CW: 'Cult' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But How Does That Affect The Death Race Between 'Beauty & The Beast,' 'Hart Of Dixie' & 'The Carrie Diaries'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.44
90210 :cry: :cry: (canceled 2/28) 0.50
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.79
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.83
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.89
Supernatural renewed 1.38
Arrow renewed 1.51
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.83

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2/28 Update: 90210 has been officially canceled.
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Even on the vanishingly low rated CW, Cult's 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere rating last week marks it as certain to be canceled.

The more interesting question that the Cancellation Bear gets all the time is "How does Cult being canceled effect the death race between the mediocre rated trio of Beauty & The Beast, Hart Of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries?" (Ok, those are the bear's words, but the gist is there.)

While the CW is in many ways like a lower rated version of its syndication mothership CBS, their limited budget, vanishing ratings, and possible strategy in flux make predicting their moves at least a bit harder.

It's reasonable to believe that the CW will premiere three new dramas next Fall (but not virtually certain like CBS).

In that case, they only have to cancel two of their Spring dramas, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

Looking at the predictions above, Cult's gone, 90210's probably gone, then every other show is safe!

Not so fast.

What if 90210 gets a miracle final season in the Fall? Cancel a different drama than 90210.

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

Even though the CW could cancel just two spring dramas, there's plenty for fans of that third, and fourth drama in the chase in front of the cancellation bear to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • June

    I would love for Hart to be renewed but will be waiting for the late spring ratings before making any conclusions. That’s what ended TSC last year.
    This show doesn’t seem to be a great leadin but then neither was Gossip Girl last season and Hart still grew out of its GG leadin for most episodes. Guess it just depends on the strength of the show.

  • JJA

    When Beauty & The Beast started, I didn’t think it was nearly as bad as its critics said it was. Sadly, that was just me needing time to figure out it was bad.

    I finally took it off my DVR, after having to watch the last two episodes in fast-forward. If it weren’t for the VD lead, it would have Cult-like ratings by now.

    As for HOD, I wouldn’t worry too much about it dipping in the spring. Its ratings this year have been almost exactly the same as last year’s.

  • herpderp

    BATB won’t be canceled. The CW has to maintain a 50/50 ratio of CBS and WB productions. If 90210 gets canceled, then BATB is safe. They’re the only lone CBS productions on the network. One of them will go, but not both.

  • Mark

    Next year:

    Monday:
    8pm – Hart of Dixie
    9pm – The Carrie Diaries (13 episode)

    Their non-supernatural show night. Give TCD a 13 episode order to see if it grows at all. If it doesn’t perform well, then cancel it before spring.

    Tuesday:
    8pm – OXYGEN
    9pm – Supernatual

    Oxygen will have to self start like Arrow. And put Supernatural in the “death slot” because it has a loyal fan base that will follow it to its new night.

    Wednesday:
    8pm – Arrow
    9pm – THE TOMORROW PEOPLE

    Use Arrow to launch TTP.

    Thursday:
    8pm – The Vampire Diaries
    9pm – THE ORIGINALS

    No brainer.

    Friday:
    8pm – Nikita
    8pm – Beauty and the Beast (13 episode order)

    Midseason:
    THE HUNDRED
    THE SELECTION

  • pashektu

    Emily Owens M.D. should never have been cancelled. I’d like to see them bring it back or another network pick it up.

  • Dan

    @Richard Steven Hack – CW standards have lowered. You’re saying Carrie Diaries has no chance when it has done the best for Mondays better than Gossip Girl and 90210. That may not be much but what did CW expect? They expected Carrie Diaries to be a hit but a hit show on the CW comes around one roughly every 3 years and Arrow was this years Golden show.

    With 5 dramas debuting this season, its possible Arrow may be the only one renewed but its more likely CW renews a second drama. That drama will be Carrie Diaries since Emily Owens is cancelled, and Cult & Beauty and the Beast will be axed in May.

