Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):
| Program | Status | Renew/ Cancel Index |
| Cult |  |
0.44 |
| 90210 |  (canceled 2/28) |
0.50 |
| Emily Owens, M.D.* | canceled | 0.54 |
| Gossip Girl* | final season complete | 0.61 |
| Nikita (F) |  |
0.62 |
| The Carrie Diaries |  |
0.79 |
| Hart Of Dixie | |
0.83 |
| Beauty And The Beast | |
0.89 |
| Supernatural | renewed | 1.38 |
| Arrow | renewed | 1.51 |
| Vampire Diaries | renewed | 1.83 |
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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.
The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)
While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.
It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).
In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.
Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!
Not so fast.
What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.
What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.
What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.
What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.
Get the picture?
Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.
Notes:
- - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- - more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
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- certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.
wow restless u dnt think their gone read these at some point they post and get da info wat makes u think they wont say something to the cw
@omabin Bones, HIMYM & NCIS were renewed because contract negotiations with the cast were the issue to going forward, not ratings. That CBS & Fox announced those is not the same as the early pick-ups on the CW. If the CW was absolutely certain about any of the others, why wouldn’t it have given them pick-ups with Arrow, SPN & TVD?
The other shows you mentioned have green smiley’s on the renew/cancel index. None of the CW shows do.
@Dan I think its possible (not probable) that SPN could be moved away from Arrow and if so I agree with you that Tueday at 9 (where it started)or Monday at 9 are the only choices for it. It won’t go back to Fridays, it won’t follow TVD and as I said, its not an 8PM show.
I agree with you that HOD is the most likely for renewal. As for the others – if the CW can afford to start over, they will.
I think that considering they are the networks highest rated show they will want to separate SPN and Arrow, therefore I think the schedule will look like this next season:
Monday
8:00 Hart of Dixie
9:00 New Drama (Oxygen or The Selection)
Since it has ok ratings and is in its second season Hart of Dixie will almost definetly be renewed, but I think they are likely to try to pair it with a new Series.
Tuesday
8:00 Supernatural
9:00 New Drama (The Tomorrow People or The Hundred)
Supernatural has done so well that it won’t be moved back to Fridays. Instead it will launch a new drama Tuesdays at 9.
Wednesday
8:00 Arrow
9:00 New Drama (The Tomorrow People or The Selection)
Arrow will remain in its slot and likely launch a new drama. Most likely the Tomorrow People as it is being exec-produce by Julie Plec(TVD) and Greg Berlanti(Arrow) and with a superhero based show has a similar base. Also they’d have double Amell of both Robbie and Stephen.
Thursday
8:00 The Vampire Diaries
9:00 The Originals
Of course The Vampire Diaries will remain in its slot and its spinoff The Originals is likely to follow. Unless they decide it has enough of a fan base to lead it’s own night in which case I predict The Selection will be place here instead.
Friday
8:00 Nikita
9:00 Reruns
With Nikita remaining at 8, CW will most likely air encores of one of their new dramas. Evidently this is their burnoff slot for when a show isn’t pulling enough ratings to justify remaining on weekdays.
CW canceling 90210 and Cult, has made Nikita, Hart of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast on the bubble. Since all 4 have similar ratings for their timeslots, I believe that syndicated bound Nikita and Hart of Dixie will be renewed but the others will be canceled. Of course this all depends largely on the offerings of the pilots next season. Everything could change if say The Originals is deemed enough of a self-starter and given it’s own night or if they have so little faith in the new pilots they decide to renew either TCD or BATB. In which case my money is on TCD as it is cheaper to produce and doesn’t have a TVD buffer to help its ratings.
Also don’t forget one if not two of the new pilots will probably be brought in for mid-season, i.e. cult and TCD. I could also see TCD or even possibly HOD being made a midseason replacement in case a new show fails and they need an established show to put in its spot. In HOD’s case this would allow them to get closer to syndication while still trying out a new schedule.
The CW
Monday:
8 – Blink (New Show)
9 – The Carrie Diaries
Tuesday:
8 – Hart of Dixie
9 – The Selection (New Show)
Wednesday:
8 – Arrow
9 – Supernatural
+++Not Broke so don’t mess with it.
