NBC: Except For 'Parks & Recreation,' The Cancellation Bear Backs Slowly Away From Predicting Individual Low Rated NBC Sitcom Renewals

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :oops: 0.69
The New Normal :oops: 0.77
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Whitney :| :| :| 0.88
Deception :cry: :cry: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.91
Community :| :| :| 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
The Office final season 1.37
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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I was going to headline this post "Smash Is Certain To Be Canceled" to flatter the SEO gods one more time, but now that the NYT's Master Of The Obvious has written about NBC's ratings collapse and highlighted Smash my self dignity no longer allowed me to do that, whatever the cost in pageviews might be.

What isn't yet old news, is that all of NBC sitcom ratings have now plunged so far that the Cancellation Bear now thinks it likely that NBC will renew at least one (and probably more than one) sitcom that has hit as low as a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating this season. (Parks & Recreation and The Office being the only ones which have not).

But while the bear looks for an appropriate "Catch A Falling Knife" graphic for next week, he's backing away from predicting any particular NBC sitcom besides Parks & Recreation will be renewed and has moved the three sitcoms in the running for renewal to "toss up" for now, or at least until the bear can find some chain mail gloves.

The observant among you will note that Deception is now just "likely" not "certain" to be canceled. Incredibly, NBC ratings have fallen so far that its "steady" 1.2 rating last week tied the NBC scripted show average for the week. Expect that news to hit the NYT by next year.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Just Desserts

    Bye-bye The “New” Normal and GOON, Revolution you’re next (I wish :) ).

  • Jeff (Canada)

    I think Community stands as the 2nd most likely to be renewed (after Parks). If all the low-rated comedies (Community, Go On, New Normal, Guys With Kids, Whitney, Up All Night, 1600 Penn) are doing the same ratings-wise, odds are next year they’ll do even worse, and will probably be canceled next year anyway. If they renew Community at least they’ll have more episodes to sell into syndication. With those other shows they don’t have anywhere near the amount to get into snydication.

  • KT

    The implosion of NBC’s ratings is fascinating to me.

    That being said, I don’t have much at stake on the network. I watched Smash last season, but this season has been horrible so far. I am going to give it one more chance tonight, but if I’m as bored as I have been during the last two episodes, I’m done, and frankly won’t even miss it when it gets inevitably cancelled. It’s the only show I watch on the entire network, and since I fall in the key demo they seem to be struggling to attract, clearly that’s part of their ratings woes.

  • Greg

    At this point I think they should just cancel everything except Parks and Recreation and Off Their Rockers. Parks and OTR could air on Wednesdays and they should launch only new comedies on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

    At first I was going to say they could renew one or two of Go On, Community and Whitney as a back-up in case any of the comedies fail right out of the gate, but rating 1.1 now, they would probably fall to a 0.9-1.0 next season.

  • jimbo

    NBC is so intent on being politicaly correct that none of their shows will be a hit. The new normal was nothing more than a friends/modern family wanna be…..Quit watching the Obama network a long time ago…

  • Mark

    I am shocked that “Deception” is still on the air

  • Rebecca

    If they renew something besides P&R, Community and perhaps Go On and 1600 Penn, I’d gladly sprinkle bear bait over any of the other shows to sacrifice happily as long as NBC gives GWK another chance. A heaping helping goes to UAN so maybe that cast can be freed and go find other work (Arnett has Arrested Development and a new pilot anyway).

  • Shepherd

    I keep waiting for NBC to take another shot at promoting Deception, and the show taking off by 10-15%. lol, the show has been amazingly steady considering how early it was written off, and the fact that it is on NBC which just seems to be collapsing these past couple of months. I don’t really care whether it’s renewed, I just want my early prediction of “NBC’s Scandal” to come true.

    I don’t watch sitcoms, nor do I normally comment on/ follow their ratings, but for some reason I don’t think the Whitney/ GWK announcement this week was good news for either show. Even though it seemed good for Whitney with NBC deciding to air its repeats, it just seems like a burn-off for both with Whitney being the better of two doomed shows.

  • THE OLD MAN

    I’m just astounded that a 1.2 is “likely renewal”

  • k:Alex

    More multi-camera shows from people who can make a good comedy.
    Not a director of a neighbor of a friend of someone who make coffee at 2 broken girls.

    First, they must start ‘The Voice Kids’, second they must understand that America don’t like shows of fake celebrities or with unlikely situations.
    And Still, bring something as ‘Mockingbird Lane’ back on air.
    A good horror is something the big 4 still don’t have.

  • Ryann

    I just wish they’d bring back hereos and studio 60… Living in the past

  • James

    Keep Smash and keep Parks and Rec, two brilliant shows in my opinion I don’t really care to much for other NBC shows.

  • Potato

    Total toss up between Whitney and Go On (I have a huge blind spot for community so logic aside I’m considering it renewed!) On the one hand, Whitney is closer to syndication but on the other, nobody seems to like it. People don’t think much about Go On but with Whitney it’s actual animosity. How well could it REALLY do in syndication if people are actively avoiding it now? Of course, Go On has ratings that fell even faster in an even shorter amount of time (half a season instead of a season and a half) and for a show in it’s first year, that can’t be good for their prospects

  • James

    What I want to know is, since NBC have paid for 16 out of 17 episodes of Smash does that mean even if it is cancelled like next week or something will every episode air or is it likely to be cancelled in May, if it is cancelled at all.

  • Bob

    I hope they renew Guys with Kids. It is very poorly rated. However, no worse then the others. I believe that they should give it a chance. Having it behind Animal (whatever) and Whitney was no favor. Put it on after the Voice for a few weeks next Season at least.

  • mando

    It is because they believe Perry and Murphy magic come TRUe but didn’t.
    If NBC would put Guys with Kids with Parenthood, the situation would be different.

    TNN and Goon don’t have too much competition while Whitney and GWK gained same raings as TNN and Go on against American Idol

  • Michael1

    It’s hard to justify keeping any show that loses to TBS. Unless NBC wants to make the case that Leno is beating Conan despite an inferior lead-in.

  • glover

    WOW, a lot of certain cancelations. Good for Go On and Community.

  • Tom

    At this point, I think only Parks, Go On, and New Normal survive. Go On is probably Fall, New Normal is Spring/spackle.

    The latter two is mostly NBC posturing to big name producers/actors: We will do everything we can to give your show a chance, if you try our network.

  • Pepper

    With all of those ‘certain cancellations’ up there, I think all the shows marked as ‘toss up’ will be renewed.

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