    @HerpDerp – If one of 90210 and Beauty and the Beast goes then its BATB. CW would rather invest in a final wrap up season for 90210 then invest in another season of a show that retains less then The Secret Circle did out of Vampire Diaries. Its easy to give a show a final wrap up season but not easy to invest ina show for a second yer that The CW is looking to have for a while.

    I’m assuming that Hart of Dixie and Nikita will get renewed due to syndication and both do OK for their timeslots. I doubt 90210′s renewal or cancellation will have an effect on whether or not BATB will be renewed. What people need to realize is that the battle between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast for the slot and that battle was a lot like Secret Circle vs. Hart of Dixie. While TSC’s ratings were higher, HOD built on GG and was more likely to hold better on its own, that and production costs were lower. TCD does better in its timeslot and my guess is The CW has the post VD timeslot reserved for the spinoff next season.

  • Autumn

    I will say something similar I said on another thread. With Cult and 90210 likely gone (really a short season is not warranted in the slightest), I think that they need to cancel one more show. It should be The Carrie Diaries. It doesn’t fit in with where the network is headed. It is also getting similar ratings to Emily Owens. I think the solution is simple.

    People cry retention with BATB and that it would also not gain new viewers. I disagree. I think it has the most potential out of the new shows to gain viewers over the summer, particularly since it was promoted much less than the Carrie Diaries and still did better. It also has improved immensely from the weak pilot and could by awesome by season 2. Has happened many times in the past.

    Some claim that BATB needs to be canceled because of the retention but I think it should just be moved to Friday night to be paired with Nikita. HOWEVER, BATB should be the lead in and NOT Nikita.

    The problem with BATB on Thursday night is not only that it does not pair well with The Vampire Diaries (Originals should go there) but it has the most competition (i.e. Greys, Person of Interest, and Glee). On Friday night, the competition would be slim to none and the audience BATB does have seems to be pretty loyal and passionate which could help spread the word, if given enough time for people to catch up.

    Also, BATB has a similar ‘type’ of fan base as Moonlight which did well on Fridays at 8/7c. If they tried to move BATB to 9/8c, it would fail I think because it would be up against Grimm and Haven (also urban fantasies) and likely has much of the same fan base. It wouldn’t work. Moving Nikita there would work because it will only be renewed for syndication purposes anyway. I don’t know why the network doesn’t try this for an experiment personally. Moreover, BATB has a better chance of being renewed than The Carrie Diaries because it does well internationally. The new CW President seems very interested in this.

    Hart of Dixie will stay because it is doing much better than The Carrie Diaries AND is also a very inexpensive show. They might as well keep it where it is or let one of the new shows be the lead in, considering that worked for Arrow. Unfortunately, I don’t think any of the new pilots will pair well with this. Perhaps the coma one but I don’t think that one has a chance. OR the Mary Queen of Scots just because it is different from the other pilots. Maybe Oxygen because it is romantic.

    Other than that, they could do a Dystopian night with The Hundred and The Selection on Monday or a Sci-Fi night by replacing one with The Tomorrow People, pick up The Originals for Thursday, and just whatever pilot is best for Tuesday.

    Personally, I would drop HOD as well and just go all out genre but I don’t think that is a possibility. Still, I think it would work (one night of epic YA romance with Oxygen and The Selection; one night of Sci-Fi with The Hundred (Desmond has been cast!) and the Tomorrow People (Plec and Berlanti are on board), Arrow and Supernatural, the vampire night, and then the outside the government/conspiracy night with Nikita/BATB. It would be perfect.

  • Charmed

    ^So many fan excuses

  • herpderp

    @Dan

    Have you even seen the ratings for 90210? There’s no way it’ll get renewed. While BATB isn’t doing so well, its numbers are better. Why renew an aging show with crap ratings compared to a freshman show with better ratings?

