CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    For those who haven’t read my post on page 5, here it is again. Look at the NUMBERS!

    Nothing has changed from last week.

    The Carried Diaries season average as of last week was .51. This week it got a .3, down 25% from last week’s .4. And it’s not “13 episodes in”, it’s EIGHT episodes in with this horrible rating. It’s doomed. Totally. Period. End of story.

    Beauty and the Beast had a .65 season average as of February 21. It got a .5 in the demo even with its previous episode. It is 14 episodes in to its first season. Clearly it has a far better shot at renewal than The Carrie Diaries.

    The advantage it has is the alleged 1.5 million per episode earned in international sales. Also, the show has twice been given either additional scripts or a full 22 episode order, indicating the CW thinks the show has potential.

    It also has the advantage of being adored by a lot of female fans who are enamored with the love story.

    The disadvantage it has is that it’s CRAP. :-) And I submit that is more important for the general audience than the fans who like the love story.

    So I predict the ratings will collapse just as they did for Ringer and TSC over the next eight episodes. I predict it will be doing .3-.4 before it ends its run and will be canceled. If it DOES get renewed, it will moved to Fridays where it will do worse than Nikita, averaging .3-.4 at best. Only the alleged international sales revenue might have a shot at offsetting those ratings. In any event, it won’t get a season three at those ratings and will not be syndicated.

    Hart of Dixie has a .56 season average as of February 26. It is VERY stable, fluctuating between .5 and .6 for most of the season. It is in its second season, 16 episodes in.

    Because HoD is stable and is in its second season, there is every reason for its studio to offer the show to the CW at a price that will get it two more seasons for syndication purposes, like Nikita (although without Nikita’s star power in Asia.)

    I predict if ANY of the LOW-rated shows on the CW gets renewed, it will be HoD. But it will depend on the studio seeing syndication potential in it. If I was the CW, I would cancel it, but that’s me.

    Nikita of course is a lock for season four even if it hits 0.0 in the ratings. Suck it, haters!

    I do think the CW WILL cancel more than one more show. I think those shows will be TCD and BATB. TCD is near certainty, BATB will only survive if its ratings stay where they are right now – which I find doubtful.

  • RS

    Let’s see – TCD or Beauty and the Male Model. I’ll never watch either, but which offends me the most in principle. I liked Sex and the City, and am not offended by a teen version. I’ve watched every version of B & B I could find – from the French version, to George C. Scott, to the Oscar nominated aminated movie. It’s a wonderful story of love triumphing over physical disfigurement. This version, from the previews and reviews is something triumphing over Mr. Pretty with a (wait for it CW watchers – the HORROR) a little scar on his face. One reviewer stated that, if he believed that the CW had a sense of irony, this would be it. “OMG, he has a scar on his face; he’s a monster; get the pitchforks.” What a joke. And an insult to the trope.

  • Jessica

    I don’t understand why people think TCD will do well overseas simply because SITC is huge there. Just because it’s based off of the same characters doesn’t many it will appeal to the original’s audience. I liked SITC but have absolutely no desire to watch TCD. I liked HOD last year and was glad that it was renewed but this year I just couldn’t get interested. I honestly don’t know why they would keep it around for syndication purposes. If it’s having trouble finding an audience in it’s original run I don’t know why they think anyone would want to watch it in syndication. I like BaTB but I would honestly be very surprised if it gets a second season. I do however think that the CW doesn’t need to just base it’s BaTB decision off of it losing a lot of it’s TVD lead in because no show has done great after TVD. The Originals (if it get’s picked up) will likely be their best chance of holding TVD audience.

  • Danielle

    @RS The CW’s Beauty and the Beast is a reboot of previous tales, maybe you don’t understand the term “reboot”? ”In serial fiction, to reboot means to discard all established continuity in a series and start over from the beginning” (I hope the words aren’t too big for you…) BATB is focusing more on the beast within Vincent, than a disfigured beast. Maybe try watching it before constantly bashing it!

