CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • JulieDawn

    @gerry

    Not saying they aren’t looking at it, but you are seriously deluded and incredibly out of touch with today’s fandom if you don’t understand how the fanbases of shows like this work.

    I’m simply saying it doesn’t have the same weight that it might have with different programming or in a different day and age. And if you read through some of the recent threads on the CW & BATB, you’ll see I’m not the only one.

  • omabin

    @Ashley,

    Thank you. And that has been my point too: the originals shouldn’t count as a brand new show, because it will be pretty much self promoted when it launches, it won’t require that much promotion, especially following the vampire diaries. Hell, if there is anything that all these failures in the post tvd slot shows have taught us (nikita, the secret circle, beauty and the beast) is that these shows can open big, so the audience from tvd always gives it a shot, they only need to be good to stick around. So 3 new shows + the originals is not irrealistic, especially if you promote the two new genre nights from monday as a pack.

  • Charmed

    I think they should keep TCD and HOD and put them together on Monday so the schedule has a variety other than being a SyFy clone.

  • Adrian

    BATB has a tiny edge over TCD, it has 9 more episodes, so it will need less episodes in the future to get to syndication. So I think Carrie is certain cancellation, while Beauty is just likely cancellation. Of course they both should be cancelled but who knows with the CW, stranger things have happened.

    90210 will be cancelled. “Potential syndication” and “dvd sales” will never make up for the money they lose with its 0.3 and 0.2 ratings.

  • AO

    If they renew anything else M-Th it will be Hart.

    One year closer to syndication, consistently decent ratings on Monday & Tuesday without the benefit of a lead in or out, little year-to-year decline. Unless it starts pulling 0.2’s it will be back next year.

  • Kavyn

    90210 already hit syndication and 100 episodes, why bother renewing it if it’s currently getting ratings tied to a Friday show?

  • Heather

    Don’t cancel 90210!!! It’s a great show. I already miss Gossip Girl. Other than these show if 90210 is cancelled only Vampire Diaries is they only show I plan on watching from the CW from now on

  • Lainey

    The CW should just announce HART OF DIXIE’s obvious renewal now…

  • Dan

    @Bill – I’m assuming all ANTM episodes will air during the summer and CW will start again in October. I highly doubt CW will air an unscripted series on Fridays and I doubt they will make drastic changes to their schedule. I have no way of knowing what CW will actually do but I’m going with the history repeats itself rule for CW. Here are the facts

    1. CW has always given veterans a final wrap up season, Smallvlle, One Tree Hill, and Gossip Girl all got one. 90210’s numbers are garbage but a short 10 episode season is good enough to wrap up a veteran that was once a flagship drama. Given this rule 90210 is renewed for a short season.

    2. CW has NEVER cancelled a drama after 2 or 3 full seasons. While they often cancel a drama after 1 season, they have yet to axe a show after 2 or 3 full seasons likely due to syndication. Given this rule Nikita and Hart of Dixie are safe through next season

    3. CW hasn’t renewed 2 new fall dramas since Fall 2007. Every fall CW premieres 2 or 3 dramas and of those 3 only 1 gets another season. The lone exception was in May 2008 when CW renewed Gossip Girl and Reaper however Reaper was for midseason and did not survive beyond the next season. Every season after that only 1 new drama survived (90210 from fall 2008, Vampire Diaries from fall 2009, Nikita from fall 2010, Hart of Dixie from fall 2011 and Arrow from all 2012) since Arrow is a breakout hit and already renewed, I don’t think CW would renew Beauty and the Beast in addition to Arrow since its retention out of VD isnt that great and there’s no guarantee it can lead off a night.

    4. This isn’t really fact but more of an observation, sometimes in a season of a lot of dramas (This season is 5) CW will renew another new drama from the season that has done OK in hopes that it will do better. This happened 3 years ago with Life Unexpected and The candidate for this year is The Carrie Diaries. while LUX was ultimately axed in its second season, CW may order 13 more TCD eps for fall to see how it does. TCD does lead off CW’s troubled mondays better than 90210 and GG and the way CW thinks is that a series that can lead a night off well is better then a show that can retain OK out of a hit.

    Its very possible that 1 of these 3 “CW Facts” gets broken this May, but I’m going with history repeating itself until CW’s schedule is stable enough. Since ratings are all generally the same, I believe CW will save Nikita, Hart of Dixie, and Carrie Diaries, while cancelling Cult and Beauty and the Beast.