    FACT: BATB is profitable to CBS Studios. They gain $1.5 million per episode in international sales. Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/988901-cbs-management-discusses-q3-2012-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=2

    90210 will get canceled, and a CBS produced pilot will get a series order in its place to even out the CBS-WB ratio that The CW follows.

  • Claudia

    @Charmed seriously whats your problem if your beloved HOD stays on air why are you hating so much on #BATB all the rants I read is against BATB, if BATB stays on air I could care less about the other shows as I care less now….

  • feinn

    @herpderp doesn’t matter about international sales…keeping low rated shows on air will annoy affiliates…ratings are most important

  • Brandy

    Feinn , actually international sales does matter a lot to CW.Poor international sales is part of why SC and Ringer were cancelled.They are also a reason why Nikita was renewed to get syndicated in Asia.

  • herpderp

    @feinn

    Then how do you explain Nikita? The CW isn’t in the business to get good ratings, it exists to create revenue for its parent companies, CBS Studios and Warner Bros. If the show is profitable with passable ratings, then it’ll continue.

  • RS

    Please just cancel Beauty and the Male Model on principle. He is not a beast. How many times do I have to type this? He has a little tiny scar on his face. That may be enough to label him a monster on the CW: “OMG he has a scar . . . on his face . .. get the pitchforks” (People, get the Ron Perlman version from the 80s – he spent hours in make-up that your “beast” isn’t willing to do) If you wanted “Beauty and the Beauty” (look at the picture and tell me who is the beast) or “Beauty and the Incredible Hulk” why didn’t you name it that? I adore this trope from George C. Scott to the amazing animated version, and this one is crap.

  • Heather

    The CW needs to do something different. Obviously what they have done in the past is not working and ratings are declining. Why continue to renew low rated shows just to renew something – that’s a great way to continue to lose money. Maybe they should do all genre shows, which is indicative of the direction they want to go with their pilots. The genre shows they have are doing better than the teen shows they have (with the exception of Cult which was just moved to Friday to make way for repeats on Tuesday). I think that if the CW doesn’t try something different then the whole network will be a goner.

    90210 – cancel it. The ratings are terrible. It already qualifies for syndication. GG’s short final season was a low rated disaster so why give 90210 a short final season – it would just be even more of a disaster. They should have predicted this and just wrapped up the show this season (hopefully the season finale can serve as a defacto series finale like CBS did with CSI NY for those concerned about nostalgia).

    Nikita – renew it. For one final season only for the syndication money.

    Cult – cancel it. It was moved to Friday to make room for Tuesday repeats. That’s a pretty obvious cancellation. The show is DOA.

    The Carrie Diaries – cancel it. Just a few episodes in and the ratings are terrible. The network seems to be moving away from teen girl dramas. They have a very limited appeal. ABC Family’s Pretty Little Liars and The Lying Game are way better than TCD.

    Hart of Dixie – cancel it. Yes it’s ratings are steady – steadily terrible. A season 3 renewal would also mean a season 4 renewal for syndication. The show is not going to grow in viewership – it’s only going to decline. It’s not a good lead in. For those who say that it has stiff competition: The Voice is not on right now and HOD’s ratings are still terrible. NCIS doesn’t appeal to the same general type of audience. Renewing it for 2 more seasons would be committing to a financial loss since the show is dead weight – it never should have been renewed for season 2 – it has not grown in viewership.

    Beauty and the Beast – renew it. Who knows if it will succeed on another night – maybe the CW should give it a chance. If it tanks then cancel it and wrap it up as a short second season and start a new show midseason. Nothing has retained TVD’s audience anyway so this one is an unknown. I say renew it and if it fails wrap it up ala Life Unexpected Season 2 style.

