NBC: Except For 'Parks & Recreation,' The Cancellation Bear Backs Slowly Away From Predicting Individual Low Rated NBC Sitcom Renewals

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :oops: 0.69
The New Normal :oops: 0.77
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Whitney :| :| :| 0.88
Deception :cry: :cry: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.91
Community :| :| :| 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
The Office final season 1.37
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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I was going to headline this post "Smash Is Certain To Be Canceled" to flatter the SEO gods one more time, but now that the NYT's Master Of The Obvious has written about NBC's ratings collapse and highlighted Smash my self dignity no longer allowed me to do that, whatever the cost in pageviews might be.

What isn't yet old news, is that all of NBC sitcom ratings have now plunged so far that the Cancellation Bear now thinks it likely that NBC will renew at least one (and probably more than one) sitcom that has hit as low as a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating this season. (Parks & Recreation and The Office being the only ones which have not).

But while the bear looks for an appropriate "Catch A Falling Knife" graphic for next week, he's backing away from predicting any particular NBC sitcom besides Parks & Recreation will be renewed and has moved the three sitcoms in the running for renewal to "toss up" for now, or at least until the bear can find some chain mail gloves.

The observant among you will note that Deception is now just "likely" not "certain" to be canceled. Incredibly, NBC ratings have fallen so far that its "steady" 1.2 rating last week tied the NBC scripted show average for the week. Expect that news to hit the NYT by next year.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Douglas from Brazil

    Is it possible to NBC cancel every comedy but Parks and Rec?
    They doing great with dramas(OK,not that great but still better than comedies) but feels terrible for NBC to have lowest ratings ever for its comedies,it’s not like the 90’s.

  • Oliver

    @HAPPY!

    I’m not sure NBC wants to kill Parks by putting it at 8pm Thursday. In my view, if they’re going to launch three new comedies, they might as well launch a fourth and promote Thursday as ‘all new’, even if the 8pm show is doomed.

    No way NBC put SVU at 8. I realise that the Family Hour is an artificial construct these days, but I think the network will draw the line at putting sex crimes at 8/7c. Putting Parenthood opposite Modern Family doesn’t seem smart either.

  • Doug

    Maybe NBC should try getting into radio.

  • HAPPY!

    @Oliver
    Updated version of Wednesday
    8-Parenthood
    9-SVU
    10-Chicago Fire

    Better?…

  • Kyle

    I think New Normal & Whitney will see another season. I think Deception is going to get cancelled.

  • toadytoady

    SVU should not be an 8pm show. Who suggested that? Its bad enough at 9pm. Given its content it has always been a 10pm show and only changed this year to give the leg up to Chicago fire. The 9pm slot is a disaster for SVU.It needs to go back to 10pm.CF is more an early evening slot for family viewing.

  • steve

    The New Normal has been HILARIOUS the past few weeks. I hope NBC gives it a second season.

  • mwc

    NBC need more Voice spinoffs like CSI and L&O. The Voice: Kids, The Voice: Seniors, The Voice: Spanish.

  • steve sanders

    N othing B ut C rap…………

  • Susie

    I love Parenthood and very much hope it’s renewed.

  • HAPPY!

    @mwc
    “NBC need more Voice spinoffs like CSI and L&O. The Voice: Kids, The Voice: Seniors, The Voice: Spanish.”

    That will just weaken The Voice’s ratings.

  • Don

    NBC Fall 2013

    Sunday
    SUNDAY Night Football

    Sunday Winter 2014:

    7 – Dateline
    8 – Ironside (New Show / Reboot)
    9 – Celebrity Apprentice

    +++Figured Ironside might be a good fit there.

    Monday
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – Revolution

    +++Not Broke, don’t fix it.

    Tuesday
    8:00 – The Voice (Results)
    9:00 – Parenthood
    10:00 – Vegas (New Network)

    +++If CBS Cancels Vegas NBC (or ABC for that matter.) could pick it up and keep it in the same timeslot and would work ratings wise for NBC where it wouldn‘t for CBS. If not then I Am Victor at 10 PM.