    There’s just no pleaseing some people! “He’s not ugly enough, she’s too pretty..” blah, blah, blah! You’d probably complain if he was too ugly and she wasn’t pretty enough! It IS called BEAUTY and the Beast…she’s SUPPOSED to be beautiful, and just because she is doesn’t mean she can’t also kick butt! If you did your homework you would know she has a high ranking belt in karate. Also, if you DID watch, you would know that when he turns into the beast, he is extremely ugly! Personally, I think the path CW took with the beast is perfect. I LOVE this show, and I hope it gets a second season.

  • Immaculate

    “Because it’s been crap from the beginning.”

    That’s your blithering opinion that you incessantly keep stating here. Hacks tend to overvalue to their opinions and are often quite deluded.

    “And you’re a fan of the show, which makes you NOT “ludicrously biased”, right?”

    No it doesn’t. But it gives me a reason for supporting it. If you don’t like it so much, why do you keep watching it? Why do you persist in putting it down? Don’t give me some empty reason like “it’s so bad, it’s good.” Shut up before you even start.

    “My ‘special ability’ is called common sense.”

    No. It’s called an opinion.

    “Make me an offer…”

    Why? What qualifications do you have? Incessant ramblings on this message board hardly qualify as experience.

    “Your entire post is utterly irrelevant since the show’s ratings are still going to drop and it will be canceled.”

    That’s simply your desire.

  • Melanie

    @Angellica T
    The CW can’t ‘renew’ TSC now even if they wanted to (and they don’t).

    They didn’t keep the actors under contract except for Phoebe Tonkin who is already in something else for them.
    The rest of the actors and the creative teams have moved on to other projects.
    The sets have been torn down and the studios are in use by other productions.
    The rights to the material probably haven’t reverted back yet, but WB won’t release them so someone else can use them until they have to —

    No matter how many times you ask and no matter how nicely you ask, the Secret Circle is not coming back.

    I’m sorry – its sad to lose a favorite show, I know – but its time to move on.

  • Charmed

    @RSH Stop whining! TCD has never got a 0.3, it got a 0.4, and BATB doesn’t have more of a chance! It got one 1.2, and then it was downhill from there, stop trying to make it sound like some powerhouse. Of course it matters that its on after TVD, if that was the case TSC would still be airing new episodes! Please stop writing essays and screaming at TCD fans. Not everyone agrees with your opinion.

  • sasha

    @Charmed

    TCD has pulled multiple 0.4 and has barely mustered 1 mill. BATB does better in ratings and socially. No one is saying batb is a powerhouse but comparing the two shows BATB has a better chance of getting a S2.

  • June

    TCD is pulling 0.4s and BatB is pulling 0.5s recently. It’s a close call I think.

  • James

    @Richard Steven Hack

    OH PLEASE!!!!!! Do you at least LOOK at the ratings?!?!? The Carrie Diaries NEVER got a 0.3. It just proves how dumb people can be!! I don’t think The Carrie Diaries will be renewed and I don’t even watch the show. But, please, before you whine and preach your views, just look at the facts (ratings?) first!!!! Omg.

    MY PREDICTION:

    Monday
    Hart of Dixie
    Company Town (new)

    Tuesday
    100 (new)
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Tomorrow People (new)

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new)

    Friday
    ANTM/Nikita
    repeats

    MIDSEASON:
    BaTB (13)
    Oxygen (13)

  • abcfamilyfan

    BABT only chance or renewal is a 13 episode filler/mid season replacement, to replace which ever show tanks, in the fall

    carrie diaries is GONE let it go.. they have to many pilots they can air with HOD to get it to syndication

    CW is casting awesome actors,(isaiah washington, Natalie Hall,Matt Lanter,John Benjamin hickey,Mark Pelligrino,Amiee Teegarden, Henry Ian Cusick,etc. etc.) i don’t know if they have found new money or what but at the rate they are going i would not be surprised if they launch 4 new shows in the fall, and either Whose line is it anyway or ANTM

    and then hold a shortened BABT season, plus a brand new drama at mid season…

  • Ryann

    @Richard Steven Hack
    Okay dude you seem very angry, it was only an opinon.
    Carries last eight episodes gained .6, .5, .5, .7, .5, .4, .4, .4
    Beautys last eigh episodes gained .6, .5, .6, .7, .7, .6, .5, .5
    Carries average 0.5, beautys 0.58
    Does that difference really matter? Like I said beauty gets a lead in (the best one) and carrie is paired with the worst perfoming show on the CW, so yes carrie should get the renewal in all fairness.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Immaculate: “That’s your blithering opinion”

    And your opinion that the show will be renewed is “blithering.”