Thursday:
8 – The Vampire Diaries
9 – The Originals (New Show)
+++TVD Spinoff after TVD would work well.
Friday:
8 – Nikita
9 – Beauty & The Beast (New Day)
Midseason:
The Tomorrow People and The Hundred.
@Lily
Supernatural will never move to 8pm, it’s a 9pm show and always has been, but it will definitely be separated from Arrow, it will go to either Monday at 9 or Tuesday at 9, although Tuesday might be better, since all new shows seem to bomb in that slot. Also, Hart of Dixie, while very stable isn’t strong enough to launch a new show, they’ll probably have it at either Monday at 9 or Tuesday at 9 (depending on where Supernatural goes) and have a new show start the night on its own just like Arrow did this year. I can actually see them pairing The Originals (if it gets picked up) with Supernatural on Tuesday, since it has a built in fanbase already and give the post Vampire Diaries slot to another show.
I say this schedule
Monday
8pm: Hart of Dixie
9pm: Beauty and the Beast
Tuesday
8pm: Oxygen
9pm: Supernatural
Wednesday
8pm: Arrow
9pm: The Tomorrow People
Thursday
8pm: The Vampire Diaries
9pm: The Originals
Friday
8pm: Nikita
9pm: Repeats
or this one
Monday
8pm: Oxygen
9pm: The Tomorrow People
Tuesday
8pm: Hart of Dixie
9pm: Beauty and the Beast
Wednesday
8pm: Arrow
9pm: Supernatural
Thursday
8pm: The Vampire Diaries
9pm: The Originals
Friday
8pm: Nikita
9pm: Repeats
90210, Carrie Diaries and Cult – dead.
So I’m thinking – with Cult shipped to Fridays and repeats ‘rotating’ through the Tuesday 9PM slot — is the CW testing the bubble shows there to see which one plays the ‘best’? Or are they going to put up SPN, TVD & Arrow encores there too? Looking for tiebreaking ratings information or just trying to keep the hour from sinking further?
I was also wondering if being ‘closer’ to syndication is really a plus for HOD. What are the syndication revenues like for a show like HOD — are there any prospects for syndication? It seems like mostly sitcoms, procedurals and genre shows are the hot syndication tickets. Is the studio really going to want to produce two more seasons (cutting the license fees because at these ratings levels they almost have to be) to get to syndication? Yes, its ratings have been steady, but still pretty low and its not the type of show that the CW currently seems to favor.
Maybe the CW (and the parent studios) might prefer to throw a second season at BATB IF its ratings stabilize.
I think BATB will be renewed for 13 eps and TCD will be canceled. BATB dont deserve a renewel really but they might try a friday or Tuesday at 9pm move. I cant see the CW axe every new show.
Hart of Dixie has just used the soap equivalent of the nuclear option in its main ongoing story. It will be interesting to see what effect that has on its ratings. Excitement, social media chatter, etc are probably good news, but there’s a very serious risk of alienating their small but very reliable viewer base. HoD is actually quite unusual in its tone: It has been relentlessly light and upbeat, and a big injection of angst and misery may not play well with the existing fans.
I suppose if there’s ever a time to drop the bomb it’s during the run up to a decision on whether or not to renew a show for a third season (and thus most likely a fourth).
I too was unsure whether SPN and Arrow would be separated next year. At first I thought it was inevitable, and if Arrow had kept that 1.3, I would be sure of it. But Arrow and SPN’s ratings are very close – to the point that I’m not sure if the end product (the two together)is not greater than the sum of the parts. They have one night when CW wins – even over some other network shows. Will they risk that surety on a chance of two nights? It doesn’t matter to me; I’ll follow SPN anywhere. Hey, put it on Monday, They say that’s the only weeknight it hasn’t been on. No, cancel that. Monday has to many good shows. Put it on Tuesday if you must, just keep it away from Revolution (I will not participate in a Kripke battle) and Grimm.
As a lover of all things Beauty and the Beast (the 80s series, the animated classic, the George C. Scott masterpiece, the French interpretation), please cancel Beauty and the Male Model. It’s an artistic imperative.
