was unsure whether SPN and Arrow would be separated next year. At first I thought it was inevitable, and if Arrow had kept that 1.3, I would be sure of it. But Arrow and SPN’s ratings are very close – to the point that I’m not sure if the end product (the two together)is not greater than the sum of the parts. They have one night when CW wins – even over some other network shows. Will they risk that surety on a chance of two nights? It doesn’t matter to me; I’ll follow SPN anywhere. Hey, put it on Monday, They say that’s the only weeknight it hasn’t been on. No, cancel that. Monday has to many good shows. Put it on Tuesday if you must, just keep it away from Revolution (I will not participate in a Kripke battle) and Grimm.
    As a lover of all things Beauty and the Beast (the 80s series, the animated classic, the George C. Scott masterpiece, the French interpretation), please cancel Beauty and the Male Model. It’s an artistic imperative.

  • Craig

    My current personal predictions… I’m sure some of what I’m suggesting here would be too risky for The CW, but it’s worth a try, right?

    MONDAY

    8PM The Carrie Diaries
    9PM New Drama (Blink or Company Town)

    Possibly crazy to pair Carrie with an untested drama, but I’m pretty sure one of those family dramas would go there just fine.

    TUESDAY

    8PM Hart Of Dixie
    9PM Supernatural

    Supernatural’s fans are loyal and will follow it anywhere.

    WEDNESDAY

    8PM Arrow
    9PM The Tomorrow People

    The lure of an “Amell Night” is strong.

    THURSDAY
    8PM Vampire Diaries
    9PM The Hundred

    The Hundred is a really strong script. It could also fall in the post-TVD “nobody watches” trap. But hopefully it’d be different enough that it could stand out. Because I’m about to make my most cracktastic suggestion…

    FRIDAY
    8PM The Originals
    9PM Beauty And The Beast (13 episode order)/Nikita (22 episodes in a row at midseason)

    Why “sacrifice” a new show for that night? The way I see it, they could promote the heck out of it during TVD. The problem is, TVD fans turn off the TV after TVD so they can talk about it. This way, they have a day to stew, and Fridays get an anchor.

    I think Beauty and the Beast deserves at least a 13 episode order to see how it does. That fan base is rabid and it might be good to have something familiar around in case something else bombs.

  • Melanie

    I think that the renewal question is which one of HOD & BATB gets the pick-up. I don’t think its a stretch for the CW to launch 4 new hours when one of them is the Originals, which can be packaged and promoted with TVD.

    Mon
    Blink or The Selection or new reality programming (new show)
    HOD or BATB (or new reality programming if the CW really cleans house)

    Tue
    The Hundred (new show)
    The Tomorrow People (new show)

    Wed
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thur
    Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new show)

    Fri
    Nikita
    Encores/ANTM

    with maybe a new reality show and Amazon at midseason.

  • Ekras

    TCD is done for – B&B will get the pickup just watch… that being said I predict they will move its night (likely to Friday before or after Nikita) and see how it does there.

    The Originals will NOT air after TVD – that would be the worst programming decision ever – they will want it to air on a different night to attract the TCD folks to watch CW instead of another network. My guess is it will also run “out of sync” with TCD – One will likely start a few weeks before the other and except major holidays etc. will have different weeks off.

    My guess is this:

    Monday: Possibly the originals – if not new pilot.HOD (if renewed) is likely Mon/Tues also.
    Tuesday: Possibly the originals – if not new pilot. HOD (if renewed) is likely Mon/Tues also.
    Wednesday: Supernatural and Arrow
    Thursday: Vampire Diaries + new pilot
    Friday: Nikita + B&B

  • Maria

    Since CW is too cheap to even give 90210 time to film a proper finale, I hope all three remaining bubble shows get canceled. They are no more deserving, plus TCD while it’s an ok show, it’s not even accurate to the ’80s, NYC, or SATC. I’m shocked that there’s an audience that actually takes BATB seriously.

