CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Typo: Arrow, Supernatural, and The Vampire Diaries are already renewed!”

    Double AAARGHH! Thanks, fixed.

    Spreadsheet loss lead to backup use which hadn’t been updated!

  • Wright

    Please, please, please cancel 90210 and TCD.

  • HandSanitizer

    i don’t think they will renewed TCD. i mean to get 0.4 in their first season is bad. even HoD never get 0.4 in their first season and second season (the series low for HoD is 0.5 in both season)

  • Just Desserts

    Thanks Bill!!

  • meah

    BATB would be saved and moved to friday..90210 ratings are awful I mean 500,00 viewers this week.as much as I love annalyne mccord I want the show to be canned so she can move to better things.
    I love HOD but since they paired george with Tansy I stopped watching!!such a crappy combo and I don’t like the wade and zoe relationship he’s too immature.but am sure it will be renewed.BYE NIKITA,TCD,CULT,90210

  • CrystalBall

    I’m wondering how many mid-season show have passed one season (and no “touch” is a flop).

    Amongst the CW next pilot the orignals, the selection, the tomorrow people may be the CW’s favorite, maybe they can try a 4th new show starting the season.

  • Angellica .T.

    yes please renew the secret circle

  • hammard

    Hmm, it has just been announced that the Carrie Diaries is to end at the start of April, whilst all the rest of the shows will end at the start of May. Is this likely to mean anything?

  • gene

    Ok, these are my opinions, so obviously, there’s a good chance many won’t agree…

    I liked the first season of Hart of Dixie, but this season, not so much. I found the George/Zoe tension, that become a Zoe/George/Wade triangle interesting in season 1, but in season 2, with Zoe ending up with Wade and George with Tansy… I don’t like it. The message seems to be that finding someone less bright but pretty is a better relationship than being with someone who ‘gets’ you & has similar intellect/interests? Also, there’s less medical drama, everything’s very simplified now. I think they’re trying to the quirky town vibe, like in Gilmore Girls, but they seem to be forgetting that there were some intense, even dour characters that led the stories in that show- it wasn’t all fairy floss stories about whacky types… so considering the material as it stands, a HoD cancellation wouldn’t surprise me, BUT it is the only show that kind of fills a One Tree Hill gap at present.

    The Carrie Diaries, as a concept, just isn’t working. It would take a real change of direction to save it now. The whole concept was flawed, in that SATC focused a lot on scandalous (for it’s time) sexual storylines… so making a show about a teenage virgin was only going to disappoint fans of the original, while alienating teens who might have liked this sweeter take. Personally, I think a teen show set in the eighties, with no SATC link, would have been a whole lot easier to market, and had more chance of success.

    Likewise, Cult is such a weird concept, that unfortunately the network just can’t market it, which is a pity. Even though it has its faults, I like the show- the unusual, kind of meta narrative structure is interesting, but like Last Resort, wrong network/wrong time or something along those lines… just no gelling with audiences en masse.

    I’ve always been amazed by Nikita and 90210′s continued existences, so I’m not going to guess since I’m always wrong there.

    Beauty & The Beast was pretty terrible to start with, but I hung in, and have actually liked the last few episodes… quite a lot, to be honest! I think I just like Kristin Kreuk onscreen, and she has great energy with her Aussie co-star. Sometimes I think the writing with the sister and the partner is a bit off, and the procedural aspects have been reall-y TERRIBLE- but the romance between Vincent and Kat suckered me in. Since the script quality’s gone up rather than down as the show unfolds, I would be interested to see if the series could gain a little more momentum, because if there was another season, I’d watch it. Once again- linking it to the original Beauty and the Beast drastically damaged it’s chances. The doomed lovers vibe is enough to garner the interest of romantic types. The throwback to a classic tv show it barely resembles was a wrong move.

    The real lesson here for CW is to stop trying to use nostalgia for old shows to market very different reincarnations. IT DOESN’T WORK. Linking a tv show to a popular superhero mythology works (ie Smallville, Arrow), but ‘rebirthing’ old classic tv shows doesn’t (90210, Beauty and the Beast). Likewise- making PG teen versions of edgy shows with lots of sexual content… not a winning idea, either.

    On the spin-off front, I can’t wait for the Originals program. Look how well Angel did, from Buffy. And if Elijah’s in this new effort, I’m watching :)

    Although, it comes down to staff writers. If Julie Plec’s overseeing the general arc, then ok. But if The Secret Circle mob are writing it… that’s bad. Eternal vampire characters need convoluted, complex storytelling, not dot-to-dot efforts. Fingers crossed it’s on the dark, intense side of things… Without the high school crew from The Vampire Diaries at the centre of the story, it could definitely be an even more adult incarnation/interpretation, which would be interesting to see…

  • THE OLD MAN

    Awesome picture there, William

  • halloween

    @hammard that was always the plan…but if it was a hit…cw would have ordered a few more this season….show is still a tossup on the disaster that is the cw

  • Angellica .T.

    no offence but HOD should be cancelled its got low ratings so the secret circle should haver never been cancelled

  • halloween

    @Angellica .T.
    no gossip girl or 90210 should have been canceled and the cult show should have never gone to series

  • Potato

    If they really want to send off 90210 at this point, they should just do a 2 hour movie or something.

  • dottydorothy

    Like I said last week, Cult couldnt possibly fare too well, though, they did show the pilot online so maybe more people will watch the second episode live? HoD most probably will be renewed. BATB is mostly cancelled and TCD with 90210 is also probably a goner! also damn it, Bring back Secret Cirlce!

  • Anon

    Just to reiterate, for the record:

    I cannot see the CW doubling down on HoD. A renewal for a third season strongly implies a fourth season, and I am skeptical.

  • Shepherd

    Out of what’s left, I think Nikita and HOD get renewed, and the rest get canceled.

    If the CW does in fact decide to air ANTM in the summer, I also think it makes sense for them to try and launch a new unscripted show this fall.

  • TSC’s Revenge

    LOL, CW is so pathetic. They might as well cancel everything that is not already renewed. Munch on those low ratings CW… num,num,num… hope they taste good!!!

  • Vance

    Hart of Dixie will survive the bear and get a third (and effectively a fourth for syndication purposes) season. It won’t be much longer until Beauty & The Beast pulls 0.4s Ringer-style and it will be cancelled. Arrow will be the lone survivor among rookie shows as Hart of Dixie had been during the previous season.

  • Claudia

    BATB has the best ratings of HOD, Nikita, TCD, Cult, 90210. Im sick and tired of the syndication, Friday’s slot or the Lead in BS!!! OMG None of us are network executives here, specially CW’s, it will come down to MONEY at the end of the day and how they think a show can make in $$$$$ for the next season or how much they develop the story makes, there are no rules put in place, because no matter syndication, fans or anything If a show is not profitable in the long run for a network they will cancel it, simple as that. Ratings is not everything specially to the CW, and we all know that ala Nikita, we will see in May right now chill, relax and enjoy the shows….

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