CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • CBSviewer

    @ Dave

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Tomorrow People
    9:00 – Hart of Dixie

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – America’s Next Top Model
    9:00 – The Hundred

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – Supernatural

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – The Originals

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Nikita
    9:00 – Beauty and the Beast

    Is that better ?

    I really think Wednesday is perfect as it is and The CW would be crazy to break it. With 90210 now canceled, Beauty and the Beast will be Renewed.

  • Mark

    @CBSviewer

    You’re schedule still sucks

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Rachel: “it’s chances are still marginally better than TCD.”

    Better than marginally, I’d say significantly better despite the retentionistas’ drivel.

    That said, I still think BATB will crash before it ends its run and be canceled.

    The ONLY show of the LOW-rated shows that has a REAL shot at renewal is HoD due to stability in its second season and a syndication shot. As I’ve said before, if I were the CW I’d cancel it, too, but I’ll allow they probably will retain it.

    TCD has NO chance of renewal. Anyone who thinks so because it’s “good on a Monday” or “the CW can’t afford to cancel it” is delusional. The ratings are just too horrible just eight episodes into its first season with zero evidence of growth potential.

  • June

    @Nick, thank you for the info.

    I hope Hart of Dixie’s recent 0.6s may be enough to bump it up to likely renewed. (am pleasantly surprised the ratings did not drop from last week’s episode)

  • Jane

    BatB is scheduled for 24 eps right now. I looked the nbew one is out on the 14th. Seriously its doing almost twice the numbers for HoD.

  • Tierra

    I agree Bizarro. We need to keep our ratings up!

  • AT

    I really don’t see how an average of .4 ratings with 1 million viewers will cut it for TCD. This could change, but as of now if they decide to cancel one more show I think it will be The Carrie Diaries. BATB has a better chance of gaining a cult following, while people may be over teen fashion shows. It doesn’t matter how good the reviews are, it’s starting to look like Emily Owens in the ratings. That said, BATB does need to get up from that .5 it had for two weeks. With the new interesting cast additions coming soon I think they have a chance.

  • Verus

    My guess would be The Carrie Diaries is getting canned.

  • Immaculate

    @Hack

    ‘People keep saying that BATB has “gotten so much better”. Frankly, I don’t see it.’

    You’ve been pissing on BatB from the beginning, so it’s no surprise that you haven’t “seen” it. The fact of the matter is, you’re ludicrously biased, and that’s fine. But, don’t think you have some special ability to diagnose what makes a show great and what doesn’t, because otherwise you would be a successful producer in the industry and not posting your “couch critic” opinions in the comment section of a website that is effectively a Nielsen sounding board.

  • Renee

    @Richard Steven Hack

    “Now they need to kill off Cat’s sister who is the most terminally annoying character on TV right now.”

    I disagree with you re BATB. I think it has improved. Not drastically, but there has been improvement to me. However I do agree with you about Heather. I’m not sure killing her off is the answer right now, sending her off to a distant college would be a better option. But such a very very annoying character.

  • Sil

    It’s a pity for 90210, but I supposed it would have gone in this way.

    The only thing I don’t want to be cancelled is Nikita.

    *crossing fingers*

  • SS

    @June – I’m sure there are lots of places to look, but EW had articles detailing all the pilots ordered and what their general story was a month or two back. You might try ew.com and then search for pilots to find those articles.

    Speaking of pilots – Anthony Stewart Head just signed up for The Selection, so now I really hope that the show is good and gets picked up. Giles ftw.

  • Charmed

    @AT TCD actually averages 0.5

  • holacola

    I loved Emily Owens. So sad to see it cancelled.

  • Lmw931

    Totally agree with Richard, I think they MAY renew BATB but IF they do the rating will fall dramatically in the fall.

    @sil

    Nikita will be renewed due to syndication, your show is safe.

  • omar

    Cult bye bye

  • tscchope

    @RSH Any show can crash before the end of its season and not get renewed.
    HoD pulling 0.6 this season, which means it is likely to pull 0.4 next. Is that hiigh enough to do a run for syndication? Can CW get another season out of BaTB? I think it can. Not so sure CW wants to go through Nikita again with HoD.

  • lakersupbyten

    Kristen Kreuk is a excellent actress,would love to see another season of b&b.

  • JJA

    Why is anyone delusional for thinking TCD and/or BATB will be renewed? Isn’t that what people were saying about Nikita fans last year?

    In my humble opinion, I’m starting to believe that the CW will NOT cancel both BATB and TCD. One will survive, albeit with a preliminary order of 13 episodes. Between the two, I think TCD is more likely to be renewed, primarily because it seems cheaper to produce (thus, it nets a bigger profit than BATB).

    So next year, if TCD gets put on the same night with a new show like Oxygen or The Selection, its ratings can go up (like Supernatural’s did with Arrow). We’re not talking about jumping up to a 1.0, but a modest gain to a steady .6 will be enough to keep it around (especially if the show is dirt-cheap to produce).

    @lakersupbyten–Kristen Kreuk is the best thing about BATB, but I’d rather see her move to a better show than stay stuck playing Cat.

  • herpderp

    @JJA

    Where’s your evidence saying TCD is cheaper to produce than BATB?

    BATB has already been proven cheap to produce and profitable to CBS Studios. I highly doubt TCD is making anyone money.

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