CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Angellica .T.

    please renew the secret circle

  • Holly

    @Angellica T.,

    Secret Circle is gone. It’s not coming back.

  • Tom

    The situation is as complicated (or even more) than Bill says:

    1) The CW is highly unlikely to launch more than 3 shows at one time.
    2) Friday is even more up in the air. ANTM could air entirely in Summer, and Nikita could be pushed entirely into 2014. Given the issues they have M-Th, I don’t think both is likely, but I could see, say, Hart of Dixie starting in Friday spackle mode until a new show fails.

    Personally, I think Dixie is a lock to return (it’s halfway to syndication, CW is running out of time to get more shows there, the numbers aren’t bad, and they can burn off the final season as Friday spackle (with Nikita out of the way) in Season 4 if they have to). So out of the 8 M-Th slots:
    1) The three renewals are there.
    2) CW probably launches 3 new shows.
    3) Which leaves us with 2 slots free. If Dixie starts off on Fridays, then CW can keep Carrie and Beauty. Otherwise one is dead/held for midseason.

    Speaking of midseason, I think 90210 still has a better than 50% chance of renewal. Assume CW launches three new Fall shows. Therefore, CW will plan for at least two spackle options – three if they are worried about Carrie and/or Beauty holding up in new time slots.
    1) You can assume CW will have one new Spring show.
    2) If Dixie starts on Fridays, that counts as another (with that Friday slot reverting to repeats).
    3) Which leaves, what, exactly, for the last spackle option? 90210, with syndicated backend, makes a lot of sense as emergency material.

  • Lauren

    @Claudia

    “BATB has the best ratings of HOD, Nikita, TCD, Cult, 90210″
    BATB as the worst ratings with the best lead-in. Why BATB fans doesn’t want to understand that???

  • Lauren

    Secret Circle fans are really annoying! God… respect yourselves!!

  • pinkie

    Ringer >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>cult
    Ringer>>>>>>>>>>>>>emily owens
    Ringer>>>>>>>>>>>>>the carriediaries
    The Secret circle>>>>>>>>>BATB
    Ringer and TSC must come back!!!!

  • Spence

    Dramas I think will be renewed (besides Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries and Arrow):
    Nikita
    Hart of Dixie
    Beauty and the Beast

    Dramas I think will be cancelled:
    90210
    Cult
    The Carrie Diaries

    New dramas I would like to see get picked up:
    Oxygen (I’m liking the latest castings and looking forward to this series. Hate the title though)

    The Originals (The Vampire Diaries is my favorite show and I would love to see The Originals getting their own spin-off)

    The Tomorrow People (Greg Berlanti (Arrow!) and Julie Plec (TVD!), need I say more?)

  • HandSanitizer

    @Claudia
    yeah, B&tB have quite a bit nice rating compared to other series. but let’s get this straight, B&tB ratings keep dropping since the premiere (1.2 to what? o.5 now?!). not really good show to keep even for another season. insted, HoD has a better chances at renewal as ratings for this show is steady.

    i don’t think any show will give network any profit in their run unless they got into syndication. profit gain from adevrtisement alone can’t even cover up the production costs.

    @Angellica .T.
    you’re quite delusional are you? it’s almost a year TSC is canceled. MOVE ON! i’m getting sick of TSC delusional fans that keep asking this show to come back. instead keep blaming the network for it’s cancellation, just blaming yourself or other fans for not watching!! ratings drop not because network want to drop, ratings drop because people are not watching!!

  • lois

    Love carrie diraies its funny. Never watch hod anyway. Should be cancelled before the rating get really bad next season if it get renewed. The rating are bad now,

  • Holly

    @HandSanitizer,

    Getting into the whole BATB/CW discussion feels about as dangerous as choosing a side in the pro-/anit-Cas arguments in the Thursday thread but….

    B&tB ratings keep dropping since the premiere (1.2 to what? o.5 now?!).

    You make it sound worse than it is. After the initial post-premiere drop, BATB held pretty steady at .6/.7 since the second episode. Yes, the recent 0.5s are bad and the reason they’re in a death match with Carrie Diaries. But the show hasn’t been losing viewers every week like you imply.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “3) Which leaves, what, exactly, for the last spackle option? 90210, with syndicated backend, makes a lot of sense as emergency material.”

    That unquantifiable chance does vex me. I’m just guessing it’s less than you are.

    “CW is running out of time to get more shows [in syndication]”

    That’s a reasonable hypothesis, but is there any evidence that they’ve done anything that specifically indicates they’re operating under that imagined constraint?

  • juliedawn

    @Bill Gorman

    Well the BATB fandom (including myself!) probably likes your Renew/Cancel Bear a little bit more than your compatriot’s Bubble Bear the other day – although I do find it amusing that the BATB Writers have been taking The Bear to task this morning over the wording! I have been cheering them on, and you’re getting more page views I am sure!

    Based on the current situation I say BATB and HOD and (although it’s nuts) Nikita safe. TCD going either way depending on how many new shows they want to schedule next fall, and Cult and 90210 cancelled (unless they are completely insane and give 90120 a wrap-up season, in which case TCD definitely cancelled).

  • Alan

    Cult and BATB cancelled. HoD, 90210, TCD and Nikita renewed.

  • Tyler

    The only smart move would be to dump both shows and provide a clean slate/new day of original programming buddied with heavy promotion and similarly-styled shows.

  • juliedawn

    @Lauren

    And why don’t you seem to understand that a TVD lead-in is worth very little due to the type of fandom they have…and even less so these days since lead-ins for any show on any network have a much smaller influence than they used to.

  • Wright

    I’m hoping Oxygen (sounds a lot like Roswell and that was my favorite tv show) and The Originals get picked up. Also, I agree that they should bring back The Secret Circle and Reaper while they’re at it.

  • Alan

    with 90210 renewed, they will have a free spot for mid-season. TCD can be renewed for 13 episodes like Life Unexpected and if it crashes on fall, cancel it. HoD gets a full third season, and Nikita too, just for syndication and then cancel it. That would leave two free spots for the 2014 – 2015 seasons, maybe three, if TCD dips.

  • Dave

    Renew:
    Nikita(22ep)
    Dixie(22ep)
    Carrie(13 ep)

    Cancel:
    Beauty
    90210
    Cult
    GG
    Owens MD

  • Mae

    Renew:
    Nikita
    Hart of Dixie

    Cancel:
    BatB
    Cult
    90210
    Carrie Diaries
    Emily Owens
    GG

    I think CW needs to clean house. Desperately. Even it means getting rid of Friday programming all together.

    I just don’t see the point in renewing shows that are already doing so badly this season. Next season could prove disastrous for those shows. I especially see the potential for BatB to drop to 90210 levels next season if renewed. It will just be dead weight at a certain point.

  • Renee

    I would rather just shoot the damn bear.

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