CBS: 'Golden Boy' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:

distracted bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Golden Boy :cry: :cry: 0.64
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.66
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.79
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.84
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 1.03
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.28
NCIS renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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The premiere ratings for CBS' freshman drama Golden Boy arrived at about the same time a malware attack hit our site. Because of that, the Cancellation Bear was a bit distracted and failed to appropriately note the grimness of the premiere ratings. The malware is now gone (fingers crossed!), and the undistracted bear is able to see that Golden Boy is likely to be canceled.

For those who missed last week's CBS post because of the site problems (with a bit of updating):

Let's review the CBS drama situation, again, for the 474th time.

  • CBS has premiered three new dramas each of the last seven Fall's.
  • Assuming CBS keeps the same number of drama hours next Fall, they'll need to cancel three of their Spring dramas to make room (ignore the already dead Made In Jersey, it is irrelevant). Currently, I am predicting those three canceled shows will be Vegas (certainly), CSI:NY (likely), and Golden Boy (likely).
The most common hypotheticals lean towards bad news for more dramas:
  • You think CBS will expand their sitcom time by an hour? Cancel another drama.
  • You think CBS might air Undercover Boss at 8pm Friday next Fall? Cancel another drama.
  • You think CBS will time share their dramas in partial seasons? Increase their drama time on Sunday-Friday? Or air new dramas on Saturday? Check your medication.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • PurpleDrazi

    @Eliajh
    “It would be funny if they would renew low rated shows like Vegas and Golden Boy and cancel high rated shows like NCIS LA just to spite this site.”

    Ha Ha! Yes, it would be hilarious if CBS made a horrible business decision and lost the company millions of dollars just to spite a website that does nothing except report factual ratings information and make logical predictions based on those facts.

  • Holly

    @Doris,

    I don’t understand the ratings

    Let me help a little.

    First, if you click on the FAQ on the top menu bar of this page (sorry, hyperlinking is disabled right now) there is a fun video with puppets explaining the rating.

    Now that you’ve watched that: The important thing about the ratings aren’t really how they are collected, but how they are used. The purpose of the ratings is to provide a basis for networks and advertizing companies to set ad prices. In TV, the viewer is the product and the advertiser is the customer.

    Currently (and for at least 40 years) primetime broadcast ad prices are set primarily on the 18-49 demo. There are a variety of opinions on why that is (younger viewers are less brand loyal or more susceptible to advertising, or just that they watch less TV and so advertisers will pay a premium to reach them). Regardless of why, the reality stands.

    Since ad rates are based on the 18-49 demo, that’s where the networks make their money and so becomes the most important demo in renewal/cancel decisions.

    There are, of course, other factors involved in the decisions.

    A common one is the cost of the show. Unscripted/reality shows can survive with much lower ratings because they cost a lot less. While a particularly expensive scripted show (whether due to age or production/talent costs) will need higher ratings to get renewed (e.g. Terra Nova).

    A major factor, particularly for CBS, is syndication. Shows that make it past 4 seasons can be sold for significant money to cable networks to fill their schedules (e.g. NCIS on USA network or Bones on TNT). That’s why Blue Bloods, for example, is certain to be renewed when it gets similar ratings to the possibly cancelled CSI: NY…That’s also why CSI: NY was renewed last year.

    There are other issues and the networks get far, far more information than is publicly available, but using the ratings and taking into consideration those two factors, it is possible to very accurately predict which shows will be renewed and which will be cancelled.

  • Holly

    Wow, that was really long… sorry.

  • Michael H

    I hope Golden Boy makes it. The second episode was both complex and entertaining. The cases and office shenanigans have been great. I have watched all of Vegas – its okay but pale compared to A&E’s Longmire which has some of the same feel. I love The Good Wife, The Mentalist and Golden Boy – I hope they all succeed this season.

    Why hasn’t Person Of Interest been renewed yet? Could we get an extra episode this year too? You can not make enough of them. Just to show my age I wish we could go back to 26/28 episode seasons with 45 minutes of show content just for POI.

  • Jim

    If CBS is done with CSI:NY then I’m done with CBS. As for Sandy calling CSI:NY the weak link I think you’re the weak link in all your comments.

  • Dan

    @Joe – Your schedule is likely but with Hawaii 5-0 moving to Sundays and Elementary moving to Mondays at 10. Also I expect the NCIS spinoff to air Tuesdays at 10.

