CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Melanie

    @Gillian — its true that HOD is very stable and that BATB started higher and dropped. Against BATB is the fact that this is what happened with Secret Circle also and it was cancelled rather than given a second season.

    I just don’t know if the CW really renewed HOD with the idea that it would limp along to syndication or if it was just using it as its most stable schedule spackle.

    I have a feeling that the CW would rather renew BATB as it fits in with both the new genre direction the network seems to be headed AND with the goal of establishing a show with procedural elements that make for good syndication prospects IF its ratings stabilize.

    But ratings-wise so far I think you’re right, HOD still has the edge.

  • Gillian

    @ tscchope

    Since the remaining shows aren’t going that great, CW has to take a ‘risk’ no matter what it does – including if it abandons the rest of it’s existing shows and goes for a clean slate.

    HoD could spend the next season steady as a rock. It could rise. It could crash like a stone. The same could be said about BATB or TCD…it’s impossible to know – it’s all a gamble. The only thing the network has to base it’s decision on are the current costs, and current ratings. The fact HoD is steady means the risk of a ‘crash’ is probably lower than it might be if the ratings were more volatile. That helps it’s chances compared to other shows.

    And BATB may have potential. So has any show, really. Again, it’s whether CW perceive the risk is worth the investment of time and money trying to fix the plot holes when they could take a calculated risk elsewhere; perhaps with a fresh show that will benefit from the buzz of ‘newness’.

  • Gillian

    @Melanie

    I guess HoD could survive as ‘stable schedule spackle’ next year too, with the potential for syndication earlier than the ‘less stable schedule spackle’ option of BATB. If BATB stabilised slightly higher than HoD, I guess it isn’t implausible. I just don’t know how important the fitting in to the new genre network direction is – if it were getting better ratings and clearly outperforming HoD I guess this might trump the HoD is nearer to potential syndication. This is why the cw death match is so hard to call, – we just don’t understand all the variables – particularly whether they need to make more space or need spackle to fill up the schedule.

    i do think BATB has more chance than TCD though – i don’t watch either so it’s not a remark about quality or bias, just a sense that the genre thing could swing it, and an idea that there is a fundamental problem in getting teens or young adults to really engage with teens in the 1980s, a premise which can’t easily be addressed by a revamp. (Whatever the flaws of BATB, I have the impression that they are less fundamentally problematic)

  • Anna

    I tried to follow BATB; but got bored with the harpy constantly whining “Tell me about my mother!”

  • JulieDawn

    @Tom.

    1)Wrong again. Actually I was referring to the social media, when I said there are very few people in the 14-17 “demo” you seem to think is making up the majority of the BATB “hype”. Don’t know what social media you’re looking at, but the part of it that is making the noise, doing the voting etc, is not as young as you seem to want it to be.

    2)You say we can’t read, but then apparently neither can you. I’ve already pointed out once to you that it’s Beasties, not Beastlies. If you’re going to criticize, at least get the object of your criticism right.

    3)Immaculate has a point. You missed it. Yes, you are certainly entitled to your opinion, however you always state your opinion it as if it is fact. It is not. It is just the way YOU feel. If you learned how to correctly state an opinion, you might be taken more seriously on this and other matters.

    That’s all I’ve got for now. :)

  • cp

    “@tscchope
    @RSH HoD is table now, but what happens if it follows Nikita ina ratings plunge in season 3, leaving CW with another poorly rated show that the parent company wants to syndicate? I’m not so sure they’ll take the risk.

    The original The Tommorrow People , which CW say they’ll follow, was a young teen show. It’s 19-49 demo will be horribly skewed young and it’s an 8PM ashow not 9PM.

    B&TB has lots of plot holes season 2 could fix. It’s got potential”

    lol So you think just because B&TB has “potential” it’s more worth taking a risk than HoD?

