CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Miguel

    CW shouldn’t have cancelled Emily Owens M.D …they should’ve given it time to grow an audience…(More promo wouldnt have hurt) but Im sometimes mesmerized by the moronic decision making from the C.W and the NBC execs.

  • Mark Wood

    Claudia

    B&tB has a better season average then HoD, but thats it.

    Factor out the fall (as new shows spike in ratings and then drop quick down to numbers that are going to be accurate for their show), and the difference between Hart of Dixie and Beauty the Beast is within rounding. Meaning since we don’t see exact numbers, either show could technically have the better adults 18-49 score.

    But Hart of Dixie is doing better in adults 18-34 (the demo that actually pays at a higher rate then 18-49 per person), and its doing better by a margin that is beyond rounding.

    Ie, currently Hart of Dixie would generate more real revenue (assuming both are equal on the Income Index) then Beauty and the Beast.

  • Mark Wood

    Miquel

    When you start losing hundreds of thousands a dollars an hour, see how willing you are to let shows last that are doing worse then any other show Monday – Thursday.

    The CW already loses money, you want it to bleed out, are you utterly insane. Your damn lucky it was on the CW, where it got to run its full episode order. Any other network with that level of failure (percentage wise in relationship to the rest of the network) would have killed it after 1 to 3 episodes tops.

  • Bitter Ringer Fan

    Flop of Dixie is safe with its 0.5s and 0.6s and as mentioned before is about to pull a Nikita! , TCD is dead because it pulled 0.4 2 weeks in a row and it’s just in the middle of its season order so it’s gonna get worse, Cult is dead from the start. The last battle is going to be between Flop0210 and BATB. My money is on BATB getting renewed cuz its ratings are higher (although i’m not sure how much it benefits from TVD’s lead in), while 90210 might get canceled because its ratings are worse than GG last season (2011-2012) so the short final season would be an even bigger disaster than GG, but i wouldn’t be shocked if it gets the pity renewal.

  • Mark Wood

    Dan

    It is highly illogical to think just because three other aging shows got saved for a final season that 90210 will.

    Right now end of February 90210 is averaging .50 on this index.

    Last year at this same time the lowest performer was getting .67 and that wasn’t Gossip Girl, it was at a .80. Just in adults 18-49 Gossip Girl is doing roughly 65% better versus that season, then 90210 is doing versus this season.

    Two years ago One Tree Hill was doing a .97 while Smallville had a 1.04. Both of those shows ended due to actors and contracts not the CW.

    With Gossip Girl last year it still managed to have the 2nd highest w 18-34 average on the CW. Its general adult 18-34 was better then most shows on the CW. And Gossip Girls has always done well on the income Index (upscale viewers increase ad rates).

    Not a single one of the applies to 90210.

    And they sure don’t compare to the situations of One Tree Hill and Smallville.

  • Dakota

    Monday
    Hart of Dixie
    Blink (new)

    Tuesday
    The Hundred (new)
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Tomorrow People (new)

    Thursday
    Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new)

    Friday
    NIKITA
    repeats of new shows

    One of 90210, TCD, and BaTB will get a midseason or the Friday slot.
    I predict Oxygen will be picked up as well.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Last year one of the factors one of you (sorry, bad memory) had in favor of 90210 was that it was the only CBS production. Hart of Dixie is a CBS/WB co-production and Beauty and the Beast is a CBS production while Carrie Diaries is WB. Do you think that will figure in the death match?”

    Good question. Sadly, to be able to answer based on recent history, I wish I’d recorded the history of the share of airtime over the years between CBS and WB, and I’m too lazy to go back now!

  • Mark Wood

    NOt only that, but you also then would have to know which pilots get picked up and what studios they came from. At this stage way to earlier for those thoughts.

  • Dave

    @Bill

    2011-2012

    CBS:
    90210
    Top Model

    CBS/WB:
    Vampire Diaries
    Gossip Girl
    Hart of Dixie
    Ringer
    Secret Circle

    WB:
    Nikita
    Supernatural
    One Tree Hill

    Does that help?

  • Dave

    2010-2011

    CBS:
    90210
    Top Model

    CBS/WB:
    Vampire Diaries
    HELLCATS
    Gossip Girl
    Life Unexpected

    WB:
    NIKITA
    Supernatural
    Smallville
    One Tree Hill

  • Tom

    The one issue that hasn’t been discussed yet is how, or even if, the CW’s decision making is going to be affected by a desire to improve it’s image. Currently, the CW has the same reputation for programming that Japan had for manufacturing a half century ago. Most recently, both Carrie and Cult were dead on arrival. Unlike B&B, most viewers didn’t even bother to tune in before kicking them to the curb. Worse, with the exception of its three “top” shows, it matters very little which others are renewed. They’re all basically toe up and have no prospects for increasing their viewership.