    “But it gives me a reason for supporting it.”

    And my dislike gives me a reason for NOT supporting it.

    What ALSO gives me a reason is the FACT that the ratings are CRAP.

    “If you don’t like it so much, why do you keep watching it?”

    For the same reason I watch other shows I initially started watching and ended up not liking: because I want to see 1) whether it will get better, and 2) how much worse will it get? Both of which are valid reasons for watching.

    “No. It’s called an opinion.”

    Right. And my opinion is backed up by REASONS whereas your opinion is backed up by your asshole.

    “Incessant ramblings on this message board hardly qualify as experience.”

    I could hardly do worse than the morons who put Cult and BATB on the air, can I?

    “That’s simply your desire.”

    It’s a FACT and I can’t wait to rub it in your face when it happens.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Charmed: “@RSH Stop whining!”

    Excuse me? You TCD and BATB fans are the ones whining.

    “TCD has never got a 0.3, it got a 0.4″

    I was reposting my first post which I corrected later. Not that .4 or even .5 is all that better. I’ve listed TCD ratings in earlier posts. It’s season average is SIGNIFICANTLY lower than BATB and MUCH lower than HoD.

    “BATB doesn’t have more of a chance! It got one 1.2, and then it was downhill from there”

    Frankly I agree with you and have repeated said so if you’d pay attention. Nonetheless BATB debuted at TWICE the ratings for TCD and TCD has had worse ratings with HALF the episodes aired than BATB. This is FACT.

    “stop trying to make it sound like some powerhouse.”

    Again, if you’d paid attention to my posts, you’d realize that is the LAST thing I’ve been trying to do. I’ve said repeatedly that BATB is very likely to be canceled, which is precisely what the Renew/Cancel Index says. Only “beasties” are claiming it’s a “powerhouse”, which it is not.

    Try reading what I’ve posted repeatedly here before mouthing off.

    “Not everyone agrees with your opinion.”

    And I couldn’t care less about yours because it’s based on nothing but delusion.

    June: “TCD is pulling 0.4s and BatB is pulling 0.5s recently. It’s a close call I think.”

    Not if you take into account number of episodes aired. Again, I expect BOTH shows to be canceled – but TCD first because its numbers are truly pathetic.

    James: “OH PLEASE!!!!!! Do you at least LOOK at the ratings?!?!? The Carrie Diaries NEVER got a 0.3.”

    Look, stupid. I reposted my original which erroneously reported the erroneously reported by OTHERS the .3. I corrected that post elsewhere, just not here.

    “before you whine and preach your views, just look at the facts (ratings?) first!!!! ”

    Before YOU whine and preach, look at the ratings first. I have LISTED those ratings in various posts for the benefit of the MORONS here who claim TCD has better ratings than BATB and other nonsensical claims.

    So shove your screaming up your ass.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Ryann: “Okay dude you seem very angry, it was only an opinon.”

    A STUPID opinion. Stupid opinions make me irritated – especially when they are repeated ad nauseum by people who don’t even bother to look at the ratings.

    “Carries last eight episodes gained .6, .5, .5, .7, .5, .4, .4, .4
    Beautys last eigh episodes gained .6, .5, .6, .7, .7, .6, .5, .5
    Carries average 0.5, beautys 0.58
    Does that difference really matter?”

    Yes, it does. BATB has aired twice the episodes TCD has. That means TCD has gone down faster. Picking the last eight episodes is cherry-picking. Yes, I know the guys here recalculate beginning after the winter hiatus because it produces better predictions. Nonetheless, the fact that TCD debuted so low and has dropped further clearly shows weakness compared to BATB.

