CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Brandy

    @Bizzaro, one or two of the five pilots picked up will be Midseason shows like Cult & Carrie Diaries this season and Remodeled & LA Complex last season(OTH too but that wasn’t a new show).

  • Rachel

    @cameron

    Yeah, Oxygen will need a name change to not be confused with the network. I also think the Selection will be picked up for Mid-Season.

  • Laticia Jones

    Headline for next week: Hart of Dixie upgraded, Beauty and the Beast downgraded, The Carrie Diaries still on the bubble

  • Bizarro

    @Brandy
    So that would definitely mean that the CW will be renewing at least three shows as I expected. So, if Beauty continues getting the ratings it will be getting, it will probably get renewed unless it goes down. Hart and Nikita are certain to be renewed. So, that leaves four hours of programming and the CW may pick up four pilots to air during the fall and have two midseason replacements. Because of this, they might bring back ANTM in the regular broadcast season. So, thus six pilots aren’t being picked up just five.

  • Abigail

    Renewed
    Supernatural
    The Vampire Diaries
    Nikita
    Hart of Dixie
    Arrow
    Beauty and the Beast

    Cancelled/Ended
    Gossip Girl
    Emily Owens, M.D.
    90210
    Cult
    The Carrie Diaries

    New series
    Oxygen
    The Originals
    The Selection
    The Tomorrow People

  • MrPierreMazz

    My perfect 2013 – 2014 schedule:
    Monday:
    8:00 – Tomorrow People
    9:00 – Beauty and The Beast
    (Because 2 shows can’t be launched on a single night)
    Tuesday:
    8:00 – Oxygen (shipped to fridays for midseason)/The Selection
    9:00 – Hart of Dixie
    Wednesday:
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – Supernatural
    Thursday:
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – The Originals
    Friday:
    8:00 – Nikita (Final Season)
    9:00 – The Originals repeats or America’s Next Top Model/Oxygen

  • Richard Steven Hack

    James: “I apologize for calling you ‘dumb’”

    Apology accepted – and so rare… :-)

    “However, it would be nice if you stop bullying people and their opinions.”

    If people stop uttering nonsense about TCD being renewed, I wouldn’t have to call them on it.

    “PLEASE don’t turn into last season’s “Mikey” (the guy obsessed with NIKITA)”

    Never. He was delusional the way the TCD people are. Nikita got renewed for NONE of the reasons he cited, just syndication. TCD people have NO excuse whatever for their belief the show can be renewed.

    Bizarro: “If Beauty keeps on pulling .5?s or higher it will probably be renewed because the CW can’t afford five pilots PLUS midseason replacements for next season.”

    I’ve heard this argument before. I don’t generally pay attention to scheduling or new pilots much, but I still contend the CW can cancel more shows than people expect because they have quite a few pilots to air. Therefore I view this argument as speculative at best.

    As the post says, “There’s still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.”

    “The CW has only renewed only one freshman drama for the last few years.”

    This year may be the year when they don’t.

    “So, I think the CW knows that most are likely to fail next season no matter how good the pilot looks.”

    That’s true for every network.

    “if it goes to another time slot, it does not mean the show will do worse”

    If it goes to Friday, it will do worse. If it goes anywhere else, its ratings are speculative because it depends on the slot and the competition in that slot. Which is why I don’t bother speculating about such things.

    “But noone knows that Beauty will fall even further yet, so you really shouldn’t be commenting that it probably will until IF it happens. You never know it could go higher.”

    To play the odds, you have to know the odds. Shows in the spring almost always drop somewhat. BATB is likely to drop at LEAST a tenth of a point starting in the next few weeks.

    I believe – but cannot prove at this point – that it will drop like Ringer and TSC did, i.e. sufficiently to reduce its season average to .5, which is cancellation territory. Its season average now is .65, which is not bad – but TSC was considerably higher at this point and it dropped and was canceled despite being MUCH closer to TVD in concept and quality than BATB is.

    The odds of it going higher are WAY lower than the odds of it going lower.

  • James

    Hart if Dixie: Likely to be renewed
    IMO

  • tscchope

    @RSH You’re treating shows losing viewers as though this means something. There are some shows that it’s more likely than others.