  • Heather

    My Fall 2013 Schedule Predictions

    Monday 8:00 The Selection 9:00 Reign
    Tuesday 8:00 The Tomorrow People 9:00 Supernatural
    Wednesday 8:00 Arrow 9:00 Oxygen
    Thursday 8:00 The Vampire Diaries 9:00 The Originals
    Friday 8:00 Beauty and the Beast 9:00 Nikita

    Midseason: The Hundred, Company Town

    Yes, there are 5 new series for the fall but the CW needs to do something drastic like this in order to improve ratings. What they have now isn’t working. They also have some shows in development that sound great and would also fit this mode (Amazon, Embrace) when these shows fail. I think they should be given a chance to grow unless they have absolutely tanked after 5-6 episodes. The CW needs to give new shows more time than the other networks do.

    The Originals should be a hit building off TVD. The Selection should be a hit building off the success of The Hunger Games. Oxygen could be a hit and would pair nicely with Arrow’s lead-in. The Tomorrow People could lead in a new night as Arrow did this season and Supernatural fans would likely follow it to that dreaded Tuesday 9:00 slot. Reign isn’t like anything else on network TV – it could be a huge hit or a huge flop. I think it’s worth taking a chance on. BATB may do well on Friday airing before NBC’s Grimm. Nikita is only there for the syndication money anyway.

    The Hundred could be a great midseason show or a flop but it deserves a chance. Company Town doesn’t match the network direction of genre shows but if they need a second midseason show it might succeed or they could try making it an original summer scripted show if not.

  • Alan

    With Cult moved to Fridays, I think it’s 99% cancelled. So 90210′s renewal is a certain thing.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    herpderp: “BATB won’t be canceled. The CW has to maintain a 50/50 ratio of CBS and WB productions.”

    Citation please for that alleged fact.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan: “You’re saying Carrie Diaries has no chance when it has done the best for Mondays better than Gossip Girl and 90210.”

    CD is a first run show. GG and 90210 are aging shows – GG is over and done. There’s no comparison between the two. It’s irrelevant if it did “better” when “better” is pathetic.

    “With 5 dramas debuting this season, its possible Arrow may be the only one renewed but its more likely CW renews a second drama. That drama will be Carrie Diaries since Emily Owens is cancelled, and Cult & Beauty and the Beast will be axed in May.”

    Looking at the reality of the Renew/Cancel Index, BATB is ahead of CD. It has a season average of .65 vs CD’s.51. That gives BATB the edge over CD. Not that I think either of those shows will survive – HoD is the only low-rated show I think has a shot at surviving for syndication reasons.

    If the CD renews either BATB OR CD it will have to move them to Friday where they will do even worse ratings – worse than Nikita most likely. Why would the CW do that when there is zero change of syndication for both shows – so they aren’t going to get a deal with the studios producing them.

    “@HerpDerp – If one of 90210 and Beauty and the Beast goes then its BATB. CW would rather invest in a final wrap up season for 90210″

    That’s not an “investment” – it’s insanity. The show has syndication episodes, its ratings are unbelievably low. There is ZERO reason to renew it even for Pedowitz’ alleged predisposition to give crap shows a final season.

    “then invest in another season of a show that retains less then The Secret Circle did out of Vampire Diaries.”

    So you’re a “retentionista”. Let me explain something to you – what matters is AD REVENUE – not whether some show retains its lead-in ratings. The latter is HOW you get ad revenue – IF you CAN. A show that gets next to NO ad revenue – such as 90210 – is worse than a show that gets SOME ad revenue like BATB.

    “Its easy to give a show a final wrap up season but not easy to invest ina show for a second yer that The CW is looking to have for a while.”

    That statement is only true if the final wrap show is still generating some revenue. 90210 is NOT. It already has more than enough syndication episodes. ANYTHING put in its time slot will generate more revenue than it does regardless of any deal offered by the studio.

    “I’m assuming that Hart of Dixie and Nikita will get renewed due to syndication and both do OK for their timeslots.”

    Nikita is a lock. HoD has a shot. However, if it is moved to Fridays it will do Nikita numbers or worse. But if it gets a third season that won’t matter just as Nikita’s ratings no longer matter.

    “I doubt 90210?s renewal or cancellation will have an effect on whether or not BATB will be renewed.”