    Not a direct answer to you but I think all shows got potential. We can’t predict that. Rating wise & quality wise no one can predict that, but it’s not even about the syndication at this point. CW just lost both of it’s pioneer shows-90210 & GG. I’m all for CW giving their network a new face with action packed-fantasy shows but they’re not going to abandon everything. Esp when Pedowitz said he hopes to make more series like HoD. And he’s right, HoD was stable since the pilot and I’m sure it brings more viewers weekly because it’s easy to follow. CW needs this. B&TB, or any new upcoming shows that could have a potential for syndication, with better ratings just because it has a better lead in won’t change that.

  • Vortex4

    Let’s not be so quick to judge Cult. Plenty of shows started out weak and finished strong. X-Files, The Office (US), Seinfeld, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, and The Wire all started out weak and then became hits. Cult has only had 2 episodes so far. Let’s give it some time before we talk about it being cancelled.

  • EVESIX

    If TCD is renewed, I call bullsht on CW for favoritism. But as they already did it to Nikita for two years now, I shouldn’t be surprised. This channel reeks of schemes. I knew CW viewers were too dumb to appriciate a show like Cult, guess it’s the Ringer of the year 2013.

  • cp

    @Vortex4
    Let’s not be so quick to judge Cult. Plenty of shows started out weak and finished strong. X-Files, The Office (US), Seinfeld, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, and The Wire all started out weak and then became hits. Cult has only had 2 episodes so far. Let’s give it some time before we talk about it being cancelled.

    AGREE. Aside that it’s promos were horrible – it’s premiere is also out of the blue & paired with HoD I mean what we’re they thinking? So I’m glad that CW is so far not cancelling it. It could have the same fate as The Beautiful Life but hopefully not yet. Hope CW gives this a chance!

    ——-

    Are there any chance they’ll bring back The Secret Circle? Lol. Not their biggest fan but it would be f-n unfair if CW renews B&TB, or it’s just me? Both have the same ratings! If they didn’t renew TSC I don’t see any reason why would they save B&TB. TSC has a much bigger fanbase & imo has more potential to grow but I know that boat has sailed so I say cancel B&TB too.

    Ugh, why can’t CW just give 90210 a final fall season slot with just 10 episodes.

  • cp

    wait wait looking at viewers/ratings of TSC vs B&TB, TSC did MUCH better. if I we’re one of those obsessed TSC fans that keep posting “Please bring it back” I would be mad if B&TB gets a renewal lol.

  • Danielle

    @JulieDawn I applaud you!! well said, though I’m not sure he’s smart enough to listen. :)

  • Danielle

    It’s so silly for the TSC fans to hold it’s cancellation against BATB. Really people, its not BATB’s fault your show was cancelled. I bet a lot of the TSC fans would enjoy BATB but because it fell into TSCs time slot people made the snap desision to not like it without even giving it a chance! If you want to be mad, be mad at the network, not the show.

    @Anna…..They have moved past the “tell me about my mom” phase. I’m sure more info about her mom will come up as the show goes on, but they have answered some initial questions now. And she is no longer using her mom as an excuse to come see him. You should give it another try. Things are really heating up…. ;)

  • juliedawn

    @Danielle

    Thank you! I know it goes in one ear and out the other, but it amuses me to call him on it… #BATB #Beasties lol. ;)

  • StaceysPayton place

    Please keep Hart of Dixie going! I do not get CW on TV, so I watch online at CW’s website. I love this show!! Since I have been waiting for trueblood to come back on, I have became addicted to HOD. Love the actors and plot I give HOD two thunbs up!

  • dd

    What? Are you certain the statistic is accurate? Who watches Hart of Dxie????!!! bored the crap out of me! Definitly don’t understand why SUPERNATURAL is renewed, the show is a trash! and Carrie diaries??? what is that??!

  • Morgan

    They should have kept the secret circle instead of bringing all these sucky shows into the mix that are cancelled anyways or will be

  • SAND

    Please let BATB be renewed, that show is so good and deserves to be on the air.

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