CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

-
With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dan

    I agree with Bill, as far as ratings are concerned, Hart of Dixzie is bubble. However given other factors like syndication, and CW needing a steady performer, the show is a guaranteed lock for a third and fourth season. CW has never cancelled a show after 2 or 3 full seasons and if axed, Hart of Dixie would be the first. It is getting renewed however but lets hope ratings go up to accommodate my certainty.

  • Jonay

    Why would The CW cancel shows that they do not need to? it sounds stupid maybe The cancellation bear needs to check his medication.

  • Dan

    @Rachel – Other networks have axed their entire lineup. But The CW is nothing like other networks. If this were FOX or ABC I would say its possible they would axe all of their bubble shows, however CW operates at a very different dynamic then the big 4 networks. That’s not to say that they wont cancel low rated shows, but because they only program 10 hours and not too many midseason replacements, its more likely that they will keep 1 of the 2 bubble freshman dramas.

  • Glue

    TCD Should get renewed. It’s getting the ratings HoD got last year. (Around the same number.)

  • rose

    HoD AND CULT CERTAIN CANCEL, TCD and BATB CERTAIN RENEWAL

  • Charmed

    @Rose HOD will be renewed, BATB will be cancelled.

  • Rachel

    @Dan

    GG & 90210 only have themselves to blame for that performance. Both turned to crap and were way past their prime. The downfall of those shows had been brewing over the years. They didn’t flop because of their timeslot. They flopped because people were over it.

    I find it funny people are complaining about Monday nights being a tough timeslot for the CW, when ABC Family(a cable network that appeals to the same demographic) has no problem pulling 0.8’s in that slot. Maybe if the CW produced better programming, people would watch it on Monday nights.

    As for B&tB, I honestly don’t care about its retention. Clearly people aren’t interested in that show, it’s been what? 16 episodes so far. They’re not interested in TCD either because the network aired several repeats of the pilot, even airing it after TVD one time and it didn’t help. TCD certainly hasn’t flopped due to lack of promotion.

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    @Charmed

    Fan Excuse Bingo in full effect people!!

    That being said, I see Hart of Dixie with the most likely chance of renewal, and the battle be between BATB and TCD. TCD has a stronger chance though, because I doubt the CW would want to air 2 new dramas in one night, no matter how low TCD leadin would be. If the Selection gets picked up… bye bye BATB.

  • Z

    Monday
    New Show
    Heart of Dixie

    Tuesday
    New Show
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Nikita

    Thursday
    Vampire Diaries
    New Show

    Friday
    Reruns or movie night.

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    Also fans of BATB need to be reminded that TSC had a better retention rate than this show, and look where that went.

  • MichaelChickless

    @Rachel “TCD fans acting like that show deserves to be renewed”

    I’m not a fan of the show, nor do I watch anything on The CW, but I still see TCD as having a leg up on BatB right now.

  • Dunkidd

    @Jonny C…. formerly Jon
    The CW don’t have to air 2 new dramas in one night at all, that’s a stupid argument. Hart of Dixie will be moving back to its Monday at 9 slot next season and Supernatural will likely got to Tuesdays at 9. Meaning there’ll be at least one returning show on every night.
    This could very easily turn out to be the CW Fall 13/14 schedule:
    Mondays: Blink/Hart of Dixie
    Tuesdays: The Originals/Supernatural
    Wednesdays: Arrow/The Tomorrow People
    Thursdays: The Vampire Diaries/The Selection
    Fridays: Nikita/Beauty and the Beast

    with one or more out of Oxygen, The Hundred, and Reign being kept for mid-season. The other pilot is too terrible of a concept to ever make it (at least on the CW).

  • Dan

    @Rachel – Some networks have problems on different nights, maybe that CW demographic is flocking to ABC Family but whatever the case for CW its better to keep TCD for mondays then start completely fresh for mondays next season.

    The Carrie Diaries did have a lot of promotion but that went nowhere. In terms of Mondays now that 90210 is gone, its better for the CW at least for the fall to have similarly themed The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie together while trying out new shows Tues-Thurs. If those Tues-Thurs shows do well then CW can cancel The Carrie Diaries. It seems like a Life Unexpected situation all over again. While Hart of Dixie is a given renewal, I still don;t think CW will cancel BOTH HOD and BATB.

    @Z – The CW isn’t wasting its precious Arrow lead in on Nikita, Nikita is a nice 22 episode Friday series.

  • Brandy

    Here’s what I think the schedule will be:
    Mon. HoD. Blink/Company Town/reign
    Tues. New show. SPN
    We’d. arrow. New show
    Thurs. VD. Originals
    Fri. Nikita. repeats/cheap reality show/cheap imported filler show/maybe BaTB
    Personally, honestly, I think both CD and BaTB will be cancelled, though I like both shows.
    @Z, Nikita will never leave Fri.

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    @ Jonay,

    Because saved for Arrow, supernatural, and TVD….it’s whole lineup is doing terrible. It’s most likely that they would want to premiere 4 new shows ( just like this year)next year. If that’s the case, other than the obvious Cult, somebody’s gotta go. And if yous don’t believe that, you’re delusional.

  • Z

    I just think that they should just completly get rid of Friday. And doing that just forces Nikita off it. If it were to stay then yes obviously Nikita won’t leave it.

  • Rachel

    @Dan

    The CW doesn’t have to start fresh on Mondays. I’d personally move HOD to Mondays and launch a new series there but hey, if the CW wants to take a gamble with TCD then so be it. I don’t think it’ll pay off but the CW has made crap decisions in the past. A lot of this is gonna depend on how good the new pilots are as well.

  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    @Dunkidd,

    I’ll agree with Hart of Dixie getting it’s original spot back, But moving Supernatural would be stupid on Cw’s spot. The have nice lineup with the Arrow/Supernatural combo. Why would they want to mess that up? That would leav tuesdays open, us they have ANTM like Bill suggested. JUst saying despite it’s terrible ratings, TCD has a better chance than BATB. And I was just reminded of the Originals….BATB is definitely a goner if that gets picked.

  • Ralphie

    Bring back Ringer! I think it would slay!

  • herpderp

    HoD and BATB will be renewed. TCD will be canceled.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures