ABC: 'Red Widow' Is Certain To Be Canceled; Two Mob Dinners For The Cancellation Bear In One Season!

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


PolarBear2

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Happy Endings :oops: 0.59
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.60
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.71
Red Widow :oops: 0.75
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.90
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.93
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.94
Castle :) :) :) :) 1.02
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.07
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.50
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.04

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Red Widow's woeful premiere ratings, which equalled those of Zero Hour, put it directly inside the jaws of the Cancellation Bear. It's certain to be canceled.

Will it air all 13 episodes ordered? The cancellation bear doesn't try and guess. Enjoy it while you can. Along with Fox's Mob Doctor, that's two mob dinners for the bear in one season!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    @Ted Craig
    Really? That many people think SHIELD is going to air at 9 on Sundays? With two massively popular shows that already attract the show’s target audience?

    They forget that when networks aggressively counter-programmed like that in that past, they moved an established hit to the night, not an untested series looking for an audience.

    Just look at Thursdays – Survivor was a megahit and CSI was showing huge potential when CBS moved them to Thursday against NBC; then, Grey’s Anatomy was a megahit before ABC moved it opposite CSI.

    Obviously, multiple hit shows can survive in the same timeslot, but it’s extremely hard to launch a hit show in a very tough timeslot dominated by shows that share your target audience.

  • Cheryl

    I watched the first two episodes online for the first time. The show is great!!! The acting of the entire cast is awesome!!! I am sure there are other dumb shows that can be cancelled instead.

  • Holly

    @Ultima,

    They forget that when networks aggressively counter-programmed like that in that past, they moved an established hit to the night, not an untested series looking for an audience.

    Once and Modern Family did well as counter programming in tough slots. And PoI has held up just fine against Greys, which was beating CSI…

    And moving a show that looked like it had potential to that slot didn’t work so well for them this year…

    I don’t usually guess at scheduling, but I don’t think it’s completely unreasonable to put SHIELD on Sundays.

  • Ultima

    @Holly

    Fair points. However, I would note that Modern Family didn’t have any comedy competition; Once Upon a Time was going against primarily male-skewing programming (SNF and FOX animation); and CBS was already established on Thursdays with The Big Bang Theory to lead-in(-ish) to Person of Interest.

    In this case, SHIELD would be going up against the two highest rated shows on TV, both of which share their target audience. After only a couple of episodes, viewers will have to decide if its worth watching it instead of an established show in The Walking Dead. All of that is a lot to ask of a new show, even one with this much buzz and associated with a multi-billion dollar movie franchise.

    Besides, ABC has a nice Tuesday night that needs a whole bunch of new programming and that is relatively uncompetitive. I know that doesn’t solve the Sunday issue and as you said, Revenge is not working out so well, but I’m sure there’s better alternatives than SHIELD.

    Also, we all know that ABC is going to end up putting it at 8pm on Thursdays anyways! ;)

  • Keith

    I think ABC needs to do something drastic with scheduling next season. I realize that they would prob not move around so many shows, but this is what I would do:

    Sunday
    AFHV
    DWTS
    Nashville

    Monday
    DWTS Results
    Revenge
    New Drama (or flipped with Revenge in this spot and new Drama in between)

    Tuesday
    OUAT
    SHIELD (new)
    Castle

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    New Comedy
    Modern Family
    New Comedy
    New Drama

    Thursday
    Shark Tank
    Greys
    Scandal

    Friday
    LMS
    Malibu Country
    Suburgatory
    The Neighbors
    20/20

  • *S (@chanel_and_punk)

    NASHVILLE rocks and the audience will grow! PLUS it got them two Golden Globe nominations after I don’t know 5 episodes!? ABC won’t let this one go

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I agree with Holly. I don’t usually guess scheduling either, but Shield has both the Joss Whedon imprimatur and is a spinoff of the third highest grossing movie of all time. If I was the network, I’d consider that such a likely hit that I would counter-schedule.

    That’s what they did with Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles – which unfortunately didn’t have the quality to back up the franchise effect.

    I’m not sure if Shield will be a hit, however, as I have zero info on exactly how they’re going to implement the concept. The cast so far is OK – Clark Gregg and Ming Na, both of whom I like as actors, but they’re not exactly high-profile stars, either.

  • David Howell

    Shield. Out-of-the-box likely hit (I say “likely” only because Elementary looked near enough certain and… Oh). Likely to skew towards M18-34.

    Are you telling me ABC, the most female-skewing of the big four nets, would stick it on Sunday? With the #1 show in television (that does very well in M18-34) airing all night, rerun-free, all winter? With the #1 scripted show in television (that does very well in M18-34) airing rerun-free in two chunks through the season?

