CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Brandy

    I dont what CW should do.The teen soaps like GG,90210 did good for years but then crashed.The non teen dramas theyve tried have been ratings failures(Cult,Ringer,Nikita)& not all thier genre shows have bern hits(Reaper,SC,BaTB)& even thier medical drama soaps with adult characters (EOMD,HoD) havent been breakout hits.I think CW should have diversity and variety, not go all genre all the time, guy skewing genres especially I liked how Mark did this season with a balance of genre shows and giry shows (whesrther they were teen soaps like GG,90210 or adult medical drama soaps like HoD and EOMD.I am in the A 18_34 & W18_34 tsrget audience and watch CW and abcfamily because im thier target audience, a audience ignored except for these two newtworks.I do watch a little Lifetime and Abc but most of those characters are 10 or more years older than me and in a different place in thier life lives than me so its harder to connect/relate to most of those shows and charscters for me.

  • Charmed

    I say this all the time, but I think TCD should be renewed over BATB. TCD is a self starter and gets slightly lower ratings than BATB, but BATB will drop, especially after the hiatus, and TCD will stay around the .4-.5 mark, because it doesn’t go on hiatus. The Originals is just about guaranteed the post TVD slot next season, and they don’t know how BATB will rate without TVD. TCD is the only show compatible with HOD, and they could work on Mondays, and TCD could get some of the HOD audience.

  • Tom

    @ Charmed

    If you’re going to go the route of renewing either B&B or TCD, there’s one more consideration: Which show requires more “fixing”? No matter how you look at it, both shows are underperforming, so leaving them “as is” is a ticket to further failure. I’m not exactly impartial, but I’d have to say that the acting on TCD is much superior. AnnaSophia Robb is a fairly good character actress. The show got a late start and an indifferent reception. On the other hand, the storyline seems to be improving and the characters are convincing. So, I don’t see the need for more than the usual tinkering here.

    In contrast, B&B has a major acting deficit. KK is a face. Instead of portraying a “tough cop”, she comes across as Cop Barbie. There’s also no chemistry on the show between Catherine and Tess. That’s attributable to neither actress having much talent. The writers have been trying to fill that hole with guest stars, but it’s clearly not working. Moreover, the storyline requires viewers to fill in a lots of gaps and overlook a lot of inconsistencies. I believe that’s what’s behind B&B’s ratings problems. B&B is stuck with KK. So, what this show would need is for Tess to disappear and for a real actress to step into her place. This is in part a “cop buddy” show so, without more chemistry, it’ll remain stuck in romance land. That may thrill the teenie bloggers but, by itself, won’t raise the show’s ratings. All of these problems will be difficult and time consuming to sort. Frankly, I don’t see why the CW would go to the trouble. So, if one of the shows absolutely must be renewed, the sensible move would be to dump B&B and keep TCD.

  • Bern

    Nikita – Renewed
    HOD – Renewed
    TCD – 50/50 chance (More likely getting renewed since CW support this show plus it’s cheaper to renew it than cancel it for a brand new show)
    B&TB – Cancelled
    Cult – Cancelled

  • JulieDawn

    @Tom

    You are SO off-base with your assumption that most of the BATB viewing audience is female 14-17yrs. Yes, there is a female majority, but the median age range (at least that of the online fandom who are the most active and vocal) is well into the target 18-49 demo. There are very few young teens, most are married and with children.

    Basically we are all just women who love a good romance (although don’t get me wrong, we do have male fans too!).
    And whatever other (perceived) faults the show may have, it’s delivering 100% on that romance the fanbase wants.

  • Mark E.

    Personally, I loved what I’ve seen of Cult. Totally glued to my tv for the first 2 episodes. Haven’t been able to say that for quite awhile.

  • em

    Hart of Dixie is building great story lines and character layers!!! KEEP for at least a 3rd season. I think 90210 should have a short final season rather then jamming too much into an hr long final ep in a few episodes time!!! Cancel TCD.

  • Maria

    Jt and Craig,

    All I’m saying is that 90210 deserved to have time to film a proper 2 hour finale episode, after 100 plus episodes, they deserve that much at least.

  • Jim

    You know it didn’t help that there was a huge gas explosion in our area the very same night of Cult’s premiere and every major news station covered it for hours, cancelling all other programming. I watched the premiere on replay and didn’t think it was that bad. Like it better than The Following anyway.

  • Danielle

    My vote for renewal goes to BATB. The first half of HOD was pretty good since Zoe and Wade have really good chemistry, but to be honest, the acting is terrible. I only watched for Wade and Zoe and now that they have broken up there’s no need to watch anymore. TCD, to my understanding is far more expensive to make over BATB and the fan following is not nearly as large as BATB. Besides, I can hardly stand watching the commercials, I couldn’t imagine sitting through a whole hour! BATB on the other hand has improved leaps and bounds from its pilot. The assumption that its audience is not the target viewers, shows that people posting here don’t really know what they are talking about, because myself and everyone I know who watch are well into the target bracket. Sure this show has some flaws but those things can be worked out and there are new cast members coming to this show soon. But most importantly what they do have right is the chemistry between Vincent and Cat. At the root of this show is a romance, and these two cast have chemistry in spades!! This is the best romance I’ve seen in a LONG time, from the big or the small screen. Honestly, if you like romance you need to try this show. You will be hooked I promise you.

