CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Jonny C…. formerly Jon

    unless*…damn we need a edit button bad.

  • halloween

    Bring back H8R and The Beautiful Life: TBL!

  • Dan W

    I think if any of Hart of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries, and Beauty and the Beast are going to be canceled, it will definitel be Beauty and the Beast. TCD is getting virtually the same ratings and it not only does not have a lead in, it does not have the top performing show as a lead in like BATB does. I watch all three shows, but I think BATB is most likely to be canceled. I wish I could say Nikita, but sadly we all know that isn’t going to happen. Hart of Dixie isn’t going anywhere, I think that’s certain. I think it’s more likely that HOD and TCD will be paired together on Monday nights rather than BATB getting renewed and shipped off to Friday’s. I think they need a few shows that are of a non-action/horror/sci-fi variety on their schedule for next year.

  • KT

    Every week someone says to move HoD to Fridays next season if it gets renewed, and every week I say, if they are going to renew my beloved HoD and move it to Friday nights, I’d rather just have them cancel it outright.

    I don’t watch any shows on TV on Friday nights, and that’s not about to change, even if HoD is moved there.

  • Brandy

    @johnny ,yes Arrow/SpN do well but CW needs to and probably will use Arrow as a leadin for a new show to try to make another hit(which cw desperately needs) & they could also spread out the good ratings of Arrow/VD/SPN through the week to help other shows.
    @Hallowwen I liked The Beautiful Life too, but it or h8 tr aren’t coming back
    @Dan, CW will not renew a freshman getting 0.4s-it’s had too and could be adjusted down later

  • Renee

    @Angellica .T.

    Sweetie Secret Circle is dead. You would be better off buying the season 1 DVD’s and watching it over and over again than keep posting about it being renewed. Really. There is a better chance of Mash being renewed than Secret Circle. And some of the Mash cast is dead.

    I’m not trying to be mean to you, but it’s gone. Asking for it to be renewed over and over again is just sad. As in it makes you look pathetic.

  • starship

    @Brandy

    Exactly, people on here fail to realize that TCD has already fallen to a 0.4 and despite its minor and not final rise this week, it’s only had 13 episodes, i.e. zero syndication potential in the next 3 years and is ending in April, proof that the CW have zero interest in it any more. They promoted it like crazy and it bombed. If Dawn Ostroff was still in charge, it would have probably gotten a second season because of the whole ‘they need none-supernatural/scy-fy shows’ argument, but Mark Pedowitz is smart enough to see that this is the only moderately successful genre for them atm. The only truly bubble show at this point is Beauty and the Beast.

  • Jamie

    @AngellicaT

    Erm, if you was a real Secret Circle fan you’d know the cast are mostly in new projects. They can just break their contract and return to The CW.

  • Jamie

    ***can’t

    Damn iPhone.

  • Lmw931

    My predictions are that BATB will be renewed, HOD will be renewed and TCD will be cancelled
    I watch TCD and think it’s an ok show, but I think the CW will go for BATB over TCD. However they may not because BATB has TVD as a lead in which is the CW’s highest rated show, yet it still under performs, whereas TCD has no lead in, so unless BATB has loyal fans the ratings will drop in the fall because it will not be paired with TVD.
    But who knows…
    None of the 3 shows are brilliant and will most likely be gone in the next year or two.

  • Freyja

    In non rabid fan way, looking at ratings alone.

    I think B&TB will get picked over TCD, and I don’t like either show..

    However; both should still be canceled and the CW should start over..

    Their pilots look like crap this year, I have no desire to see any of them, so we will see how they fair..

  • Guest

    CW cancel all four! Cult, HOD,B&TB and TCD… All four have to go! What are you thinking giving Nikita another season?!?! Cancel that crap too.

    Start Fresh…

  • Kavyn

    I still think both BATB and TCD will be cancelled. If not, then BTB will be renewed and put at 9pm after Nikita, but I don’t see the point since BTB will plummet even lower.

