CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • JED

    The CW should just reboot “Dynasty” like TNT did “Dallas” – not only would it be a domestic hit (and pre-sold to an older audience) the younger main cast for it would appeal to their demo (just like on “Dallas” – the kids are all about 20 years old now). Also, just like “Nikita” which is a loss for the network in America (filmed in Canada) it makes huge $ internationally which is the only reason it is still on air. “Dynasty” would pre-sell like “Dallas” did (in over 130 countries prior to broadcast!) and would have the same tone as “Gossip Girl” (and CBS owns the patents to that series). The other one I can’t wait for is “Amazon” (Wonder Woman) which will be an update of the 70s hit series, looking much like “Arrow”. “Hart Of Dixie” is a nice show, they should keep that one.

  • Melody

    I’m just guessing here, but I think they are wise guesses, and an odd change up from last week for me:

    Renewed: Supernatural, Arrow, The Vampire Diaries (so happy these three have already happened), Nikita, Beauty and the Beast, and Hart of Dixie

    Canceled: Carrie Diaries, Cult, 90210, and the two already gone Emily Owens and Gossip Girl.

    What this effectively does is require the CW to order four pilots to series. It seems like a lot for the struggling network, but I think it’s a wise decision. Viewers have been calling for change for years and the abysmal ratings essentially demand a change as well. Now I’m not going to guess which of their pilots will get a shot, but I hope TPTB are seeing the trend – CW viewers have grown up and the network needs to grow up with them!!

  • Justin

    @Mae The CW can’t clean house. They’ve already put a lot of money into promotion, sets, contracts and everything else to cancel more than half their fall line-up. Plus, regardless of what they wish with their sci-fi genre shows, they can’t afford to do it. In a perfect world, all their shows would be run with a Vampire Diaries-type budget and they could afford every single sci-fi show.

    They have to make sacrifices and financial decisions. Running a few modest/mediocre shows that still pull in ad revenue, and (in the lucky chance) are signed for syndication/airing rights, can help raise money for these shows. Not to say that they can’t pick up five really good pilots – it wouldn’t be financially stable.

  • Justin

    Sorry, I meant financially stable as to launch five brand new shows at once for their fall schedule. It would still be better to mix a few mediocre shows with new ones. In case a few fail and they need back-ups for midseason.

  • Bizarro

    I think HOD will get renewed and the race is between TCD and B&TB for renewal. If TCD gets stable with .4’s and .5’s and also with B&TB which I think is a good show but the CW should ever need to renew a scripted show that has fallen that low unless its on friday especially since TCD and B&TB are new shows. 90210 may get a final season but they don’t deserve one, the CW should just order another episode for the fifth season to wrap things up. If their is not enough time to write a script for 5X22 by April.

  • RG-X

    CW will have 4 shows to replace: CULT, 90210, EMILY & GOSSIP GRIL.

    The CW can’t launch more than 4 new shows next season – I think maybe only one more show will get canned.

    CW has enough problems maintaining the 3 top shows let alone launch more than 4 more to gain viewers back.

    They need to grow the network slowly – otherwise all their shows will never get passed a 1.5 rating. Need better shows and better marketing.

  • Jonay

    Why doesn’t The CW just renew all mediocre middle dramas Hart Of Dixie, Beauty and The Beast, and The Carrie Diaries? that way if one of their new fall dramas fail they have a mid season replacement.

  • omabin

    I don’t know why everyone assumes that the cw cannot launch 4 new shows in the fall if one of them is the originals. I think the originals will be pretty much self promoted and won’t require too much promotion to be honest, especially airing after the vampire diaries. They can cut on a second friday show and with those saved resources spend more money in promotion. Monday should be sold as a genre night, a lot as a whole package deal, and tuesdays should be focused on the high profile selection. Why does everyone think this is that much unlikely? They are getting such big names for their pilots, it seems to be they are going in this direction.

    Monday
    The Tomorrow People (Mark Pellegrino was cast as one of the leads)
    The Hundred (They have just casted Henry Ian Cusick as the lead)

    Tuesday
    The Selection
    Hart of Dixie

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Supernatural

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Friday
    Nikita
    Repeats of New Dramas

    Then for midseason, just highlight Oxygen which is basically compatible with any show on schedule and move the lowest performing show to the friday at 9 spot, replacing it with that one. Seems like a good plan to me. People putting the carrie diaries on the schedule should also note that the cw has decided to end about a month earlier than any other show on the net. I don’t think that is typically a good sign, but well.

  • Davis

    @Bill
    How can you still say “death race” and include HOD in this? It’s the clear choice for a renewal! C’mon man- you of all people know this. Steady ratings. Tuesday nights. No lead in. Cheap to make. Closest to syndication.
    I would go as far as to move HART to “certain to be renewed”.