    Wednesday
    8:00 – The Sixth Gun (New show)
    9:00 – Chicago Fire
    10:00 – Law & Order: SVU

    +++Sixth Gun is a western based on a comic book. Switching Chicago Fire and SVU back to 10 would work better I think.

    Thursday
    8:00 – Community
    8:30 – Parks & Recreation
    9:00 – MJF (New Show)
    9:30 – Go On (New Day and Time)
    10:00 – Hannibal

    +++Figured the Matthew Perry show after the new Michael J. Fox Comedy might be a good fit together. Maybe the big names of Michael J. Fox and Matthew Perry could bring in an audience.
    ***This assumes Hannibal will be a hit, otherwise a new drama. Maybe The Blacklist or Smash.

    Friday
    8 – Believe (New Show)
    9 – Grimm
    10 – Dateline

    +++ Believe might be a good fit with Grimm.

    Saturday
    8 to 9 – Rock Center
    9 to 11 – Repeats

    +++Sorry to Brian Williams who won’t like it.

    Midseason:
    Wonderland, Smash, Secret Lives of Husbands, The Blacklist, The Hatfields and McCoys, I Am Victor, About A Boy, The John Mulaney Show, and Happiness.

  • bluegrassbetty

    NBC should purchase some of the perfectly good shows CBS will cancel because they have too many good shows. Any of them would rate highter than the shows NBC currently has.

  • Charlie

    Important news for TNN fans:

    At an event, a couple days ago, Justin Bartha (The New Normal) was asked about a potential second season and he said: “We know that the network likes it and we’d love to do another season”. He also mentioned that the decision won’t be taken until May and said that the cast and crew are optimistic. At the same event, Ryan Murphy said that he is thinking of doing a new drama series ala The New Normal, about the fears of child parenting. Notice the word “drama” and “fears”. This could mean that he and his team have learned the lesson and, if there is a second season, TNN will be a comedy full-time (unlike in many episodes this season, which looked like a drama).

    Also positive for The New Normal is NBC’s upcoming months schedule. On March 5th NBC will air the unaired Halloween episode after an all new Go On episode. On March 12th and 19th, both Go On and TNN will be airing repeats. From April 2nd, Go On and TNN will resume episodes after The Voice. Because of the Halloween episode, Go On will air its finale on April 23rd, while TNN will do it on the 30th, probably at 9pm, right after The Voice. Now tell me this schedule doesn’t show love for both shows. I would say NBC wants to save them at all cost.

  • steve

    I love The New Normal and it is the best new comedy this year! Hopefully NBC sticks with it.

  • steve sanders

    P.S…..nobody cares about your fantasy scheduleding morons.

  • Ultima

    @Don
    10:00 – Vegas (New Network)
    If CBS Cancels Vegas NBC (or ABC for that matter.) could pick it up and keep it in the same timeslot and would work ratings wise for NBC

    Nonsense. NBC’s Parenthood regularly beat Vegas in the Tuesday 10pm timeslot after the first month of the season.

    NBC doesn’t have a drama problem and Vegas’ numbers aren’t that good.

  • Ultima

    @Charlie
    Go On will air its finale on April 23rd, while TNN will do it on the 30th, probably at 9pm, right after The Voice.

    You miscounted. Both shows have five episodes left; both shows have their season finale on 23 April.

  • Ultima

    @Douglas
    Is it possible to NBC cancel every comedy but Parks and Rec?

    Yes. I think that two renewals is the most likely option right now (either Community or Go On), but unless that hour long episode of Parks & Rec was a fluke, I think it’s looking at a ~13 episode final season order.

  • Charlie

    @Ultima

    The New Normal has six episodes left if you count the Halloween one I mentioned. It should have been aired last fall but it wasn’t. NBC has scheduled it for next week. This leaves (according to the Futon Critic listings) Go On’s finale (episode 22) on April 23rd, while on the same day TNN has its episode 21. So I assumed that the episode 22 (the finale) will air on the 30th…?

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