My current personal predictions… I’m sure some of what I’m suggesting here would be too risky for The CW, but it’s worth a try, right?
MONDAY
8PM The Carrie Diaries
9PM New Drama (Blink or Company Town)
Possibly crazy to pair Carrie with an untested drama, but I’m pretty sure one of those family dramas would go there just fine.
TUESDAY
8PM Hart Of Dixie
9PM Supernatural
Supernatural’s fans are loyal and will follow it anywhere.
WEDNESDAY
8PM Arrow
9PM The Tomorrow People
The lure of an “Amell Night” is strong.
THURSDAY
8PM Vampire Diaries
9PM The Hundred
The Hundred is a really strong script. It could also fall in the post-TVD “nobody watches” trap. But hopefully it’d be different enough that it could stand out. Because I’m about to make my most cracktastic suggestion…
FRIDAY
8PM The Originals
9PM Beauty And The Beast (13 episode order)/Nikita (22 episodes in a row at midseason)
Why “sacrifice” a new show for that night? The way I see it, they could promote the heck out of it during TVD. The problem is, TVD fans turn off the TV after TVD so they can talk about it. This way, they have a day to stew, and Fridays get an anchor.
I think Beauty and the Beast deserves at least a 13 episode order to see how it does. That fan base is rabid and it might be good to have something familiar around in case something else bombs.
I think that the renewal question is which one of HOD & BATB gets the pick-up. I don’t think its a stretch for the CW to launch 4 new hours when one of them is the Originals, which can be packaged and promoted with TVD.
Mon
Blink or The Selection or new reality programming (new show)
HOD or BATB (or new reality programming if the CW really cleans house)
Tue
The Hundred (new show)
The Tomorrow People (new show)
Wed
Arrow
Supernatural
Thur
Vampire Diaries
The Originals (new show)
Fri
Nikita
Encores/ANTM
with maybe a new reality show and Amazon at midseason.
TCD is done for – B&B will get the pickup just watch… that being said I predict they will move its night (likely to Friday before or after Nikita) and see how it does there.
The Originals will NOT air after TVD – that would be the worst programming decision ever – they will want it to air on a different night to attract the TCD folks to watch CW instead of another network. My guess is it will also run “out of sync” with TCD – One will likely start a few weeks before the other and except major holidays etc. will have different weeks off.
My guess is this:
Monday: Possibly the originals – if not new pilot.HOD (if renewed) is likely Mon/Tues also.
Tuesday: Possibly the originals – if not new pilot. HOD (if renewed) is likely Mon/Tues also.
Wednesday: Supernatural and Arrow
Thursday: Vampire Diaries + new pilot
Friday: Nikita + B&B
Since CW is too cheap to even give 90210 time to film a proper finale, I hope all three remaining bubble shows get canceled. They are no more deserving, plus TCD while it’s an ok show, it’s not even accurate to the ’80s, NYC, or SATC. I’m shocked that there’s an audience that actually takes BATB seriously.
Maria
If 90210 was on another network it would have been canned by now.
Maria said:
“Since CW is too cheap to even give 90210 time to film a proper finale, I hope all three remaining bubble shows get canceled. They are no more deserving, plus TCD while it’s an ok show, it’s not even accurate to the ’80s, NYC, or SATC. I’m shocked that there’s an audience that actually takes BATB seriously.”
There is no reason to pick up more 90210. Especially the fifth season has been absolute crap… actually, no, I take that back, it’s become repetitive to the point that obviously audiences don’t care anymore. It would be insane to renew a show at its ratings levels.
They got their 100 episodes, enough for syndication… anything more to be ordered would be like throwing money away. Why spend money on renewing a show that barely anyone watches? It wasn’t about being “too cheap;” it was about the network being smart. Believe me, they’ll keep anything on forever as long as it’s profitable… and I feel like with 90210, they saw that it wouldn’t be possible to pull a profit. So, cancelled.
Ekras, dont be ridiculous, of course The Originals 100% WILL air after VD.Beauty will either be cancelled or moved to gri.All spinoffs air behind the original_Private Practice after Greys Anatomy,NCs :LA after NCIS ect.CW wants a show that will keep VDs audience watching after its over and The Originals is the best & only bet to do that.