CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Melanie

    Some commenters are deluding themselves. None of the remaining shows are a ‘lock for renewal.’ If they were, the show would have been included in the early pick-ups with Arrow, TVD & SPN.
    I agree with the Renew/Cancel, Nikita – already on Friday and close to syndication with reportedly a market overseas – has the best shot at renewal.
    As for 90210 and the other three — Lord only knows what the CW will do with them. I know what they WANT to do with all of them — dump them all in favor of something that gets better ratings.
    I honestly think which one or ones they keep is going to depend on the pilots and what makes sense in terms of a cohesive schedule. Do they give BATB or Carrie a second season like they gave HOD last year? Maybe.
    Do they give HOD a 3rd season? Maybe. Again, I don’t think a third season is a lock for HOD even though its arguably the steadiest of the bubble shows, its not necessarily in the same type of situation that Nikita was when it garnered its 3rd season. It won’t pair well with any of the genre pilots.

  • chris23

    @ CHARMED

    I like your schedule except for Monday Nights. Carrie isn’t worth renewing and Hart of Dixie shouldn’t be an 8:00 show that will provide as an unworthy leadin for the show behind it.

    I did agree with you about Wednesday and Thursday Nights. I put Nikita at 9 as well. I also placed Tomorrow People with Oxygen except I paired these shows on Mondays instead. I’m not sure about BATB however 90210 should conclude in the late summer with a possible 4-6 episode wrap up and that is being very generous if the CW decides to renew it at all.

  • jody

    PLEASE renew TBAT, this show Has a lot of viewers from all over the world

  • michael

    i knew the cult was gonna get canceled because people don’t go missing by watching a TV show and even more why was it that particular show and it never explained it they just went looking for his brother.

  • Tom

    @Bill “That’s a reasonable hypothesis, but is there any evidence that they’ve done anything that specifically indicates they’re operating under that imagined constraint?”

    No, there isn’t – and you can easily view Secret Circle’s cancellation as evidence against.

    Which is why I am bizarrely looking forward to CW’s renewals over everyone else. It will be legitimately interesting to see which of their shows get renewals and what that indicates.

  • Danielle

    Die batb! TCD deserves the renewal, it’ greatly written and it doesn’t need to be behind any other shows to score batb-like ratings.

  • Marsinvestigations1@gmail.com

    M: TCDiaries / New
    T: HoD / New
    W: Arrow / Supernatural
    T: VD / Originals
    F: Nikita / repeats – top model (?)

    Mon is too weak to launch something new and BatB will crater without support from a leadin. Carrie at least is a self starter and could maybe grow as word of mouth is strong.

  • gerry

    juliedawn – And why don’t you seem to understand that a TVD lead-in is worth very little due to the type of fandom they have…and even less so these days since lead-ins for any show on any network have a much smaller influence than they used to.

    are you seriously saying that the network isn’t paying attention to the drop from tvd to batb? tell that to tsc. moreover, saying that tvd and batb don’t have a similar audience due to differences in fandom…. well, that’s just funny.

  • gerry

    @ charmed, your schedule is perfect, i’ve been saying HoD and TCD would pair well. but i think TCD at 8 and HoD at 9. other than that, your sched is perfect.

  • Laticia Jones

    MONDAY:
    8.00 90210 (10-episode final season)
    8.00 America’s Next Top Model (mid-season)
    9.00 The Hunt

    TUESDAY:
    8.00 Hart of Dixie
    9.00 Perfect Score (half-an-hour)
    9.00 Oxygen (mid-season)

    WEDNESDAY:
    8.00 Arrow
    9.00 Tomorrow People

    THURSDAY:
    8.00 The Vampire Diaries
    9.00 The Originals

    FRIDAY:
    8.00 Nikita
    9.00 Supernatural

    Despite 90210’s terrible ratings, syndication values, potentially more DVD sales and the fact that writers have hardly any time to wrap up the series now indicate renewal, a la Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill. Scheduling ANTM on Mondays with a new reality show helps with consistency, and Hart of Dixie’s ratings aren’t bad enough to warrant not securing syndication. After all, it will only be one season off that next season if it is renewed.
    It would be wise to use Arrow and The Vampire Diaries as lead-ins, especially since Tomorrow People fits the same theme and The Originals is a spin-off. It worked for NCIS: Los Angeles and Private Practice pretty well. Supernatural is nearing the end of its life, has gained new viewers this year and has proven successful in this timeslot before. Nikita has improved since moving to the earlier slot which should continue.