    Nonetheless, as I have REPEATEDLY SAID HERE OVER AND OVER, BATB is ALSO doing CRAP numbers and will undoubtedly drop further before it ends its run. I predict BOTH shows will be canceled because BOTH are doing CRAP numbers.

    “Like I said beauty gets a lead in (the best one)”

    SO WHAT? The fact is NO show does well after TVD. So the fact that BATB is doing bad numbers there basically shows what that show would do if it did NOT have a lead-in. Which is crap numbers. We CANNOT say that the show would be doing MUCH worse than it is now if it were in some other slot. It might, it might not. It’s pure SPECULATION.

    And it doesn’t MATTER. That is where BATB was slotted and that is where the CW will be looking at its numbers.

    It’s NOT a question of BATB vs TCD at all. It’s just STUPID to say TCD is BETTER with its CRAP numbers than BATB. The fact is TCD is pulling CRAP numbers WHERE IT IS. That’ ALL that matters. It’s just an EXCUSE to say TCD would be pulling better numbers if it was somewhere else.

    NEITHER show is going to be renewed because they are BOTH pulling CRAP numbers.

    Get it through your head and stop bringing up nonsense to suggest that TCD should be renewed. It’s embarrassing.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Once again for the retarded: season averages for TCD, BATB and HoD…

    Episode 01-08: Monday, 03/04/13
    0.4 in the demo (0% change) with 1.10 million (+10% change).
    Season averages: 0.50 in the demo with 1.27 million.

    Episode 01-14: Thursday, 02/21/13
    0.5 in the demo (0% change) with 1.52 million (+9% change).
    Season averages: 0.65 in the demo with 1.73 million.

    Hart of Dixie: Season Two

    Episode 02-17: Tuesday, 03/05/13
    0.6 in the demo (0% change) with 1.50 million (+9% change).
    Season averages: 0.56 in the demo with 1.41 million

    Anyone who can’t see the difference between a .65 season average with FOURTEEN episodes aired and a .5 season average with EIGHT episodes aired is RETARDED.

    And anyone who can’t see the difference between a .4 episode rating for TCD in SEASON ONE and a .6 episode ratings for HoD in SEASON TWO is ALSO RETARDED.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Sorry, first ratings should be headed “TCD”, second ratings should be headed “BATB” Third ratings are for HoD.

  • cameron

    oxygen, tomorrow people, and the originals are sure to get picked up. but the tomorrow people aren’t supposed to be teenagers, are they? oxygen should be renamed Orion or Orion Nine.

  • James

    @ Richard Steven Hack

    I apologize for calling you ‘dumb’, and i agree that TCD and BaTB have hideous ratings and both should be cancelled. It’s obvious that BaTB has slightly better ratings than TCD and a gold star for you for noticing it. However, it would be nice if you stop bullying people and their opinions.

    PLEASE don’t turn into last season’s “Mikey” (the guy obsessed with NIKITA)

  • Bizarro

    @Richard Steven Hack
    If Beauty keeps on pulling .5′s or higher it will probably be renewed because the CW can’t afford five pilots PLUS midseason replacements for next season. Also, since the CW probably won’t put a freshman show on Friday, and nine hours of new programming seems pathetic. The CW has only renewed only one freshman drama for the last few years. So, I think the CW knows that most are likely to fail next season no matter how good the pilot looks. Though the CW does have a few promising pilots next season but hey Ringer and TSC still failed when everyone thought Hart would be cancelled. If its on the CW, most are going to fail. They might though give Beauty 13 to 16 eps if it gets renewed and let ANTM run into the fall on fridays or they could bring it back. The only thing I agree completely with you on is the time slot and if it goes to another time slot, it does not mean the show will do worse and since its with TVD should not be a reason for its cancellation. But noone knows that Beauty will fall even further yet, so you really shouldn’t be commenting that it probably will until IF it happens. You never know it could go higher.

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