    The Mentalist and The Good Wife may end up both being cancelled to accommodate this schedule. With the comedy expansion looking likely it looks possible for CBS to have a bloodbath year this year by cancelling CSI NY, Golden Boy, Vegas, The Mentalist and The Good Wife.

  • Jim

    This is what I think of everybody’s schedule ideas.

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother (How I’d like to meet the POS that created this POS show.)
    8:30 – Rules of Engagement (I think there should be a set of rules on how not make a TV show cuz this one breaks every one of them.)
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls (Great show but will only watch in syndication if CBS has the brains to get it a syndication deal. CBS has the brains. Now that’s a laugh.
    9:30 – Mom (don’t know what’s it about, don’t care)
    10:00 – Beverly Hills Cop (will suck and will never be better than the movie)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS (CSI rip-off)
    9:00 – NCIS: Red (Spin-off of a CSI rip-off)
    10:00 – Elementary (I think this show was written by kids that are still in elementary school)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Person of Interest (Have no interest in this show whatsoever)
    9:00 – Criminal Minds (another CSI rip-off)
    10:00 – CSI (Often imitated never duplicated. one of the few shows worth watching these days)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory (Cancel this Big Bore of a comedy show. It’s not funny at all!)
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY (Who cares? It’s gonna suck anyway.)
    9:00 – Two and a Half Men (You know it’s bad when even one of their own cast members tells you to stop watching the show.)
    9:30 – Mike & Molly (I know fat people get laughed at a lot but these two couldn’t get a laugh even if they paid the audience to laugh at them.)
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles (Another spinoff of a CSI rip-off)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Intelligence / Undercover Boss (2 shows that lack intelligence)
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0 (will get cancelled and will never get the good numbers CSI:NY brought to Friday nights. Besides the original H5O with Jack Lord was way better than this trashy updated version.)
    10:00 – Blue Bloods (Never saw it but if it has Tom Selleck in it it has to be good. Oh and get rid of the tramp with the boy short haircut. Either have her grow it long or just get rid of her completely. Same thing goes for Miley Cyrus. I know she’s not on the show just thought I’d mention it since I mentioned bad haircuts.)

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race (yeah the race to see which reality show is gonna suck the most)
    9:00 – Survivor (It won’t be for long if they move it to Sundays and that’s a good thing along with a canceled Mentalist)
    10:00 – The Good Wife (Say goodbye to this show. it’s done.)

  • TheFrenchGuy

    Possible Schedule for Next Season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother (24 episodes, One Hour Series finale)
    8:30 – Mike & Molly (22 episodes)
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls (24 episodes)
    9:30 – Mom (13 episodes)
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles (24 episodes)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS (24 episodes)
    9:00 – NCIS: Red (13-24 episodes)
    10:00 – Beverly Hills Cop (13-23 episodes)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds (22 episodes)
    10:00 – CSI (22 episodes)

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory (25 episodes, One Hour Season finale)
    8:30 – Two and a Half Men (23 episodes)
    9:00 – Person of Interest (24 episodes)
    10:00 – Intelligence (13-22 episodes)

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – CSI: NY (13 episodes) / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0 (22 episodes)
    10:00 – Blue Bloods (22 episodes)

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Elementary (22 episodes)
    10:00 – The Mentalist (19 episodes) / NEW DRAMA

    Im not an expert and i really want to know what you think of my Schedule.

  • Hepha

    @Jim Besides, I watched yesterday the ratings of CSI NY during the last two years, and honestly it is really steady ! Most of the time, Season 7 ratings were between 9.5 and 10.5 millions viewers, though it was a little bit better with the 18-49 !
    I also realised that last year, the end of season 8 was not good at all, in terms of ratings. Worse than this year !
    So there is hope !

  • Jim

    There better be!

  • DeanW

    Vegas’ ratings to date:

    Episode 1 = 2.5 (14.85 million)
    Episode 2 = 2.0 (12.11 million)
    Episode 3 = 2.0 (11.78 million)
    Episode 4 = 1.6 (10.80 million)
    Episode 5 = 1.7 (10.75 million)
    Episode 6 = 1.6 (10.41 million)
    Episode 7 = 1.8 (10.12 million)
    Episode 8 = 1.6 (9.35 million)
    Episode 9 = 1.5 (10.33 million)
    Episode 10 = 1.6 (9.82 million)
    Episode 11 = 1.6 (10.92 million)
    Episode 12 = 1.6 (11.27 million)
    Episode 13 = 1.9 (11.23 million)
    Episode 14 = 1.5 (10.25 million)
    Episode 15 = 1.5 (9.52 million)

    I think it’s a smart idea to move Vegas to Friday for its final 6 episodes (if the episode order is not reduced).

