CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Ryann

    Monday – Oxygen, Hart of Dixie

    Tuesday – The Hundred, Supernatural

    Wednesday – Arrow, The Tomorrow People

    Thursday – The Vampire Diaries, The originals

    Friday – Nikita, The Carrie Diaries

    Mid season – The selection

    I chose carrie over beauty and the beast becasue it gets the same ratings and is a 9pm show. Although I dont think Carrie and Nikita should be paired, theirs no where else for it to go and im pretty sure the cw will wont to renew it.
    The selection will repelace Carrie after it 13 episodes and will change time slots with which ever show is doing worst i.e. if oxygen is doing poor, put it on fridays and selection at mondays

  • Davis

    @tscchope

    Actually if you did any research you would see HART OF DIXIE has held almost the EXACT same number throughout it’s entire series- always between 0.5-0.7 …so there is no reason to think it would be SOLIDLY doing 0.4’s next season considering it’s numbers didn’t dip at all in the 2nd season. HOD could easily be one of those Seventh Heaven/One Tree Hill type shows that never has amazing numbers, but good numbers for many, many seasons.

  • Charmed

    I think they should pick Carrie, after all, does a 0.1 difference really matter? Maybe if they were both self-starters, but only Carrie is.

  • Charmed

    What did HOD average last year?

  • Melanie

    @Davis I didn’t make a study of Seventh Heaven or One Tree Hill’s ratings relative to the rest of the network at the time they were airing, but I would be willing to bet you that in their second seasons they were significantly better than what HOD is doing now.
    HOD is only in its second season. Its a damn good thing it stayed steady because at a .6 on M-TH it literally HAS NOWHERE TO FALL even for the CW. A .6 is not good. Its only slightly less pathetic than a .5 in a first season.
    I agree that HOD has the ‘best’ ratings of the bubble shows but it wasn’t good enough for an early renewal. Fans of the bubble shows – don’t kid yourselves — the CW would dump them all in a heartbeat if they thought something else would do better.

  • Charmed

    @Melanie I think the reason HOD didnt get an early renewal is because they can’t renew everything at early renewals!

  • RyanCanada

    umm, i dont think TCD is cheaper to produce, since im pretty sure CW pays franchise rights to HBO to air that show, not sure im right, but they must pay something and BATB to me will be the one renewed.

  • Rachel

    Isn’t filming in NY expensive anyway?

  • Melanie

    @Charmed — I don’t understand — what would stop the CW from giving an early pick-up if they were certain HOD (or any other show) had made the cut?

  • June

    @tscchope

    That doesn’t make sense. Why do you think the CW can get another season out of BatB but not HOD when HOD is currently outperforming BatB and it is in it’s second season?

  • James

    I think the CW is waiting for any last minute rating defaults. (TSC?)

  • Jennifer

    Isn’t it possible that The Cw renews both TCD BATB since they’ve already cancelled/ended 3 shows: EOMD, GG, 90210?

  • Brandy

    @jennifer, no.CW will put four to five new shows on next season and GG,La Complex,Emily Owens,90210, Cult(which is unofficially cancelled right now but will be officially cancelled in May or sooner) only frees 2_3 spots on the schedule.CW hasnt cancelled only three shows since the season before last.Last season, six shows were cancelled/ended:Ringer,Secret Circle,H8tr,Remodeled,The Frame,OTH.This season so far five shows have been cancelled/ended:90210,Emily Owens,GG,LA Complex,Cult and they could cancel both CD,&BaTB or keep BATB.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Jane: “Seriously its doing almost twice the numbers for HoD.”

    You are utterly delusional – or dyslexic with regard to numbers.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Immaculate: “You’ve been pissing on BatB from the beginning”

    Because it’s been crap from the beginning.

    “you’re ludicrously biased”

    And you’re a fan of the show, which makes you NOT “ludicrously biased”, right?

    “don’t think you have some special ability to diagnose what makes a show great and what doesn’t”

    My “special ability” is called common sense.

    “because otherwise you would be a successful producer in the industry”

    Make me an offer…

    Your entire post is utterly irrelevant since the show’s ratings are still going to drop and it will be canceled.

    So suck it! :-)

  • Danielle

    I looked up the pilot shows for the CW, the only two I would consider watching would be The Originals (which I’m not convinced will work) and The Tomorrow People. None of the others sounded like something I would want to watch. JMO

    My vote for renewal goes to BATB.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    tscchope: “@RSH Any show can crash before the end of its season and not get renewed.”

    Gee, thank you for the amazing insight… I’m sure we’re all worried about Dancing With The Stars crashing by end of its run and getting canceled… :-)

    “HoD pulling 0.6 this season, which means it is likely to pull 0.4 next. Is that hiigh enough to do a run for syndication?”

    It was for Nikita. Now personally I think Nikita has a much better shot at syndication, especially in Asia due to Maggie Q’s star power, but HoD might have a shot as well. It’s up to the studio to decide that, not me. In the case of Nikita, that decision WAS made or we wouldn’t be watching Nikita in a third season based on its season two ratings.

    When the decision is made to renew HoD, THEN is when we will KNOW.

    “Can CW get another season out of BaTB?”

    No chance. The ratings suck this far into its first season, they will be probably 30% or more lower next season – with no shot at syndication at that point.

    “Not so sure CW wants to go through Nikita again with HoD.”

    Again, it’s not really the CW’s decision. As long as the studio gives a cheap enough rate to the CW, and the CW doesn’t see a change to make more money otherwise, it will renew.

    Again, I personally wouldn’t – but I don’t run the CW.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    JJA: “Why is anyone delusional for thinking TCD and/or BATB will be renewed?”

    If you’d read my posts, you’d know.

    “Isn’t that what people were saying about Nikita fans last year?”

    Except we didn’t take syndication into account. We’ve learned. Neither TCD nor BATB have ANY syndication potential at this point because they haven’t done well enough to get a second season, let alone a third.

    “Between the two, I think TCD is more likely to be renewed, primarily because it seems cheaper to produce (thus, it nets a bigger profit than BATB).”

    Ridiculous. TCD’s ratings are significantly worse than BATB which means its ad revenue is worse. And you don’t know how much EITHER show costs to produce. Unless you can produce figures, you’re blowing smoke.

    “if TCD gets put on the same night with a new show like Oxygen or The Selection, its ratings can go up”

    Currently its season average is pathetic a mere eight episodes into its first season. And you think if it’s paired with a NEW show, its ratings will go UP?

    You really have no clue how television works. Give it up.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Ryann: :I chose carrie over beauty and the beast becasue it gets the same ratings”

    Oh, please! At least LOOK at the ratings before babbling this nonsense!

    TCD’s average is significantly lower than BATB and it’s aired only HALF the episodes!

    Why do people post this nonsense like no one else here can tell it’s BS?

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Charmed: “I think they should pick Carrie, after all, does a 0.1 difference really matter? Maybe if they were both self-starters, but only Carrie is.”

    That’s nonsense. Since BATB isn’t holding TVD lead-in, it’s numbers STAND ON THEIR OWN! And they’re better than TCD’s and that’s with TWICE the episodes aired!

    Do people here think cherry-picking alleged “facts” makes their case any stronger?

    Look at the NUMBERS! They are overwhelmingly the main decision element in renewal! Not whether a show retains its lead-in, not whether it doesn’t have a lead-in, not whether it’s “good for the night” – but whether it BRINGS IN AD REVENUE!

    TCD is NOT bringing in ad revenue. BATB is doing better – but not much, and is likely to do worse before it ends its run.

    BOTH are going to be canceled.

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