CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan W: “TCD is getting virtually the same ratings and it not only does not have a lead in, it does not have the top performing show as a lead in like BATB does.”

    BS.

    TCD Ratings for EIGHT episodes:

    Episode 01-08: Monday, 03/04/13; 0.3 in the demo (-25% change)
    Episode 01-07: Monday, 02/25/13: 0.4
    Episode 01-06: Monday, 02/18/13: 0.4
    Episode 01-05: Monday, 02/11/13: 0.5
    Episode 01-04: Monday, 02/04/13: 0.7
    Episode 01-03: Monday, 01/28/13: 0.5
    Episode 01-02: Monday, 01/21/13: 0.5
    Episode 01-01: Monday, 01/14/13: 0.6

    BATB Ratings for 14 episodes:

    Episode 01-14: Thursday, 02/21/13: 0.5
    Episode 01-13: Thursday, 02/14/13: 0.5
    Episode 01-12: Thursday, 02/07/13: 0.6
    Episode 01-11: Thursday, 01/31/13: 0.7
    Episode 01-10: Thursday, 01/24/13: 0.7
    Episode 01-09: Thursday, 12/13/12: 0.6
    Episode 01-08: Thursday, 12/06/12: 0.5
    Episode 01-07: Thursday, 11/29/12: 0.6
    Episode 01-06: Thursday, 11/15/12: 0.6
    Episode 01-05: Thursday, 11/08/12: 0.7
    Episode 01-04: Thursday, 11/01/12: 0.6
    Episode 01-03: Thursday, 10/25/12: 0.6
    Episode 01-02: Thursday, 10/18/12: 0.7
    Episode 01-01: Thursday, 10/10/12: 1.2

    How do you even REMOTELY compare TCD’s highest rating of .7 (with a PREMIERE at .6!) and mix of .3’s. .4’s and .5’s with BATB’s PREMIERE at 1.2 and slew of .6 and .7’s?

    Seriously?

    The lead-in is IRRELEVANT with TCD numbers like that. Maybe BATB is not holding on to TVD’s numbers but that is no surprise to anyone. It’s STILL doing better where it is than TCD by a large margin.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Charmed: “@RSH TCD got a 0.5 this week, not 0.3.”

    OK, the site I’m looking at has the fast affiliate numbers. There was some error there as well, right? So I stand corrected.

    TCD is up this week. Numbers STILL suck for the season.

  • Walter

    I think that because they can’t afford to launch six new dramas, that they will renew Hart of Dixie and Beauty and the Beast (which will be moved to Friday) so that they can pick up five new shows (three of which will probably be Tomorrow People, Company Town, and the Originals).

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan: “BATB’s advantages were the same as The Secret Circle’s and look what happened there.”

    I didn’t say anything about that. I don’t expect BATB to survive. Nonetheless it still has advantages and its ratings have not yet dropped as TSC’s did at the end.

    TSC Ratings:

    Episode 01-22: Thursday, 05/10/12: 0.6
    Season average: 0.78 in the demo with 1.86 million.
    Demo average rank: #3 of 14 TV shows on the network (Fall 2011 – Spring 2012).