  • HAPPY!

    @TheFrenchGuy
    Pretty good schedule. I’m not sure there is enough time to launch a new drama Sundays at 10 because only 3 episodes would have the lead in from Elementary. There are lots of time slot and day changes of returning shows that I think could be simplified or else there would be too many shows to advertise.

  • Bette

    CSI NY is the only CSI I watch, hope they give it another year.

  • TheFrenchGuy

    @ HAPPY!

    Thanks !

  • Cameron

    Here’s my attempt at a possible schedule

    MONDAY
    8:00-How I Met Your Mother (24 episodes)
    8:30-Mike and Molly (23 episodes)
    9:00-2 Broke Girls (24 episodes)
    9:30-“Crazy Ones”-NEW COMEDY (13 Episodes)/”Friends With Better Lives”-NEW COMEDY (13 episodes)
    10:00-Hawaii Five-0 (24 episodes)

    TUESDAY
    8:00-NCIS (24 episodes)
    9:00-“NCIS: RED” (NEW) (13 episodes ordered with option for up to 22)
    10:00-NCIS: LA (24 episodes)

    WEDNESDAY (2 cycles of both reality shows, shoved into 12 months)
    8:00-Survivor (fall)/Amazing Race (winter, Jan.-March)/Survivor (spring, end of March-June)/Amazing Race (summer)
    9:00-Criminal Minds (24 episodes)
    10:00-CSI (22 episodes)

    THURSDAY
    8:00-The Big Bang Theory (26 episodes)
    8:30-“Mom”-NEW COMEDY (8 episodes)/Two and a Half Men (18 episodes)
    9:00-Person of Interest (24 episodes)
    10:00-“Intelligence”-NEW DRAMA (13-24 episodes)

    FRIDAY (premieres in November)
    8:00-Elementary (22 episodes)
    9:00-“Beverly Hills Cop”-NEW DRAMA (first 2 episodes air after NCIS before moving to Friday slot) (13-24 episodes)
    10:00-Blue Bloods (22 episodes)

    SUNDAY (night of final seasons)
    8:00-CSI: NY (18 episodes with 2 hour series finale)
    9:00-The Good Wife (18 episodes with 2 hour series finale)
    10:00-The Mentalist (18 episodes)

    I am not experienced so please give me feedback

  • HAPPY!

    @TheFrenchGuy
    No problem

  • CBSviewer

    @ Cameron

    Your Schedule has some problems:

    1) Sunday is actually weak and moving CSI: NY at 8 is not a good idea. The Amazing Race will remain on Sunday because it increases the night’s average.

    2) CBS will not turn Tuesday into an NCIS night. Red will air after the Mothership and NCIS: Los Angeles moves to Monday.

    4) Hawaii Five-0 is more likely to move to Friday to make room for a New Drama on Monday.

    5) If CBS orders a reduced number of episodes for Two and a Half Men it will air in the fall.

    6) Elementary will move to Sunday and air with The Mentalist to replace The Good Wife.

    7) If CSI: NY is Renewed it will remain on Friday because it’s doing OK.

  • AprilFox

    I think it’s time to change the number of episodes from 13 to 6 if they aren’t sure a show will be picked up. What a HUGE waste of money! Six episodes should be enough to see if the show has a fighting chance. Some of the crap that the networks are putting out for HUGE dollars and no return, there definitely needs to be changes made.

  • Holly

    @AprilFox,

    I think you are severely underestimating the time it takes to go from story idea to air. By the time enough ratings were in to determine that the show gets more than their six episodes, everyone would be behind and racing to get each subsequent episode out.

  • Ultima

    @AprilFox

    To add to what Holly said, it also takes some time to promote whichever show is replacing the failed one. 13 episodes is enough to last through the fall, giving the networks a chance to see if they want more episodes or to set up a replacement for midseason. Shorter orders can be (and are) used for shows that aren’t scheduled to air in the fall.

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