CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • I Love TV!

    The CW should end schedulling Friday Nights and bring back Sunday night programming. I really can’t see anything work-out on Friday… With that said, The CW should really only stick up with Arrow, Supernatural and The Vampire Diaries and cancel the other pathetic shows… Oh and a note for The CW, even Women 18-34 don’t watch crappy teen shows

  • gerry

    cw cannot afford to cancel all bubble shows because it can’t afford to properly promote 5-6 new shows which means they’d end up with a bunch more shows pulling 0.3-.06.

    Dan has it right. batb might skew slightly more toward where cw wants to go, but its ratings don’t reflect it, and they need a mix of programming. tcd does well enough in its timeslot and hod devotees will follow it to monday. i think batb is gone. sorry, beasties.

  • AngieRedding

    Yes USA viewing figures do count, but it’s not just about that anymore. BATB as a HUGE international fan base and article was printed today to say that BATB as become a cash cow for the CW – see quote from article ”I’ve now heard from a source who tells me that Beauty and the Beast has become something of a cash cow for the studio (a key example of which is the series landing a three season licensing deal with a UK broadcaster) and that they believe the series will be back next season ” – so you see MONEY TALKS! They may not be getting as much from advertising revenue from USA live views of the show but they are getting revenue from BATB elsewhere and that’s what matters to the network.

  • MichaelChickless

    @GreatBoy

    Renewed:

    * Hart Of Dixie
    * The Carrie Diaries
    * Nikita (Final Season)

    Cancelled:

    * Cult
    * Beauty and the Beast

    I agree! That’s exactly how I see it shaking out.

    [I don’t watch any shows on The CW. I don’t have a horse in this race.]

  • Ines

    Beauty and the flop should be cancelled and The Carrie Diaries renewed. Same numbers but tcd can stand on its own while batb will flop lower if moved, which will be for the originals to take the spot, hence natb canled

  • Ines

    batb cancelled*

  • Ines

    Lmao @ batb fans with their desperation and lies. Im yet to see a hige fanbase, all i see is a bunch of annoying fangirls in denial that the show is a complete fail plummeting in ratings. We’ll see what u say when batn faklls to threes and fors.

  • Brandy

    @Angie , where is that article?

  • Davis

    This is just boring now, and to be honest seems like you’re being lazy Bill.

    How can you still have HART OF DIXIE on the chopping block as a neck-and-neck race with those other shows? It’s the clear front runner. At least shake something up by moving it to “Likely” to be renewed. Or bump CARRIE DIARIES down to likely to be canceled. The only one that should REALLY have 3 smiley faces in the dead middle is BATB.

  • Dan

    @Gerry – Thank you, you’re right, The CW cant cancel all bubble shows, its great they got 3 well performing shows this season, but they need to keep more to balance the schedule. Hart of Dixie & Nikita fulfill those shows because of syndication and the fact that both are steady, and The Carrie Diaries is doing well for mondays. It seems unlikely that The CW would cancel 4/5 dramas unless 4 out of those 5 were all flops. Arrow is a hit, Emily Owens and Cult are flops. Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries arent flops but bubble shows. The Carrie Diaries works better on mondays then BATB does on Thursdays therefore TCD has the edge.

  • Rachel

    Lol @ TCD fans acting like that show deserves to be renewed move-so than B&tB when it is consistently pulling .4/.5. You wanna know why the CW aired TCD as a starter show? Because they thought it would be the next Gossip Girl and it has failed to deliver. The CW can not be happy with this performance. If anything both shows will get the boot and they will start with a clean slate next year.

  • _JC

    The CW is a ratings disaster (and probably a money pit…they can’t be profitable, can they?), but I dont think they’re desperate enough to put a scheduled repeat in their fall primetime lineup. I know they’re doing it now, but that’s out of necessity; 2012-13 is a lost cause. But next season? I have to believe they’ll roll the dice with original programming, even on a Friday, rather than just wave the white flag. (I’m not just saying this becasue I’m a Nikita fan :D )

  • CoolRanchDoritos

    Don’t care what gets canceled as long as its not Nikita (looking good for now) or HoD.

    If Matt Davis wasn’t the star of Cult i’d totally watch for Jessica Lucas.

  • Dan

    @MichaelChickless – I agree with you as well and I personally don’t watch any CW shows but I follow the ratings and understand CW’s pattern. Them cancelling 90210 I understand because the ratings are crap but for those who say The CW will axe Carrie Diaries along with Beauty and the Beast are crazy. 1 of the 2 will be cancelled and my money is on BATB getting the axe.

  • Rachel

    @Dan

    How are we crazy? Networks have axed the entirety of their freshman series before. What’s the point of renewing TCD when it’s just gonna be cancelled next year anyway…

  • Bob

    I only watched 90210 on CW so I guess everything else doesn’t matter. I wish they at least had 2 additional episodes to the season to wrap things up. Oh well. Best of Luck to CW and 90210.

  • Michael

    Does anyone think with 90210 ending, Emily MD canceled, Gossip Girl is done that CW will be content with its current line up and renew everything else?

  • Dan

    @Rachel – How can The CW expect The Carrie Diaries to be big when 90210 and Gossip Girl were both flopping on Mondays. Thats like ABC thinking anything would work Thursdays at 8 or CBS for Fridays at 8. I know The CW expected TCD to be big but on a night where no one watches CW, they couldn’t have been serious with their expectations. The Carrie Diaries does consistent for the night but if Beaty and the Beast cant take advantage of its VD lead in and perform about the same or worse then a lot of CW’s other series then its gone. Beauty and the Beast is this seasons Secret Circle and TSC did better.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “This is just boring now, and to be honest seems like you’re being lazy Bill.

    How can you still have HART OF DIXIE on the chopping block as a neck-and-neck race with those other shows? It’s the clear front runner. At least shake something up by moving it to “Likely” to be renewed. Or bump CARRIE DIARIES down to likely to be canceled. The only one that should REALLY have 3 smiley faces in the dead middle is BATB.”

    One man’s lazy is another man’s stretching things out for another 8 weeks.

    Unless HOD ratings dive this week, I’ll move it to “likely renewed” next week.

    As for Carrie Diaries vs. BATB, with both still hitting 0.5 ratings more often than not, the jury’s still out as far as I’m concerned.

  • starship

    I’m watching all the CW shows this season and just based on the ratings I’m positive Cult is getting the boot and Nikita + Hart of Dixie are getting renewed. Beauty and the Beast is likely to be renewed but can just as easily be cancelled if the ratings fall drastically or all the pilots turn out amazing (very unlikely). The Carrie Diaries is getting cancelled unless the CW cannot afford to launch more than 3 new series in the Fall and desperately want something that’s not unscripted. Obviously, even if TCD gets a miraculous renewal it will be a a 10-13 episodes and cancelled type of deal, nothing more, just a schedule filler, anyone who believes otherwise is seriously deluded.

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