CBS: 'Golden Boy' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

distracted bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Golden Boy :cry: :cry: 0.64
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.66
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.79
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.84
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.03
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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The premiere ratings for CBS' freshman drama Golden Boy arrived at about the same time a malware attack hit our site. Because of that, the Cancellation Bear was a bit distracted and failed to appropriately note the grimness of the premiere ratings. The malware is now gone (fingers crossed!), and the undistracted bear is able to see that Golden Boy is likely to be canceled.

For those who missed last week's CBS post because of the site problems (with a bit of updating):

Let's review the CBS drama situation, again, for the 474th time.

  • CBS has premiered three new dramas each of the last seven Fall's.
  • Assuming CBS keeps the same number of drama hours next Fall, they'll need to cancel three of their Spring dramas to make room (ignore the already dead Made In Jersey, it is irrelevant). Currently, I am predicting those three canceled shows will be Vegas (certainly), CSI:NY (likely), and Golden Boy (likely).
The most common hypotheticals lean towards bad news for more dramas:
  • You think CBS will expand their sitcom time by an hour? Cancel another drama.
  • You think CBS might air Undercover Boss at 8pm Friday next Fall? Cancel another drama.
  • You think CBS will time share their dramas in partial seasons? Increase their drama time on Sunday-Friday? Or air new dramas on Saturday? Check your medication.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Dan S

    I just have trouble seeing TGW coming back & no syndication deal with anyone yet. Yes The Mentalist could also go since their numbers aren’t much better. With Vegas, NY & GB all gone & most likely another hour of comedy on Thur being added both TGW & TM are likely done. It almost sounds like a lock that CBS is adding NCIS Red & Beverly Hills Cop in the fall. Another strong candidate is Intelligence leaving only 1 more hour to fill.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    @Anna Bones Clarkwood, those are the decisions CBS makes every year, and has for a very long time. Renew the increasingly expensive ratings laggard that they have a syndication deal for that’s making them money on the back end, or open up the slot for another show that they might be able to syndicate some day.

    Unfortunately, for our predictions, half of that equation (what the syndication deals are worth) is completely unknown to us.

  • MichaelChickless

    Cancel Vegas (sadly), The Good Wife & Golden Boy; renew the rest.

  • ToXiX

    CBS should move Mike & Molly after HIMYM next season. Debut a new comedy after 2 Broke Girls

  • THE OLD MAN

    I could live w/ H50 Sun 9:00 & TGW 10:00

    Why move TGW to Fri when you can just leave it on Sun an hour later. The 50+ Demo wouldn’t Whine like a 20-something due to FB overruns & what not. We’ll just set the DVR & go to bed or just watch it On Demand on Monday.

    A 1.5 on Sun would suit CBS just fine (IMHO).

  • Hepha

    TGW will crash on Friday at 9pm… It will be even worse than it is already on Sundays !
    So CBS, don’t bother ! Cancel TGW ! :D

  • Ultima

    @Ken
    Don’t forget – how could you – that Unforgettable is coming back in the summer. In the unlikely event that it does well, it could take out another drama too.

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see it scheduled for Fridays in May with CBS ready to replace it with Undercover Boss if it fails before the season starts.

  • Ultima

    @Elijah
    I hope some executive at CBS is smart enough to realize how successful Vegas is and understands ratings don’t really show you the whole Picture.

    Advertisers will not pay for viewers 50+, so in terms of advertising revenue, which is how CBS pays for the show, Vegas is not remotely successful.

  • Dakota

    @ Bill

    How are Survivor’s chances at being renewed?

  • Gary A

    An interesting fact with CBS is that they focus on the 25 – 54 demo more than the 18 – 49 and they look for shows that are popular with the largest audience (no niche comedies or fan boy driven dramas – not saying that’s good or bad just a fact). And that seems to deliver for them – even in the coveted 18 – 49 demo range. The fact that the majority of series they will cancel would easily be renewed on every other network (save for FOX perhaps).

    A lot of what CBS will do in the fall would seem to be in what direction they go with their comedies – expanding them or not. They have two series that will more than likely end next season (HIMYM & TAAHM) which makes their usefulness as anchors iffy. It also will make a difference if they expand with 2 two hour blocks or try 1 2 hour block and 2 1 hour blocks (with Weds or Sun being possibilities – Fri less likely). It is unlikely that they premiere more than 3 new dramas in the fall (but not out of the question) and I would be surprised if UB is on the fall lineup (it will be renewed but I see it as backup as it is getting harder and harder to imagine employees falling for the fake for more than 12 – 15 episodes a season – it’s starting to resemble KN in some ways; hard to believe that so many owners are clueless to why their business is failing).

