CBS: 'Golden Boy' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

distracted bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Golden Boy :cry: :cry: 0.64
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.66
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.79
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.84
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.03
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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The premiere ratings for CBS' freshman drama Golden Boy arrived at about the same time a malware attack hit our site. Because of that, the Cancellation Bear was a bit distracted and failed to appropriately note the grimness of the premiere ratings. The malware is now gone (fingers crossed!), and the undistracted bear is able to see that Golden Boy is likely to be canceled.

For those who missed last week's CBS post because of the site problems (with a bit of updating):

Let's review the CBS drama situation, again, for the 474th time.

  • CBS has premiered three new dramas each of the last seven Fall's.
  • Assuming CBS keeps the same number of drama hours next Fall, they'll need to cancel three of their Spring dramas to make room (ignore the already dead Made In Jersey, it is irrelevant). Currently, I am predicting those three canceled shows will be Vegas (certainly), CSI:NY (likely), and Golden Boy (likely).
The most common hypotheticals lean towards bad news for more dramas:
  • You think CBS will expand their sitcom time by an hour? Cancel another drama.
  • You think CBS might air Undercover Boss at 8pm Friday next Fall? Cancel another drama.
  • You think CBS will time share their dramas in partial seasons? Increase their drama time on Sunday-Friday? Or air new dramas on Saturday? Check your medication.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    @Elijah

    Hey @ Bill…..where in the delusional Fan Excuse Bingo does this lie on? Or do we need to create “It’s successful without the ratings” as the new slot?

  • Jonay

    CBS should try moving shows they think fans will follow to Fridays????

  • Herb Finn

    Vegas,sadly is gone – but knowning that,I expct CBS to end the season cleanly with key plot threads wraped up. (Gee,and I wanted to see a 75 year old Dixon Lamb appear on CSI!)

    The real wild card is the comedies – CBS has ordered some really strong comedy pilots – including one from Chuck Lorre that was on spec’ not ordered. I can see an expansion of another hour of comedy – giving CBS 3 new comedy slots, plus they’d order atleast one mid-season.

    The Good Wife is a tough call – could go any of the three ways – cancled,mis-season or full. No syndication deal hurts more than Blue Bloods that is a season short of the magic “88″.

    Perhaps it’s time to test comedies on Friday a 8pm?

  • JacobYates

    @jonny c
    I know really. Read my comment one page back where I try to explain to Elijah the fallacy of his argument. And I love.Vegas myself

  • Dan

    @Ultima – They definitely have the room for a final season of Good Wife for midseason, my question is will they? I think Jericho was the last returning drama that CBS kept for midseason. A smart move would be to give it a final season but CBS doesn’t operate that way unfortunately.

    I think that would be a good idea to hold Unforgettable’s remaining episodes for the fall or if a fall drama fails. A smart move would be for CBS to air Unforgetable’s entire season Sundays from Sept-Dec and have GW for midseason but thats a long shot.

  • Dan

    CBS could have a bloodbath year like they did in May 2010 and cancel both The Mentalist and Good Wife in addition to Golden Boy, Vegas and CSI NY. That way CBS would have more room for a comedy expansion and 3 dramas and UB. I’m not ruling out that possibility.

  • court

    Place bring csiny back next year it good show.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “CBS could have a bloodbath year like they did in May 2010 and cancel both The Mentalist and Good Wife in addition to Golden Boy, Vegas and CSI NY. That way CBS would have more room for a comedy expansion and 3 dramas and UB. I’m not ruling out that possibility.”

    If you note my current predictions, neither am I. While I don’t think that combination is likely, the pageviews (not to mention cancellation bear twitter fun) would be excellent.

  • Dan

    @Bill – I don’t think it’s likely either noting that I believe Good Wife will be brought back in one way or another but TGW and TM’s ratings are both very low and CBS could do better for Sundays. It would be interesting though.

    Unfortunately FOX is very predictable this year and while their schedule for next season may or may not be predictable, this may be the first season for FOX is a while where we aren’t left guessing the fates of FOX’s shows.

    With Glee definitely returning and Touch definitely ending only The Cleveland Show is in question at this point. I’m still stunned why FOX hasn’t cancelled it, it seems like Futurama back in 2003. Never officially cancelled but no new episodes ordered.

  • TVDude

    I agree with pretty much every prediction.