    Seriously??

    Tuesday 8/7c. Weakest night of the week, no crossover competition, a night that needs starting again from zero. End of discussion. And if ABC don’t do this, I’ll start to understand why everyone on here complains about ABC scheduling!

    I’d air it rerun-free in two chunks, put DWTS midseason in the Shield hiatus with Batchelor in the fall and Batchelorette in the spring. A new show as the Shield leadout could air in the same pattern, and Celebrity Wife Swap (or a new reality show if CWS keeps tumbling like it did this week) can fill in midseason as a better fit for DWTS.

    2013/14 shouldn’t be a bad year for political interruptions on Tuesday, so ABC could pull this off.

  • DeanW

    What ABC should do:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 – Nashville

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars: Results
    9:00 – The Neighbors
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA / Body of Proof

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – Suburgatory
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – Malibu Country
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – Revenge
    10:00 – Castle

  • Ted Craig

    @Richard Steven Hack

    ” the Joss Whedon imprimatur”

    Yes, just like Dollhouse and Firefly, two long running hit shows. I like Whedon, but he hasn’t launched a real success on TV since the last century.

  • Fred

    I
    While the SHIELD placement is debatable , I don’t think the proposed OUAT spinoff is. If ABC decides to air the Alice in Wonderland inspired spinoff then Sunday 9:00 PM would be most suitable for the first season at least .
    I do have reservations about the spinoff but I have faith the show runners will give it all they got.
    Btw OUAT may be on the decline ratings wise but story wise it has been fire of late.

  • Sara

    I do not see the Once spinoff happening, fans have been very vocal about it being a bad idea. ABC does look less daring this pilot seasonings last, probably because none of the new shows really worked. However SHIELD is also probably the big focus for ABC this year. Perhaps because abc already put all its biggest prospects into production earlier the regular pilot season seems less then stellar. Pilot wise Gothica looks okay and will probably go to series as ABC wants to keep Mark Gordon happy especially since the fiasco with Americana last season. Reckless has good people behind hit but seems like another Missing. Killer Woman might work well especially with Helfer.Spy is the only comedy that looks interesting to me as a twenty something. Not much else is interesting from ABC this pilot season.

  • Sara

    @fred Once has been terrible lately. Neal being Baelfire was underwhelming and cliche. I really wish Baelfire had remained a kid and was not turned into a petty criminal. Plus the Henry being Rumple’s undoing is a terrible plot. I am really disappointed Neal did not become Peter Pan or a lost boy and stay a kid and maybe form a friendship with Hook in Neverland over mutual loathing of Rumplestilskin…that would have been far more interesting. interesting.

  • EVESIX

    Cancel Revenge and renew Nashville. One guilty pleasure à la Dallas/Dynastie 2.0 is more than enough.

  • James

    POSSIBLE (AND RISKY) ABC SCHEDULE

    Sunday
    AFHV
    SHIELD (new)
    OUAT
    Gothica (new)

    (That’s what ABC did in 2011-2012 season.)

    Monday
    DWTS
    Castle

    Tuesday
    DWTS:Results
    Revenge
    Betrayal (new)

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    Middle Age Rage (new)
    Nashville

    Thursday
    Venice (new)
    Greys
    Scandal

    Friday
    LMS
    Malibu Country
    Happy Endings
    Super Fun Night (new)
    20/20

    REPLACEMENT SERIES: SHARK TANK

    MIDSEASON (new):
    Lucky 7
    Big Thunder
    Influence
    Divorce: A Love Story
    Mixology

  • rob60990

    ABC has to be aggressive on Sundays at 9 and SHIELD is their only pilot that is currently getting tons of buzz. ABC leaving Revenge there would be stupid. It never should have moved there in the first place.

  • Fred

    @rob60990

    I agree with you 100%.

    ABC must start making bold moves. I’m sure SHIELD will perform better than Revenge. And I’m still a Revenge fan!

  • NBC Fan

    Does anybody know when The Middle and Modern Family start syndication?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Does anybody know when The Middle and Modern Family start syndication?”

    Modern Family starts on USA next Fall, not sure about The Middle.

  • Cody

    I didnt catch “Red Widow” when it premiered because it was on the same time “The Walking Dead” was on, and I’m sorry but TWD is my favorite show. On another note though, I did catch “Red Widow” on demand and I really enjoyed it. I hope it doesnt get canceled and I will keep watching it till the end. Seriously though…. I dont understand why they put a series premiere up against the #1 show (TWD) on Sunday night. It still baffles me.

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