    Without plugging in the shows it is likely to believe this is CBS’ fall plans:
    Mon – 4 comedies and 1 hr scripted
    Tues – 3 1 hr scripted (look for NCIS to be in the title of at least 2 of them)
    Weds – 3 1 hr series (1 unscripted and 2 scripted) or 2 comedies and 2 scripted hours
    Thurs – 2 comedies (TBBT of course being 1 of them) 2 scripted hours or 4 comedies and 1 scripted hour
    Fri – 3 1 hour series (probably scripted but ??)
    Sat – repeats and 48 Hours (likely) but if a scripted series showed up on the fall schedule (like ROE did last season) I wouldn’t be totally surprised
    Sun – 4 1 hour series (2 unscripted and 2 scripted) or they make a real move on the night and program 60 Mins 2 comedies then 2 1 hour series (scripted and unscripted) or unscripted at 8 2 comedies at 9 and scripted at 10

    Have you noticed that Dennis Quaid and Michael Chiklis on Vegas seem to be going thru the motions now and not as fully involved as they did a few months ago? As producers as well as lead actors they are privy to more behind the scenes machinations then other performers are and they may already know the outcome – no matter what the CBS publicity department says to the press and public. It must be tough working on a project that you know will probably be cancelled when you finish doing the current order.

    If CBS doesn’t add comedies on Sundays, I predict TGW remains in the 9:00 spot. If it does, you read it here first.

  • Dan

    Golden boy is CHAOS, Miami Medical, NYC 22, Harper’s Island, and Swingtown. 1 and done midseason drama. CBS hasn;t renewed a midseason drama since The Unit, and its doubtful Golden Boy will be renewed.

    I’m still going with CBS moving CSI to fridays replacing the cancelled CSI NY and Vegas will be replaced by NCIS LA spinoff while NCIS LA moves to Tuesdays at 10. A new drama will air Wed after Survivor and Criminal Minds and its possible Elementary might move to Mondays at 10 while Hawaii 5-0 may move to Sundays at 10 which might be a better fit. One of The Mentalist or Good Wife will be cancelled and the one that isn’t (Likely Good Wife) will stay at 9 Sundays. If CBS expands sitcom hours that might be interesting to see but I believe in any case UB will be held until midseason.

  • Dan

    @Dakota – Survivors chances at being renewed are very very good.

    @Ultima – I still think Unforgettable will air this summer but, its possible CBS may hold it until Fridays at 8, it could work. Its more likely to air Sundays at 9 until fall and then when its season is done, maybe CBS will premiere The Good Wife in that slot.

    CBS never announces a final season but it would be nice if they made a short final season of The Good Wife for midseason and make things easier.

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    I still think Unforgettable will air this summer but, its possible CBS may hold it until Fridays at 8, it could work. Its more likely to air Sundays at 9 until fall and then when its season is done, maybe CBS will premiere The Good Wife in that slot.

    I didn’t mean to imply that I thought they would hold Unforgettable for the fall.

    I think it will air as scheduled in the summer, but they only have room for seven episodes. Presumably they’ll either do as you said, or they’ll plan on moving it to another night (probably Friday) in the hopes that it does well and gets a full season. If not, there’s always Undercover Boss.

  • DW

    @ gary a . no thats just how chiklis acts. :)

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    CBS never announces a final season but it would be nice if they made a short final season of The Good Wife for midseason and make things easier.

    They could actually fit a 13-episode run in for midseason on Sundays if they start it the week after the Super Bowl (presumably they’ll move the Grammy Awards again).

    If they do that, it’s entirely possible that they’re just hoping to air Unforgettable for the entire fall on Sundays.

  • PurpleDrazi

    @The Old Man

    50+ people know how to work DVRs?

    JK! ;-)

  • lll

    I agree with Dan S’s new show selection–NCIS Red, Beverly Hills Cop and Intelligence–but I have no idea what shows will be cancelled to add these shows in. I see NCIS Red on Tuesdays between NCIS and NCIS LA or after LA. I see Intelligence behind Person of Interest. Beverly Hills Cop will be midseason, Monday or Wednesdays. These are just my opinions.

  • Meliwa

    There are two questions in the schedule regarding the status of Survivor and where Undercover Boss will be. Survivor’s ratings are decent enough for renewal on Wednesday @ 8, but CBS and Mark Burnett only neogtiate for two seasons at a time (they have since the beginning, btw), and I believe the current edition of Survivor is the end of this two-year contract. By tradition, they will not discuss or announce a renewal until near the end of this edition.

    As for Undercover Boss, it is a show that CBS has been pulling good ratings on Fridays this fall against Kitchen Nightmares, so I’m fully expecting them to be given the slot. Which of course means the cancellation of another hour series.

  • JacobYates

    @Elijah
    Don’t get me wrong, I live Vegas. But you have to look at the facts. Low ratings equal no revenue. No revenue equals cancellatiob.c. Ratings do help people see the bigger picture. What you’re asking is for CBS to throw away millions on a show that makes little to no revenue. I live Vegas myself, but I’m not so desperate to think that ratings don’t matter. You’ve taken desperate fandom to a whole new level. Open your eyes. Vegas is gone. Nobody at CBS has enough pull to save it now.

    You’re notion that Vegas is successful is contrived from your blindness to the importance of TV ratings. I remember a few Weeks ago when you said Vegas had been “steadily growing” in the ratings. I cried with laughter. Vegas is a bust and now its only hope lies with a summer renewal. Please don’t comment anymore about Vegas being “successful” or “a hit”. Just enjoy the show while it’s in and learn a little more about TV ratings.

  • JacobYates

    Cancellation not cancellatiob.c. Love Vegas not live Vegas (that typo is there twice) While it’s on not in.

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