    As for the “likely to be canceled”- I’d move Carrie Diaries to that category and bump 90210 down to “certain to be canceled” however that’s just me. I know I could be off with this. The CW always tends to have a few surprises.

  • halloween

    @Jonay because scoring just a .5 is terrible, not just mediocre…how can they make money off that

  • Ted Craig

    TCD and HoD both renewed. Everybody talking about a new direction for CW, unless you’re in their offices, you don’t really know.

  • chris23

    I wouldn’t be surprised if CW moved a summer reality show onto its Fall Lineup. There are way too many underrated shows to even consider bringing back. 6 shows hitting .5 or below will not cut it even for the CW and if it did then this network will never revamp itself.

    Renewed: Vampire Diaries, ARROW, SuperNaturaL,Nikita(syndication), Hart of Dixie.

    Cancelled: Carrie, Beauty and the Beast, 90210,CULT.

    This would leave CW needing 5 shows on air. Maybe bringing The Hunt in on the fall lineup. I don’t think it would hurt to try this since everything else that is new has bombed, that is outside of Arrow of course. The Originals is a spinoff but will air its pilot as part of The Vampire Diaries season this year so it is like a current show and a self starter. So this leaves 3 shows…

    Mon Tomorrow People and Oxygen

    Tues HUNDRED and The Hunt

    Wed ARROW and SuperNaturaL

    Thur Vampire Diaries and The Originals

    Fri NIKITA and Hart of Dixie (give it a nikita treatment to syndication)

    MIDSEASON: The Selection but I could see Oxygen or Hundred as a possible MS show and swap one of these out.

    I know ANTM is airing this summer but if it is stable enough I wouldn’t rule out a possible timeslot in the winter and spring lineup if some shows don’t pan out that great. Hart of Dixie doesn’t need to be a leadin show and its numbers would be more respectable and sure for syndication by being on Friday Nights.

  • Brandy

    @Ted Craig, first, look at that pilots being made for next season,, only one is a non scifi,supernatrual,fantasay, genre show. .Second, Mark has said he wants to get away from young women demo shows/teen dramas/teen soaps and admitted to liking only Nikita,VD,SPN(but Arrow,Cult are probably on there too).

  • Charmed

    Last night’s 90210 felt like it was slowly starting to wrap it up, with Annie realising her feelings for Liam, I think the writers are preparing for the end soon, if they decide to cancel it.

  • tommie

    I only see Hart of Dixie and Nikita getting renewals. I honestly get the feeling that the CW will clean house come may and they’ll end up rebooting either Monday or Tuesday with all new shows.

  • BBKK

    With Carrie Diaries ending its season on April 8th, what is the CW going to air in its place the rest of April and during May sweeps? Are they just going to air repeats of Carrie or one of their other shows or are they going to start airing one of their reality shows .

    Wouldn’t it have been better to have Carrie take the breaks that Arrow and Vampire are taking so that they could run new episodes during May sweeps? It’s not like this show is like Cult that they wanted to run straight through.

    Last year Ringer completing its run in April signaled its cancellation

  • Win

    @BBKK

    They have already announced OH SIT! as the timeslot replacement.

    I’m hoping they actually just move 90210 into TCD’s slot and air OH SIT! behind it.

    I’m curious to see if that’ll help 90210 any.

  • Charmed

    This should be the schedule!

    MONDAY
    8pm Hart Of Dixie
    9pm The Carrie Diaries

    TUESDAY
    8pm The Tomorrow People
    9pm Oxygen

    WEDNESDAY
    8pm Arrow
    9pm Supernatural

    THURSDAY
    8pm The Vampire Diaries
    9pm The Originals

    FRIDAY
    8pm Nikita
    9pm FALL: Beauty And The Beast SPRING: 90210

    Monday will be the Josh Scharwtz girly low rated night, Tuesday will be the new show sci-fi night, Wednesday will be the same as this season, Thursday the TVD audience is likely to carry over for the spin-off, Friday Nikita will be wrapping it up, with a Beauty And The Beast fall test run to see how it goes without TVD and then 90210 will have a short final season. Possibly 90210 will be canceled and BATB gets the Friday slot for 13 eps with an option for more if it performs well.

  • chris23

    Yeah like moving 90210 to 8 and putting oh sit at 9 behind it is exactly what the CW needs.

    The New Monday Nights coming to the CW this Spring with all new 90210 and Oh sit.. Yeah that sounds amazing doesn’t it? I can see the ratings now. CW averages a 0.2 and 500,000 viewers while they lose to tv land repeats of a 1980s show on its 1,000th repeat airing!!

    I will say this 90210 and Hart of Dixie should never be a leadin show. I don’t care how “stable” Hart of Dixie is, but moving it to 8 has proven to be a bad leadin show not to mention it did not grow versus last season.

  • pedro

    The CW could use Friday nights to begin reprise supernatural and smallville since the beginning!

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