    The CW may claim to make money by licensing shows for audiences overseas, but that won’t alter the fact that they’re losing a lot of money domestically on the same shows because of low ratings. Furthermore, while the CW had a modest success with Arrow, that show’s ratings are slipping which is symptomatic of declining viewership across the network. Plus, TVD and SPN are aging which will inevitably affect their ratings as well. In short, the CW is a total mess with no future prospects unless it ponies up a lot of cash to fix its schedule.

    In order to start reclaiming it image, the CW should begin by cancelling both Carrie and B&B. These are failing first year shows that should be easily replaceable. Since 90210 has run its course, it too should be cancelled. This creates three openings for the introduction of new hopefully better conceived series. Finally, in a bow to the syndication gods, Nikita and HOD should be retained. This won’t help the CW’s image, but it will assist in maintaining overall profitability.

    The USA network has had no problem producing a plethora of successful series that typically outperform the CW’s lower tier programs. So, there’s no reason why the CW cannot step up. I’m not absolutely convinced though that these guys are particularly sincere when it comes to producing top flight entertainment. That’s based, in part, on the rumors that the CW was at one time contemplating reanimating the LA Complex. Keeping the worst television drama of this century alive would have signaled that the CW was more concerned with looting the market place than in providing quality entertainment. We’ll see what happens, but if Carrie and B&B are still around next season, that will say a lot about the CW’s business philosophy.

  • feinn

    Hart of Dixie is certain renewal based on that it gets same ratings as tcd and batb. CW put a lot of money into those flops with weak results. Also I think the cw made a mistake not renewing secret circle for 13 episodes, it was a small risk worth taking. The show performed awful at the end but for 75% of season is was doing pretty decent

  • Jenny

    HOD has decent buzz, and has a loyal audience and can self-start with no lead-in. B&B is below what TSC was pulling last year, and is likely to fall much more in the spring. Shipping it off to Fridays would only bring even lower numbers, so it make sense to cancel it.

  • Wanda

    Beauty and The Beast, and HOD renewed 90210 gets a short season. If the ratings go up for Cult and TCD renew them and air online. I don’t want to see any show cancelled. I certain Nikita will renewed. I’m still not over Ringer being cancelled. The CW needs to air shows on the weekend.

  • Wanda

    Beauty and The Beast has a loyal following. All the shows do. The CW needs to air some of there shows online only too.

  • Ade

    How I think the CW schedule should look like

    Monday
    8pm: Oxygen
    9pm: The Tomorrow People

    Tuesday
    8pm: Hart of Dixie
    9pm: Beauty and the Beast

    Wednesday
    8pm: Arrow
    9pm: Supernatural

    Thursday
    8pm: The Vampire Diaries
    9pm: The Originals

    Friday
    8pm: Nikita
    9pm: Repeats

  • BPKK

    Wow, I didn’t realize Carrie Diaries was still filming. For some reason, I thought they had finished filming their 13 episodes back in December so shooting additional episodes wasn’t an option.

    So unless the show is like Cult and only intended to shoot 13 episodes per season, I think not getting any additional episodes ordered and having the CW announce that they’ll be airing a game show rather than holding some episodes to air during May sweeps just 3 weeks after the series premiere, points toward non-renewal for this show.

    Maybe if the show had premiered with even BATB type numbers (2.78 mil /1.2)rather than a 1.6 mil / 0.6) after all of the promotion, it might have received orders for a few more episodes this season.

    Carrie, Cult and the late Emily Owens are also the only CW shows that didn’t find a buyer in the UK, the most lucrative international sales market for US shows apparently.

    Looking at what happened to Nikita and 90210’s numbers this season when they each shifted timeslots, does anyone else think that the 8pm slot on the CW is good for an additional 0.1 to 0.2 increase in the ratings? When Nikita was airing at 9 it ranged from .2-.4 but since moving back to 8pm it’s doing .3-.5. When 90210 was at 8 it’s rating went from .4-.6 but now it’s .2-.4.

  • Angellica .T.

    please renew secret circle it had way more ratings than HOD and B&TB

  • Renee

    @Ade I could go for that schedule.

    @BPKK One of the factors for Nikita at 9PM was airing against Grimm and Fringe. When it went to 8 it no longer had that competition.

  • Kavyn

    Not to mention Nikita was airing after ANTM…

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