    Here’s my schedule

    Monday
    8:00 Carrie Diaries
    9:00 90210 (Final season) / NEW Drama Spring

    Tuesday
    8:00 Hart of Dixie
    9:00 NEW DRAMA

    Wednesday
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 NEW DRAMA

    Thursday
    8:00 Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals

    Friday
    8:00 Nikita
    9:00 Supernatural

    With this schedule I think CW will keep TCD, HOD, Arrow, VD, and Nikita all in their current slots while moving the aging Supernatural to Fridays with compatible Nikita. I do expect 90210 to return for a final season to timeshare with another drama and for CW to try to launch new shows out of HOD, Arrow, and VD 9:00 Tues, Wed and Thurs.

  • andri

    Cancel 90210 now.I abhorred Carrie Diaries. Bring back the cancellation bear to speak for moi.you never know he might save cult or not

  • Dave

    @Dan

    It’s safe to assume that Supernatural won’t go back to Friday. The show is utter garbage but it’s the third highest rated CW show. Realistically, it belongs on a weekday since The CW is struggling on those days.

    I do see it on Tuesday or Monday next season to help lead out a new series but not on Friday.

    I’m eager to see what The CW will do next season. Ghe only thing guaranteed in my book is that TVD will continue to anchor Thursday and ARROW will continue to anchor Wednesday.

    I hope we see another shuffle next season like we saw last season.

  • Ashley

    @omabin

    A completely new sci-fi themed Monday night is the way to go. They need to brand a new night like they did so successfully with Wednesday nights. And then make Thursday the vampire-themed night, and you have 3 theme nights to build around.

  • Davis

    @Dan @Everyone else saying 90210 will get a final season

    It’s true that CW has always given final seasons to their most popular, long lasting shows… however- NONE of those shows were EVER scoring 0.2’s and 0.3’s! NONE. They were also not pulling in LESS THAN half a million viewers for new episodes. The CW can’t possibly be able to pump anymore money into this mess. It’s not a “classic” CW show, and it’s nowhere nearly as well-written, well-liked or an overall part of pop culture like One Tree Hill or Gossip Girl. To compare this crap to those shows is an insult. 90210 is like watching six year old girls play barbies, but with less believable scenarios. It’s few “fans” should consider themselves lucky it gets to finish the season and hasn’t already been yanked from the schedule. THAT’s the “farewell”.

  • Dave

    @Davis

    I concur completely about 90210.

  • Dan

    @Dave – My guess is, since we saw a shuffle last season, we wont see one this year. As far as Supernatural goes, the only reason CW would move it to Fridays is to make room for new shows on the weekdays. If anything I could see them moving it to Mondays at 9 and airing a final 90210 season Fridays at 9 but Again SPN and Nikita are more compatible as are TCD and 90210. I agree Arrow and Vampire Diaries will remain in their slots to launch new dramas but what they will do with Supernatural remains to be seen. It is an aging drama, it still does well but how much longer does CW expect it to last.

  • Terry

    And it’s “affect” not “effect.”

  • Dan

    @Davis – You make a lot of good points but you do need to know that CW is a terribly low rated network that has few hits like VD, SPN, Arrow and barely anything else. I wouldn’t be surprised if 90210 got cancelled in May but I do expect CW to try to get a short farewell year. It’s a series that helped the CW in their garbage 2008-2009 season and did well enough until VD set the standard.

    To you, 90210 may not seem as buzzed as OTH or GG but to The CW maybe they see it as a flagship series during their third season when their current shows werent doing so well. I may be completely wrong and 90210 may very well be cancelled in May but CW trying for a final season isn’t completely far fetched.

  • JJA

    After the disaster that was Gossip Girl’s final season, I don’t think 90210 will get that far.

  • Holly

    @Bill/Robert,

    Last year one of the factors one of you (sorry, bad memory) had in favor of 90210 was that it was the only CBS production. Hart of Dixie is a CBS/WB co-production and Beauty and the Beast is a CBS production while Carrie Diaries is WB. Do you think that will figure in the death match?

  • Mae

    @ everyone moving SPN back to Friday:

    WHY? SPN is working during the week. It is able to pull 0.9-1.0 consistently, which by CW standards is REALLY good. So why move it to Friday where it will go back to pulling round 0.7’s?

    CW needs SPN during the week. SPN gives the CW more bang for their buck as a M-Thur show.

    I have seen schedules where people are moving SPN back to Friday and keeping BatB or TCD during the week. This is baffling to me. Neither show is doing anything right now to merit taking up a prime M-Thur spot over SPN.

    Just because SPN is aging does not mean it should be shipped back to Friday. If it can pull decent ratings, it does not matter how old it is.

    SPN and Nikita were never super compatible. They were stuck together. And SPN did better than Nikita. I don’t understand why people think this is such a winning combo. It was a mediocre pairing at best.

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