NBC: Except For 'Parks & Recreation,' The Cancellation Bear Backs Slowly Away From Predicting Individual Low Rated NBC Sitcom Renewals

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

February 26th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :oops: 0.69
The New Normal :oops: 0.77
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.80
1600 Penn :oops: 0.81
Whitney :| :| :| 0.88
Deception :cry: :cry: 0.90
Go On :| :| :| 0.91
Community :| :| :| 0.92
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
The Office final season 1.37
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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I was going to headline this post "Smash Is Certain To Be Canceled" to flatter the SEO gods one more time, but now that the NYT's Master Of The Obvious has written about NBC's ratings collapse and highlighted Smash my self dignity no longer allowed me to do that, whatever the cost in pageviews might be.

What isn't yet old news, is that all of NBC sitcom ratings have now plunged so far that the Cancellation Bear now thinks it likely that NBC will renew at least one (and probably more than one) sitcom that has hit as low as a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating this season. (Parks & Recreation and The Office being the only ones which have not).

But while the bear looks for an appropriate "Catch A Falling Knife" graphic for next week, he's backing away from predicting any particular NBC sitcom besides Parks & Recreation will be renewed and has moved the three sitcoms in the running for renewal to "toss up" for now, or at least until the bear can find some chain mail gloves.

The observant among you will note that Deception is now just "likely" not "certain" to be canceled. Incredibly, NBC ratings have fallen so far that its "steady" 1.2 rating last week tied the NBC scripted show average for the week. Expect that news to hit the NYT by next year.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @Charlie
    The New Normal has six episodes left if you count the Halloween one I mentioned.

    They have aired 17 episodes and have five remaining, including the Halloween episode. “1AVS21″ is the 22nd episode, not the 21st.

  • Ultima

    New York Post is reporting that Jimmy Fallon will replace Jay Leno on The Tonight Show after May 2014.

    Sadly, this is unlikely to be anywhere near as entertaining as the Lenopocalypse of 2009-10.

  • Charlie

    @Ultima Thank you! “1AVS21″ got me confused. So they’re both airing finales on same day… still good :)

  • Jennifer

    The acid test for GO and TNN will be in April with their first episode after The Voice, after being on themselves for so long. Anything under a 1.5 will sentence them to death. And I’m being generous. With Mindy pulling 1.6, I’m sure NBC is looking for The Voice to boost these comedies closer to 2.0, which is unlikely. If only The Voice brings in new people to join the current audience of these two comedies, they will be saved.

  • Don

    @Ultima

    NBC doesn’t have a drama Problem? I disagree. Do No Harm was a flop and Deception is not doing well, and the return of Smash has been anything but a smash hit.

    As for Vegas’ numbers not being that good. They are compared to NBC and ABC. Parenthood gets 5 to 6 million viewers, Smash last got 3 to 3.5 million. ABC’s Body of Proof gets about 6 to 6.5 million. Vegas gets about 10 or more million viewers.

    So I think the combo of The Voice Results showing leading into family drama Parenthood followed by Vegas would be a good combo and would work. First, Parenthood would have a much stronger lead in and it’s ratings would improve. Second, Vegas is an established show and introducing new shows hasn’t gone too well lately. Elementary being an exception. Smash’s ratings have been terrible and keeping it there where it’s at won’t seem to work and if you put it at 9 after The Voice then it’s ratings would hurt Parenthood’s ratings. That was my thinking when I came up with this idea.

  • Holly

    @Don,

    First, NBC’s spring premieres have been bad, but Revolution, Parenthood, Chicago Fire, SVU, and Grimm are all doing fine. That means they’ve gotten two solid dramas from this season.

    Second,like it or not, total viewers don’t matter. The 18-49 demo is where the networks make their money. In the demo, NBC has 5 dramas at or better than Vegas. They have no reason to pick up a show they already know will fail.

  • k:Alex

    Isn’t ‘Partners’ a option to take from CBS? Most of the time it had better raitings than any NBC comedy.
    When there is a gap anywhere, they can fill it with the episodes who aren’t show. If they only try?

  • Holly

    @k:Alex,

    Isn’t ‘Partners’ a option to take from CBS?

    No. All the actors have been released and production is completely shut down. Besides, like with Vegas, NBC is much better off trying a new show than going with a proven failure.

  • bruce

    I wonder if the networks even look at these comments about how they do business?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I wonder if the networks even look at these comments about how they do business?”

    Please tell me you’re kidding.

  • Dude

    I’m white and even I’m kind of offended by all these Deception/Scandal comparisons. They both have black female leads…that’s it. Aside from that, they have nothing in common.

  • Dodi

    Renew Deception, Awesome show started slow but now has gained momentum. I look forward to Monday nights show. I’ve also gotten co-workers and family members addicted.

  • NE1

    I gave Whitney a chance, but you have to try too hard to convince yourself she’s a good actress. She’s trying hard, but it’s not enough.

  • Brad

    I’ll be glad when ‘The New Normal’ is cancelled so I can go back to watching NBC, especially ‘The Voice’. I must say, I’ve really missed ‘The Voice’.

  • HAPPY!

    @steve sanders
    Based on all the comments on the fantasy schedules, I think people do care about them, even if you don’t.

  • Oliver

    I’m getting the feeling NBC is planning to launch multiple shows after the Winter Olympics.

  • A Buster

    I hope they renew 1600 Penn, New Normal, Chiago Fire. I really don,t see what everyone sees in Parks and Rec except for the stars. The writing is terrible.

  • A Buster

    I hope new normal does,t get canceled.

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