  • Jane Elliot

    @Tom:

    Which is why I am bizarrely looking forward to CW’s renewals over everyone else. It will be legitimately interesting to see which of their shows get renewals and what that indicates.

    I totally agree. The CW was the only network that shocked me last year in May (I honestly hadn’t expected either Nikita or HoD to come back) and this year they literally have half of their shows on the bubble, none of which have any real and clear advantage over the other in the ratings. I can’t wait to see what actually ends up happening.

  • Laticia Jones

    Also, in regards to cancellations, The Carrie Diaries is a brand new show, has hardly any episodes, and isn’t improving. Renewing it would be a bad business decision, and making room on next season’s schedule indicate certain cancellation for this flop.
    Beauty and the Beast has the same dilemma as The Secret Circle had: not securing a large enough audience after The CW’s highest rated show, The Vampire Diaries. Couple that with an opportunity for a vampire double-up next season, and you’ve got yourself no reason to keep BATB around.

  • Mi

    I can’t see the CW debuting 2 new shows at the same day so as much as I hate it, I think they’ll split up the combo of SPN and Arrow, and my guess for their schedule next year is:

    Monday
    8PM The Selection
    9PM HoD

    Tuesday
    8PM The Hundred
    9PM SPN (the only show that would do well in this slot)

    Wednesday
    8PM Arrow
    9PM The Tomorrow People

    Thursday
    8PM TVD
    9PM The Originals

    Friday
    8PM Nikita
    9PM 90210\B&tB\repeats

    If 90210 or B&tB get renewed, it would be for a short season and not for a 22 episodes season. TCD and Cult will definitely be cancelled.

  • halloween

    wow things gotta so bad this year
    4 new shows for fall, but 1 is a cheap reality show

    MONDAY:
    8.00 Hart of Dixie
    9.00 NIKITA

    TUESDAY:
    8.00 SUPERNATURAL
    9.00 SELECTION

    WEDNESDAY:
    8.00 Arrow
    9.00 Tomorrow People

    THURSDAY:
    8.00 The Vampire Diaries
    9.00 The Originals

    FRIDAY:
    8.00 America’s Next Top Model
    9.00 NEW REALITY SERIES

    midseason 2 new scripted and 1 reality

  • Skylar James

    @Marsinvestigations1@gmail.com: TCD is not a self starter, its a self downer, its ratings are crap. You don’t know if BATB would get the same ratings on a Monday, its never been there. Its crappy retention just means its not compatible with TVD audience.
    Both shows deserve to be cancelled, and I think the CW might just do that.

  • Brandon

    See The Secret Circle never went down that far so please dont compare the tw.. >)

  • SJ

    Monday:

    New Drama
    New Drama

    Tuesday:

    Hart of Dixie
    Beauty and the Beast

    Wednesday:

    Arrow
    New Drama

    Thursday:

    Vampire Diaries
    New Drama

    Friday:

    Nikita
    Supernatural

    It’s not perfect, but what else can they do?

  • Ashley

    I think @omabin has the best schedule. Hell, put repeats of Arrow or SPN on Fridays at 9pm and it’ll get better ratings than most of these freshman shows.

    I think they should only give 90210 a last season if they think the extra money in syndication is worth it. Otherwise, a repeat on the schedule would make more sense.

    Still think that the Originals shouldn’t count as a new show because it’s a self-starter. Premiering 3 extra shows in the fall plus the Originals is the way to go.

  • Nick

    What the CW should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: America’s Next Top Model/The Selection (new)
    9: Hart of Dixie

    Tue-
    8: The Tomorrow People (new)
    9: Arrow

    Wed-
    8: The Hundred (new)
    9: Supernatural

    Thu-
    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Originals (new) 

    Fri-
    8: Nikita (full final season)
    9: Repeats

  • brian I

    Still cheering for Emily Owens! aha

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