    Agreed.

    “What people need to realize is that the battle between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast for the slot and that battle was a lot like Secret Circle vs. Hart of Dixie. While TSC’s ratings were higher, HOD built on GG and was more likely to hold better on its own, that and production costs were lower.”

    My guess is the latter had WAY more to do with it that any retentionista issues. TSC had a .8 season average at its end BUT it was dropping fast into the .5 territory. HoD averaged .6 – BUT was very stable until the end of its first season. I submit this had much more to do with it than whether it retained its lead-in.

    What I’m saying is that people need to be prepared for a “CW bloodbath” this year. I believe ALL of 90210, Cult, TCD, and BATB will be canceled, leaving only HoD as the possible holdout (along with Nikita and the three top performers.)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Autumn: “I think that they need to cancel one more show. It should be The Carrie Diaries. It doesn’t fit in with where the network is headed. It is also getting similar ratings to Emily Owens.”

    Agreed, TCD is doomed.

    “It also has improved immensely from the weak pilot and could by awesome by season 2. Has happened many times in the past.”

    Not going to happen here. There are just too many problems with the show.

    “HOWEVER, BATB should be the lead in and NOT Nikita.”

    Bad idea, If moved to Fridays, BATB will do be doing .4-.5 ratings. That will damage Nikita which doesn’t do well at 9PM. Not that it really matters because Nikita will be in its final season anyway, but what’s the point of damaging the one stable show you have on Friday with a show that will do worse than it’s doing now on a week night? Makes no sense.

    “On Friday night, the competition would be slim to none and the audience BATB does have seems to be pretty loyal and passionate which could help spread the word, if given enough time for people to catch up.”

    Nope. If moved, its ratings will drop below Nikita’s. The network can not make decisions based on “maybe people will catch up.” That almost never happens and they know it.

    “Also, BATB has a similar ‘type’ of fan base as Moonlight which did well on Fridays at 8/7c.”

    Once again – Gunsmoke Rule violation. You cannot compare those shows in any meaningful way. If for no other reason than Moonlight was CANCELED IN ITS FIRST SHORT SEASON! It’s ridiculous.

    “If they tried to move BATB to 9/8c, it would fail I think because it would be up against Grimm and Haven”

    Yes, it will fail against them. It will drop against almost anything because that’s what shows do when they move to Friday if they are currently making Friday numbers on a week night. They are highly unlikely to retain the same ratings in that situation. They will drop by at least a tenth of a point and probably two-tenths.

    “BATB has a better chance of being renewed than The Carrie Diaries because it does well internationally.”

    That doesn’t matter because it’s the studio that makes the international money, not the network. Only to the degree that the international revenue alters the deal the studio makes to the network does that matter.

    “Hart of Dixie will stay because it is doing much better than The Carrie Diaries AND is also a very inexpensive show.”

    More importantly, it will have a shot at syndication with another season which neither BATB nor TCD can claim.

    “Personally, I would drop HOD as well and just go all out genre”

    Agreed.

    “but I don’t think that is a possibility.”

    Agreed at least for next season. Once all the crap romance dramas die, things may change. However, it’s not clear yet that the CW can pick GOOD genre shows. Arrow is just one data point.

    “then the outside the government/conspiracy night with Nikita/BATB.”

    If they made BATB a decent show, I would approve that match. Unfortunately I don’t see them doing that. The show as it stands is just not well done at all. It would need a major reboot to fix the problems. As it stands, it’s like Dollhouse at the end of season one – in season two Joss fixed many of the problems, but it was too little, too late. That would likely be true of BATB.

    I expect BATB to drop to .4-.5 by end of its run, and a season average of .55 or lower. That’s cancellation territory even by CW standards.

    Again, I expect the CW to cancel ALL of 90210, Cult, TCD, and BATB. This goes against conventional wisdom and alleged limitations on new pilots, but there it is. I expect a CW “bloodbath”.

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