    I would say Rules is more likely to get canceled than renewed though. I believe contracts are up for negotiation this season and I can’t blame any of the cast members for wanting something else. Of course, if everything falls through, they might stick it out for another season. Any work is better than no work. Still, I’ll be surprised if David Spade or Patrick Warburton can’t find another show.

  • The End

    Although The Amazing Race is in absolutely no danger at all of cancellation, I have noticed that the show is basically down to its core Nielsen audience and has been for a while. Eventually if things don’t change that 18-49 rating will eventually go below 2.0.

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    A smart move would be to give it a final season but CBS doesn’t operate that way unfortunately.

    If CBS needs to get it to 100-episodes to make a syndication deal happen, a short season is likely. Otherwise, I think they will just cancel it.

  • David

    I think there is a strong chance Survivor/Amazing Race will be put into one cycle together, either on Wed. or Sunday. The ratings for both are tanking. I think it has to be done.

  • Ultima

    @The End
    I have noticed that the show is basically down to its core Nielsen audience

    What does that even mean?

    Eventually if things don’t change that 18-49 rating will eventually go below 2.0.

    That’s like predicting the sun will rise in the east.

  • Ultima

    @David
    I think there is a strong chance Survivor/Amazing Race will be put into one cycle together, either on Wed. or Sunday. The ratings for both are tanking.

    You clearly haven’t seen Sunday’s ratings yet. Survivor and The Amazing Race pull decent numbers (declining, but not tanking) and are cheaper than scripted programming.

    I think it has to be done.

    Because otherwise a show you like will be canceled?

  • wallaby2012

    Save Vegas!!!!

  • The End

    @Ultima
    @What does that even mean?

    Sorry, I should of phrased better. Basically my saying the show hasn’t really attracted any new Nielsen viewers, and the viewers it does have are getting older.

    @That’s like predicting the sun will rise in the east.

    You’re right. I guess my post was a bit strange.

  • Sandy

    CSI: NY is the weakest link on CBS here as of now: it’s got age and it’s audience has fallen by a percentage every season since the 7th started (despite it’s Friday night), it’s expensive and although it’s already in syndication, it still needs to bring CBS profit/ratings in the original airings.

    The show (which I am a fan of) has gotten to be tiring/boring, like the writers are not trying any more, the same can be said of Gary Sinise/Mac Taylor. Being a fan of a show doesn’t mean watching every episode, it means knowing when a show is good, when it’s bad, and knowing when it’s time to say goodbye to it. CSI: NY ended last season in a way that for once wasn’t a cliffhanger, and although it wasn’t wrote/filmed as a series finale, I’m willing to accept the last episode as the “de facto finale”. Also CSI: NY did one more crossover w/ CSI this season (which didn’t do much ratings wise), which I didn’t expect this season, so all the more reason to let the show go.

    I’d rather CSI: NY end now than be canceled in season 10 on a sour note/cliff hanger like CSI: Miami (which got worse and outrageous as it aged) did.

    As for The Good Wife/Mentalist, I honestly think CBS should renew them short final seasons – Sundays @ 10PM, Mentalist in the Fall-Winter AND Good Wife Winter-Spring, to wrap up storylines and close out any gaps left in these two series.

  • Dan

    @Ultima – I’m not sure if its the amount of episodes needed for the syndication deal that’s making CBS unable to sell it but for some reason CBS is still having a hard time selling The Good Wife. Maybe they can get a deal this year but if not I’m not sure if another season would help. It certainly would wrap up story lines. It will have 90 episodes in May, a nice 13 episode fifth and final season will get it over 100.

  • CBSviewer

    There’s many possibilities for next Season:

    1) CBS expands their Comedy hours and both of CSI: NY and The Mentalist will be cancelled. The Good Wife moves to Sunday at 10 for a shortened final Season with Survivor as lead-in. Rules of Engagement is Renewed and stays on Monday at 8:30.

    2) CBS does not expand their Comedy hours on Thursday and only one between CSI: NY and The Mentalist is cancelled (maybe The Mentalist because it’s not owned by CBS). The Good Wife moves at 10 with Hawaii Five-0 replacing it at 9.

    3) CBS Renews all their veterans in danger. CSI: NY airs in the fall and The Good Wife replaces it in February (13 episodes order each). The Mentalist stays on Sunday at 10 for a shortened Season (18-20 episodes) with a new drama replacing it in March/April. Elementary moves to Sunday at 9 because I think it’s very similar to The Mentalist.

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