  • Jt

    Maria
    If 90210 was on another network it would have been canned by now.

  • Craig

    Maria said:

    “Since CW is too cheap to even give 90210 time to film a proper finale, I hope all three remaining bubble shows get canceled. They are no more deserving, plus TCD while it’s an ok show, it’s not even accurate to the ’80s, NYC, or SATC. I’m shocked that there’s an audience that actually takes BATB seriously.”

    There is no reason to pick up more 90210. Especially the fifth season has been absolute crap… actually, no, I take that back, it’s become repetitive to the point that obviously audiences don’t care anymore. It would be insane to renew a show at its ratings levels.

    They got their 100 episodes, enough for syndication… anything more to be ordered would be like throwing money away. Why spend money on renewing a show that barely anyone watches? It wasn’t about being “too cheap;” it was about the network being smart. Believe me, they’ll keep anything on forever as long as it’s profitable… and I feel like with 90210, they saw that it wouldn’t be possible to pull a profit. So, cancelled.

  • Brandy

    Ekras, dont be ridiculous, of course The Originals 100% WILL air after VD.Beauty will either be cancelled or moved to gri.All spinoffs air behind the original_Private Practice after Greys Anatomy,NCs :LA after NCIS ect.CW wants a show that will keep VDs audience watching after its over and The Originals is the best & only bet to do that.

  • halloween

    might be a good idea TO CANCEL their bubble shows…they got some promising sounding pilots…cw only has about 2 years to turn network around

  • Tom

    Where do you guys get the idea that it’s feasible to move B&B anywhere? The show has 8 episodes left to prove itself. If nothing changes, the CW will be stuck with a low rated video romance that attracts a mere 1.5 MM or so viewers in its intended 18 – 49 demo. IMO, most of the hype is coming from female viewers in the T14 – 17 demo and they don’t count. Moving a show like that to Friday is death. Everybody know viewership is down on Fridays, so B&B’s ratings would drop even further. That makes it commercially unfeasible. Especially at 9 PM where it would be opposite Grimm which has increased its ratings over the second season.

    Consider this: With its current ratings, B&B can’t serve as an 8 PM lead in for the CW on any day. Since Friday is out and the CW’s Wednesday and Thursday schedules likely will be filled with current shows plus the Originals, B&B has no place to go but Monday or Tuesdays at 9 PM. Those are prime slots for new shows and I seriously doubt if the CW is going to waste them on a failing first year series.

    The bottom line is that the CW would be crazy to waste a time slot on B&B merely because it might be the highest rated of its low rated shows. I’m predicting that the CW will instead cancel both Carrie and B&B and replace them with a combination of in- house pilots and off the shelf productions from Canada. The notion of importing productions isn’t ideal, but they’re inexpensive and, unless the CW repeats the LA Complex fiasco, could draw an audience equal to B&B. So, don’t count on B&B hanging around just because its drawing slightly better than Carrie. Unless their ratings improve in its current slot, the CW will cancel both.

  • Brandy

    @Tom, I agree its most likley BaTB will be cancelled as well as CD but the reasons people are saying it might be renewed and moved to fri are:
    1.CW needs something for fri @9 after Nikita
    2.Its cheap to make
    3.it does well internationally
    4.it does well online
    5.its a cbs owned show and its possible cbs wont want both thier shows_90210 is a cbs show and is cancelled_ cancelled
    6.its a genre show,which is where CW is going next season and Fri is a genre show night
    7.CW cant cancel too many shows and theyve already cancelled/ended:GG,LA Complex,90210,Emily Owens,Cult and with CD a very likley cancellation, that will be6_ 7 shows.CW can only afford to put 4_5 new shows,especially genre shows ,which are more exspensive to make and Reign & Selection film not in US or Canda, which is very exspensive.

  • CBSviewer

    Wednesday night is untouchable. It’s CW #1 night and Pedowitz would be crazy to change it !

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