CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Charmed

    @RSH 5 years ago the network average was way higher, so when all shows are down, they lower their expectations. A .5 now was like a .9 years ago.

  • Danielle

    Personally, I think BATB’s ratings will hold steady if not increase. And before I get called delusional and get told how WRONG I am, let me explain. 1) BATB repeats have held an higher percentage of viewers than other CW shows which to me says it has a solid die-hard fanbase, 2) I only started watching this show 2 weeks before it’s hiatus and already I’m hooked on this show, it’s THAT GOOD! And because I love it so much I have talked non stop about it the last few weeks and already have a few friends & family hooked and have convinced some coworkers to try watching it too. (I’m sure I’m not the only fan spreading the word), 3) From everything I’ve read and heard the international interest and success is promising finacially. (With Jay/Vincent being popular in New Zealand and Australia and Kristin/Cat in Canada.) 4) the online presence of this show is quite big for a small show, it’s potential to grow it there as long as it’s fans stay vocal.

    So, I think BATB will get a second season.

    Go ahead, chew me out. But this is my OPINION. Just like what you post is YOUR opinion. Nobody here has the inside scoop, this is all speculation.

  • Brandy

    I’m posting CW L+7
    VD 2.0
    Arrow 1.4
    SPN 1.3
    HoD 0.9
    BatB 0.8
    90210 0.5
    CD 0.6

  • Brandy

    Nikita 0.5

  • Melanie

    @Brandy This week is one of the few where most of the CW shows have been on the list.
    Going all the way back to the beginning of the season:
    BATB has only been on the LSD+7 list twice: it ended up with 0.8 both times.
    TCD has been on the list three times and gotten 0.7,0.7 & 0.6 for LSD+7.
    Nikita has been on the list four times and gotten 0.6, 0.6, 0.6 & 0.5 for LSD+7.
    HOD has been on the list seven times and gotten 0.9, 0.9, 0.9, 0.9, 0.9, 0.9, & 0.8 for LSD+7.

    HOD is VERY stable.

  • June

    Ouch another 0.3 for Nikita. Nikita is lucky that most of the new shows this season aren’t doing so well.

  • halloween

    move Nikita back on bubble…its a tossup now…even though whatever they replace it with won’t do better…CW probably giveback Fridays soon

  • WB

    The CW needs to take into consideration to expand its schedule, programming on both Sundays and Saturdays like a Major Network should!

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Charmed: “A .5 now was like a .9 years ago.”

    No, it’s not. Not when Arrow, a new show, can hit .9 and higher. .5 is only good for a second season show with good syndication potential. A first season show CANNOT survive with a .5 rating because in a second season it will be doing .2-.3. A show HAS to do reasonably well in seasons one and two to have a shot at season three. No studio is giving its shows away for four seasons – they have to make money in the first two to see if the show is viable for subsidizing for syndication.

    Neither TCD nor BATB qualify. TCD fails now, BATB will probably fall before it ends this season. Now, I COULD be wrong about BATB falling. But I don’t think so.

    Halloween: No, it’s not a bubble show. It’s a lock for syndication even if the ratings hit 0.0.

    WB: They need MONEY to do that. Without higher investment from WB and CBS, they aren’t going to expand anywhere.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Danielle: “1) BATB repeats have held an higher percentage of viewers than other CW shows which to me says it has a solid die-hard fanbase,”

    Fan bases are usually a smaller percentage of a show’s audience than what I call the “general audience” – people who are not “fans” but watch the show regularly or occasionally.

    “2) I only started watching this show 2 weeks before it’s hiatus and already I’m hooked on this show, it’s THAT GOOD!”

    So you’re female and hooked on the love story. No surprise there. Unfortunately the show’s premise is about more than that – and that part sucks. Also the quality of the acting – especially Cat’s sister – could be better. All that said, the show isn’t “horrible” – it’s just not very good based on pace, acting, directing, focus on the premise, and other more or less objective criteria.

    “And because I love it so much I have talked non stop about it the last few weeks and already have a few friends & family hooked and have convinced some coworkers to try watching it too. (I’m sure I’m not the only fan spreading the word),”

    This is the only thing the show has going for it: fan buzz. If anything is going to improve its ratings, it will be Nielsen family members getting attracted to the show by Internet and office “buzz”. Otherwise, fans are irrelevant to a show’s ratings because they usually aren’t the majority of viewers.

    “3) From everything I’ve read and heard the international interest and success is promising finacially.”

    International sales, while they may help a show’s profitability and tip the scales, are usually not that relevant to renewal compared to ad revenue from the local market.

    “4) the online presence of this show is quite big for a small show, it’s potential to grow it there as long as it’s fans stay vocal.”

    The online presence for a show is almost completely irrelevant to its renewal EXCEPT to the degree that it improves a show’s “buzz”, thus potentially attracting Nielsen family viewers.

    “Nobody here has the inside scoop, this is all speculation.”

    While generally true, again, the issue is HISTORY. We have history on which shows don’t get renewed based on ratings. We can project from that history that BATB is “on the bubble” at best.

    We can also project from shows like Ringer that initially did reasonably well and then collapsed in the spring. I think BATB will emulate Ringer more than not. I admit I could be wrong about that. But we’ll see.

    The problem is that even if BATB holds its current .65 season average, which I doubt, in a second season it’s very likely to do significantly worse. Shows rarely increase season to season. So BATB would be looking a .4-.5 average at BEST next season. That was enough to get Nikita renewed for a season three, but it might not be enough for BATB.

    BATB will have to be moved from its current time slot because it’s almost certain The Originals will take that slot since it’s the only way to make Thursday work for the CW. So BATB will not have the advantage, however small it has helped this season, of the TVD lead-in. Which means it will do WORSE than its current season average, over and above its probable season to season drop. Especially if it’s moved to Friday. Which means it will be looking at a season average of .3-.4 – not enough for a third season renewal.

    And the CW can make those same calculations. Given they canceled TSC last year with MUCH better ratings than BATB at this point in the same time slot, I can’t see them renewing BATB this season, even with lowered ratings expectations in general.

  • madeleine Boleslawski

    I think that Beauty and the Beast should follow Arrow, and put Supernatural after TVD. TCD is definitely another “Teen” show, and should be cancelled. BATB has so much potential.

  • Danielle

    @ madeleine Boleslawski….. I agree about BATB following Arrow. They kind of compliment each other.

  • Melanie

    How do you figure that Arrow & BATB compliment each other? Arrow is aimed at guys — action with little to no romance (like SPN) and BATB is clearly a romance with a little action/procedural – much more closely aligned with the romance aspect of TVD.
    I honestly don’t think the CW is going to break up its Wed night — they finally have a night that is working for them — they’re not going to mess with it. Arrow & SPN – there are two shows that compliment each other.

  • Dominikkk

    I actually LOVE Emily Owens M.D. And 90210. The only reason I watch that channel is for 90210, hart of Dixie, Emily Owens and beauty and the beast. Ill be so mad if they get cancelled

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