ABC: 'Red Widow' Is Certain To Be Canceled; Two Mob Dinners For The Cancellation Bear In One Season!

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


PolarBear2

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Happy Endings :oops: 0.59
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.60
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.71
Red Widow :oops: 0.75
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.90
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Castle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.50
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.04

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Red Widow's woeful premiere ratings, which equalled those of Zero Hour, put it directly inside the jaws of the Cancellation Bear. It's certain to be canceled.

Will it air all 13 episodes ordered? The cancellation bear doesn't try and guess. Enjoy it while you can. Along with Fox's Mob Doctor, that's two mob dinners for the bear in one season!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • DW

    if it holds stedy , they will keep it on if it hits 1.0 they’ll drop it. what else can they put on?.

  • vincentdante

    Red Widow will only have 8 episodes.

  • amy

    I thought Red Widow only had 8 episodes ordered for this season. Also, are they counting the 2 hr premiere as 1 episode or 2?

  • Cyrax86

    The episode order of Red Widow is 8, so only 6 more airings left.

  • James

    I would think Last Man Standing has to be getting close to an upgrade to likely renewal. Maybe I’m wrong but isn’t the 0.71 it has on Friday just as good as the 0.9 the Neighbors has on Wednesday?

  • psychic

    They’ll call 2012-2013 “the Great Bear Feast” in the history books. I’m calling it now.

  • Just Desserts

    My picks:

    Nashville and Revenge: renewed (thank you Red Widow)

    The Neighbors: renewed

    Castle: renewed

    Malibu and Last: renewed

    Happy and Body: renewed (they’ve cheated death before, no reason they can’t do it again!)

  • forg

    Hoping for the best for LMS

    Really bad season for ABC but at least they have Scandal and Shark Tank rising sharply this season.

  • BigBrotherFan

    RED WIDOW’S FAILURE IS NASHVILLES GAIN! BEST TV SHOW ON RIGHT NOW.

    They need to get rid of Gunnar, though. His character is useless. They need to focus somewhat more on LAMAR (Booth) he’s great. More Avery, too, please! He’s the resident villian (BOTH, KINDA).

    Other than that…AMAZING SHOW JUST AMAZING! Don’t be dumb ABC!

  • JAA

    Bill, what will it take for Castle to earn their green toothy smiley faces?

  • Max Vrany

    @JAA, Bill just needs to get around to it. Castle is above the arbitrary cutoff between likely and certain renewal.

  • Max Vrany

    Notice the clear gap in the index. ABC can make this real easy. Apart from Friday shows, cancel everything on the short side of the gap. :wink:

  • Ken

    Three mob dinners if you count Vegas.

  • Shepherd

    It’s a shame that ZH gets to go down with a higher index score than LR. I’m sure one more episode would have fixed that.

    Nashville ‘bearly’ has a higher index score than Revenge. Granted, Revenge is a sophomore show, but still noteworthy imo. :roll:

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, what will it take for Castle to earn their green toothy smiley faces?”

    I should have changed it already. When shows creep above 1.0 I almost always miss it.

  • Dude McDudington

    I’m usually not surprised or annoyed when a new show gets cancelled (or is tagged as certain to be cancelled) but Red Widow premiere was REALLY GOOD. It is getting infuriating how good shows cannot survive anymore (unless they’re on Pay TV or Cable maybe).

    Something needs to be done about the TV business model. Oh, and a note to idiots who don’t watch good shows – START WATCHING GOOD SHOWS!

  • THE OLD MAN

    The bear is having a serious feast this season

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Three mob dinners if you count Vegas.”

    Indeed!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The bear is having a serious feast this season”

    Not really significantly different in quantity, but he may be having more fun!

  • MichaelChickless

    I’d like to see them air the remaining episodes of Zero Hour. But, other than Last Man standing, I don’t really give a flying you-know-what about any current ABC show.

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