    According to the ratings BaTB is the highest of the non-renewed shows. TCD is likely cancelled. It’s not doing very well ratings wise.
    If you’re saying HoD is now reliant on syndication to save it, I would agree wit hyou. Does it’s star have the same drawing poweras Nikita’s? I think the answer is no, and that HOD is not going to be synducated and wiill therefore be cancelled.

    You say there’s no cahnce of BATB securing another season. You justify that by saying that in your view it will lose viewers between now and the end of its season. Yes, it may very well do so. Lose enough so that it’s not renewed? I think not. You say there’s no chance. Clearly you are wrong for there is a chance.

  • Brandy

    @TSCChope, CW cant cancel one or both of CD and BATB plus Cult,GG,EOMD,LA Complex,90210 plus HoD.Youre just bitter steady stable cheap HoD got renewed over your more exspensive falling in ratings despite having the best lead in show..CW will try to syndicate as,many shows as possible, and that may include HOD.Further, look at Cult,EOMD,CD,BaTBs ratings and youll see HoD is doing better than them ,well same as BatB for now but BaTB has the best leadin to get the same ratings as HoD without one.HoD and BaTB I believe are tied for fourth highest rated cw show for now. HoD is procedural(which means viewrrs can jump in any episode& not be totally lost)., which makes it easier to syndicate too.
    RSH is right in its not good that BaTB is loosing viewers in both toal viewers and demo as the season goes on and is also correct that most shows fall in ratings in spring, so its at least possible that BaTB will contulinue falling.

  • Dan

    I still think that only one of Beauty & the Beast & The Carrie diaries would be cancelled, but not both. 5 dramas are certain to return (SPN, TVD, Arrow, Nikita, and Hart of Dixie) Anyone who thinks Hart of Dixie is bubble also thought Nikita was bubble last season. HOD this season is Nikita last season and Nikita needs to achieve syndication.

    Renewed
    Supernatural
    The Vampire Diaries
    Nikita
    Hart of Dixie
    Arrow
    The Carrie Diaries

    Cancelled/Ended
    Gossip Girl
    Emily Owens, M.D.
    90210
    Cult
    Beauty and the Beast

    New series
    Oxygen
    The Originals
    The Selection
    The Tomorrow People

    History repeats itself and even with a new president, the CW isn’t ready to completely dump all bubble shows. So they cancelled 90210, they showed that not all series get a final farewell season. This is the season of teen dramas being dumped but just because veterans Gossip Girl & 90210 got dumped doesnt mean The Carrie Diaries is in danger to. Unless Carrie Diaries completely bombs this will be my guess until May.

    Its really TCD vs. BATB for that sixth slot.

  • Alan

    Bizarro’s reasons to renew BATB are delusional. Seriously, a show that is after The Vampire Diaries should pull 0.6′s and up, not 0.5′s. I think they will finally find a hit with The Originals.

    Renewed: The Carrie Diaries (13 episodes, like Life Unexpected), Nikita (obviously), Hart of Dixie
    Cancelled: Beauty and the Beast, Cult

  • Alan

    Actually, The Carrie Diaries is doing fine. It’s a new show that doesn’t have a lead-in (like in any other network, new shows have lead-ins, but TCD doesn’t, it would have done really bad at the 9pm slot), so I think it’s holding something, besides 90210 didn’t got a final season for a slot that I think it was meant for The Carrie Diaries, so I don’t think they cancel shows from the same night in one year. Cult is just horrible, the show is just weird, and the ratings are really bad. I wonder if The CW will pull it off like they did with The Beautiful Life, but I guess they will keep it because they don’t have anything else to air. I think that by this point, The Carrie Diaries has a better chance of renewal than BATB.

  • Brandy

    Alan, No CD is not “doing fine” regardless of having a leadin or not.Its a freshman show that got 0 4s the last three weeks in the first half of its first season with potential to drop further with DST as most shows do in spring.CW has renewed only one getting 0 4s in its first couple seasons_Nikita & due to international sales and syndication.CD is too far away from syndication and the fact its season ends before May Sweeps is a bad sign.Further,CD is exspensive to make: shooting in NY,the 80s timeframe, ect.Plus, with all the promotion, CD should be doing better.CW is also moving away from teen dramas to teen genre shows next season.BaTB has a higher season rating average than CD but with the best leadin on the network getting medicore ratings but they may cancel BaTB too.BaTB is a genre show,the type of show CW is going for next season so it has a better chance of renwal than CD, but its not doing that great either, given its leadin.

  • Brandy

    @Alan, I’d agree with you if CD and BaTB both maintained 0.6-0.7 or CD did but BatB fell below, but that’s not whappened.BaTB also has yet to hit 0.4.Plus BaTB suppossedly does well online, internationally and is cheap to make in its favor.Not sure about CD-I did see it once on the top 25 (or so) DVr list a couple weeks ago though.Im not sure about BaTB in that area.

  • Bizarro

    @Alan
    You really are delusional if the CW is renewing a freshman show with .4′s. Does Ringer ring a bell? Which I loved but it also got .4′s and was also shot in NY. OH and to top it all off it ended in April too and was replaced in May with a much lower rated show. If Beauty does not start getting .6′s and higher again with the occasional .5 it will be cancelled. But it’s very hard to predict what show will be renewed with Nikita and Hart in May. Also Hart did not and has not ever fallen to a .4. Another reason TCD will be cancelled because Hart was stable at .6′s in it’s first season not .4′s. Also it is cheaper to make, heck every show that hasn’t been renewed is cheaper than TCD.

  • julia

    The CW Network should cancel all the shows that do not reach 1.0 / 0.9. Cw must renew itself is to survive! Actors of B & B are also mediocre actor Stephen Amell the fact that his expressions are two: the shirt,without a shirt

  • Richard Steven Hack

    tscchope: “If you’re saying HoD is now reliant on syndication to save it, I would agree wit hyou.”

    It’s not “if” I’m saying it, I’ve been saying it all along.

    “Does it’s star have the same drawing poweras Nikita’s? I think the answer is no, and that HOD is not going to be synducated and wiill therefore be cancelled.”

    I would agree with that. It’s the way I would run the CW. BUT IF the claim that the CW can’t AFFORD to cancel that many shows this season, then HoD is the ONLY show that will remain BECAUSE its ratings are stable, just enough to justify it as Nikita’s was, and because it’s a POSSIBLE candidate for syndication. We won’t know for CERTAIN if it’s a candidate for syndication until it GETS a third season. Then, just like Nikita, we will KNOW.

    “You say there’s no cahnce of BATB securing another season. You justify that by saying that in your view it will lose viewers between now and the end of its season. Yes, it may very well do so. Lose enough so that it’s not renewed? I think not. You say there’s no chance. Clearly you are wrong for there is a chance.”

    I actually generally don’t use the phrase “no chance” for BATB. I usually use that phrase for TCD. That said, I don’t see BATB having much of a chance because the ratings will drop this season and THEN they will drop significantly next season. In short, it will have done poorly this season and VERY poorly next season. That is not a show that is a candidate for syndication.

    As I’ve said repeatedly, a show has to make money in seasons one and two to get a shot at seasons three and four. For the CW, this means a season average of .6 or higher for season one, and .5 or higher for season two. TCD can’t do that this season – it’s already at a season average of .5 – and I doubt BATB will either by the time it ends its run because it’s already at a .65 – and likely to drop this week after the hiatus.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Alan: “It’s a new show that doesn’t have a lead-in (like in any other network, new shows have lead-ins, but TCD doesn’t”

    This lead-in nonsense is just complete BS. Are we supposed to decide that EVERY show on EVERY network that doesn’t have a lead-in and does CRAP ratings is “fine”?

    Seriously? What other show on any network is anyone here arguing this for? Only the TCD fans!

    “I don’t think they cancel shows from the same night in one year.”

    Don’t be ridiculous. This has absolutely nothing to do with it.

    “The Carrie Diaries has a better chance of renewal than BATB.”

    It is ALL about RATING. BATB has a season average of .65 whereas TCD has a season average of .6. There is NO WAY ANY show with a .5 average halfway through its FIRST season gets renewed.

    I don’t care WHAT the excuses are. You find me ONE SHOW in the last five years on the CW that was doing a season average of .5 in the first half of its first season and got renewed! Find me one or kick this nonsense down the road!

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Obviously I screwed up the TCD rating in that last post. It’s .5, not .6.

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