    I’m expecting 5 renewals (TVD, SPN, Arrow, Nikita, HOD), with 4-5 slots dedicated to new shows and Friday at 9pm either for repeats behind Nikita, or changing Friday to a HOD/TCD night if TCD is renewed instead (moving Nikita to Tuesday at 9pm since it’s a death slot for new shows on the CW anyways).

  • Kavyn

    My apologies, the above post kept in mind that Cult would already be cancelled.

  • Dan

    @Kavyn – Cult pretty much is already cancelled and why does everyone think CW will move Nikita to Tuesday? Nikita is reserved for Fridays for its fourth and likely final season while CW tries to launch new shows Tues-Thurs.

  • gerry

    @ Rachel, alot of it depends on the fact that CW is a fledgling network that doesn’t have the financial capacity to properly promote copious new series. which is why, if anything, they’ll run tcd at least through the fall, cancel if it underperforms and promote 2-3 new shows again in the spring.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Nothing has changed from last week.

    The Carried Diaries season average as of last week was .51. This week it got a .3, down 25% from last week’s .4. And it’s not “13 episodes in”, it’s EIGHT episodes in with this horrible rating. It’s doomed. Totally. Period. End of story.

    Beauty and the Beast had a .65 season average as of February 21. It got a .5 in the demo even with its previous episode. It is 14 episodes in to its first season. Clearly it has a far better shot at renewal than The Carrie Diaries.

    The advantage it has is the alleged 1.5 million per episode earned in international sales. Also, the show has twice been given either additional scripts or a full 22 episode order, indicating the CW thinks the show has potential.

    It also has the advantage of being adored by a lot of female fans who are enamored with the love story.

    The disadvantage it has is that it’s CRAP. :-) And I submit that is more important for the general audience than the fans who like the love story.

    So I predict the ratings will collapse just as they did for Ringer and TSC over the next eight episodes. I predict it will be doing .3-.4 before it ends its run and will be canceled. If it DOES get renewed, it will moved to Fridays where it will do worse than Nikita, averaging .3-.4 at best. Only the alleged international sales revenue might have a shot at offsetting those ratings. In any event, it won’t get a season three at those ratings and will not be syndicated.

    Hart of Dixie has a .56 season average as of February 26. It is VERY stable, fluctuating between .5 and .6 for most of the season. It is in its second season, 16 episodes in.

    Because HoD is stable and is in its second season, there is every reason for its studio to offer the show to the CW at a price that will get it two more seasons for syndication purposes, like Nikita (although without Nikita’s star power in Asia.)

    I predict if ANY of the LOW-rated shows on the CW gets renewed, it will be HoD. But it will depend on the studio seeing syndication potential in it. If I was the CW, I would cancel it, but that’s me.

    Nikita of course is a lock for season four even if it hits 0.0 in the ratings. Suck it, haters!

    I do think the CW WILL cancel more than one more show. I think those shows will be TCD and BATB. TCD is near certainty, BATB will only survive if its ratings stay where they are right now – which I find doubtful.

  • Dan

    @Gerry – Right again, its easier for CW to keep TCD for fall and then replace it midseason with a new series thereby having 3 dramas for the fall and 1 or 2 for spring. Like NBC, CW is testing the waters with their returning shows, if they perform well, they will be kept, if not then they are gone.

  • Charmed

    @RSH TCD got a 0.5 this week, not 0.3.

  • Dan

    @Richard Steven Hack – BATB’s advantages were the same as The Secret Circle’s and look what happened there. The fact is BATB cant hold on to a good VD audience so if it moves anywhere else its even more likely to be dumped. The Carrie diaries hit a .5 this week, if it stabilizes for its remaining few episodes then its a keeper. CW needs some returning shows and with Nikita and Hart of Dixie shoe-ins, they can afford to keep Carrie Diaries.

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