  • Gillian

    @Melanie

    “I was also wondering if being ‘closer’ to syndication is really a plus for HOD. What are the syndication revenues like for a show like HOD — are there any prospects for syndication? It seems like mostly sitcoms, procedurals and genre shows are the hot syndication tickets. Is the studio really going to want to produce two more seasons (cutting the license fees because at these ratings levels they almost have to be) to get to syndication? Yes, its ratings have been steady, but still pretty low and its not the type of show that the CW currently seems to favor.

    Maybe the CW (and the parent studios) might prefer to throw a second season at BATB IF its ratings stabilise.”

    Since the two shows do not have significantly different ratings averages, I’m not sure why the CW would choose BATB over HoD. Whether or not HoD is a certain for syndication, the fact remains it is a possibility within 2 seasons. Given the relatively stable ratings thus far, the CW may feel that it will limp along steadily for two more seasons.

    BATB after one season is where HoD is now, thus it has three seasons to ‘limp along’ before the possibility of syndication. If it’s a straight choice between the two, irrespective of things like costs to make, which I have no more than rumour that HoD is cheap to produce to fall back on, I’d say HOD is far more likely to be chosen than BATB or TCD.

  • Tom

    “The assumption that its audience is not the target viewers, shows that people posting here don’t really know what they are talking about, because myself and everyone I know who watch are well into the target bracket.”

    Or, perhaps it shows that some Beastlies can’t read for comprehension. I assume this comment is directed at me, so I encourage you to scroll up and read my comment about B&B being “…a low rated video romance that attracts a mere 1.5 MM or so viewers in its intended 18 – 49 demo. IMO, most of the hype is coming from female viewers in the T14 – 17 demo….” It’s fairly obvious that most of the anemic 18 – 49 demo consists of women. So, someone in that demo is always going to post positive comments here swooning about the passion between Vincent and Catherine. If you look at the social media, however, you’ll quickly notice that it’s pretty much dominated by teens. Their pictures make the pages on Facebook look like a high school yearbook. It also explains the ridiculous results of the PCA voting. Very few adults have the leisure to sit around and vote for one show thousands of times. This situation reflects what occurred with the Secret Circle. The CW directed TSC at a primetime adult demo, but teens created the hype. Predictably, TSC failed because kids don’t count during primetime.

    IMO, like TSC, the CW has created B&B with women in mind and failed to attract them in significant numbers. Instead, they created the Nick version of the 1980’s drama. That program wasn’t terrific, but it had the advantage of some good actors; i.e. Linda Hamilton and Ron Perlman. That sure isn’t the case now. As the numbers suggest, B&B is poorly written and acted. It’s a lot of treacle that’s largely missed it’s intended target audience. So, watch it if you must, but you’d probably be better off reading a Nicholas Sparks romance novel. At least that might help improve your reading comprehension. And, btw, one of the other possible benefits of seeing B&B go under is that the teenies will stop posting their inane comments here and go back to Facebook.

  • tscchope

    @RSH HoD is table now, but what happens if it follows Nikita ina ratings plunge in season 3, leaving CW with another poorly rated show that the parent company wants to syndicate? I’m not so sure they’ll take the risk.

    The original The Tommorrow People , which CW say they’ll follow, was a young teen show. It’s 19-49 demo will be horribly skewed young and it’s an 8PM ashow not 9PM.

    B&TB has lots of plot holes season 2 could fix. It’s got potential

  • Immaculate

    “In contrast, B&B has a major acting deficit. KK is a face. Instead of portraying a “tough cop”, she comes across as Cop Barbie. There’s also no chemistry on the show between Catherine and Tess. That’s attributable to neither actress having much talent. The writers have been trying to fill that hole with guest stars, but it’s clearly not working. Moreover, the storyline requires viewers to fill in a lots of gaps and overlook a lot of inconsistencies. I believe that’s what’s behind B&B’s ratings problems.”

    That’s just your lame opinion, and anyone who’s read any of your innumerable contentious posts with the BatB fan base or anyone who has anything positive to say about BatB can take your BatB criticism with a gigantic grain of salt.

  • Albus Tr?n

    I don’t care about any show. I just want NIKITA to be renewed for 4rd season :(

  • Tom

    @ Immaculate

    Of course it’s my opinion. This is an open forum which means I’m free to post comments about any show. And, of course, you Beastlies are free to ignore my posts. That goes without saying. So then, princess, why are you cluttering this forum with self-evident comments?

    This is the second time in recent days you’ve posted completely nonsensical remarks in response to one of my posts. So, as I told you before, take yourself back to Spoiler.com and stop wasting valuable bandwith. And don’t forget to finish your homework.

  • Immaculate

    “Of course it’s my opinion. This is an open forum which means I’m free to post comments about any show.”

    No crap dumb dumb. The same applies to any poster here. No need to regurgitate the obvious you misogynistic pansy. And my “nonsensical” remarks were quite clear and obvious to anyone who has a modicum of sense.

  • RyanCanada

    i think BATB and HOD is safe, i think TCD will be cancelled

  • RyanCanada

    CW would of paid a heavty price for the SATC rights to air TCD, bah bye

  • Angellica .T.

    please renew the secret cirle

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