    Episode 01-21: Thursday, 05/03/12: 0.5
    Episode 01-20: Thursday, 04/26/12: 0.5
    Episode 01-19: Thursday, 04/19/12: 0.5
    Episode 01-18: Thursday, 03/29/12: 0.6
    Episode 01-17: Thursday, 03/22/12: 0.7
    Episode 01-16: Thursday, 03/15/12: 0.7
    Episode 01-15: Thursday, 02/16/12: 0.7
    Episode 01-14: Thursday, 02/09/12: 0.8
    Episode 01-13: Thursday, 02/02/12: 0.7
    Episode 01-12: Thursday, 01/19/12: 0.7
    Episode 01-11: Thursday, 01/12/12: 0.8
    Episode 01-10: Thursday, 01/05/12: 0.8
    Episode 01-09: Thursday, 11/10/11: 0.8
    Episode 01-08: Thursday, 11/03/11: 0.9
    Episode 01-07: Thursday, 10/27/11: 0.9
    Episode 01-06: Thursday, 10/20/11: 0.9
    Episode 01-05: Thursday, 10/13/11: 0.8
    Episode 01-04: Thursday, 10/06/11: 0.8
    Episode 01-03: Thursday, 09/29/11: The demo rose a bit this week to a 1.0 rating with 2.13 million. That was an increase of 11%. Because the rest of the network’s shows are doing so poorly, Secret Circle is CW’s second-highest rated show.
    Episode 01-02: Thursday, 09/22/11: 0.9
    That represents a loss of a whopping 31%
    Episode 01-01: Thursday, 09/15/11: Secret Circle debuted to a 1.3.
    The series premiere held onto most of the audience from the Vampire Diaries lead-in and didn’t lose many viewers as the hour progressed. Secret Circle was The CW’s best series premiere of the season.

    While TSC did WAY better ratings than either BATB or TCD – or any other show THIS season except Arrow and the top performers, it STILL got canceled!

    To me that indicates the CW was either VERY disappointed in its performance after TVD, OR that the CW would be well advised to kill ALL the low-rated shows this season!

    Certainly I can see why TSC fans are ticked off that crap like TCD and BATB are considered shots at renewal when TSC was doing WAY better than other shows.

    Nonetheless, the show’s trend downward in the spring was unmistakeable. I predict BATB will do the same.

    “The fact is BATB cant hold on to a good VD audience so if it moves anywhere else its even more likely to be dumped.”

    As I said. If renewed it will move to Fridays and do as bad or worse than Nikita.

    “The Carrie diaries hit a .5 this week, if it stabilizes for its remaining few episodes”

    It’s NOT GOING TO STABILIZE! It is only in its eight episode! The spring effect has yet to hit! It’s going to go down to .3-.4 at best within the next few episodes. You are delusional if you think a show with this level of CRAP ratings within eight episodes in its first season is going to “stabilize” at an EQUALLY CRAP .5!

    “CW needs some returning shows”

    I told you BEFORE that they only want returning shows that MAKE MONEY.

    “they can afford to keep Carrie Diaries”

    No, they can not.

    You’re delusional. TCD is finished. Done for. Stick a fork in it. Hasta la vista, baby!

  • Dan

    @Walter – No, CW can afford those shows, just not 4 new dramas in the fall. Which is why they need a bubble show as a bridge until midseason like how they had Gossip Girl as a bridge this season. 90210 would have been the bridge but its cancelled. With VD, SPN, Arrow, HOD, & Nikita all returning for full seasons, who’s to say CW wouldn’t bring back a bubble show for at least 13 eps to test it out.

    @Richard Steven Hack – Numbers suck for the season for TCD but they’ve stablized at an OK 0.5. Any other network I’d believe would dump a show that didnt do great relative to those standards because other networks schedule more shows in the fall. The numbers for TCD have stabilized providing that they don’t get adjusted down and if they stay at 0.5 until its season finale, CW will probably bring it back. Financially it would make more sense to renew a show that does OK for the night rather than take a gamble that a new show will do better. My belief is that CW will air Supernatural (Tues), Arrow (Wed) and Vampire Diaries (Thurs) all paired with new dramas, since its likely there will be 3 new dramas Tues-Thurs, it makes sense to have 2 returning shows paired on the same night.

  • Anyanka

    I have to agree with Richard. I don’t see why the CW would renew TCD, especially for only the fall, when they can try something new that would probably do better. It’s not like a show can do all that much worse than TCD is doing now. I’m not trying to pick on TCD, I just don’t see it getting renewed since it is already performing poorly and is nowhere near syndication.

    And midseason shows haven’t been very successful lately, with The Following being the only exception. Cult, The Carrie Diaries, Zero Hour, Red Widow, Deception, Do No Harm, 1600 Penn, and Golden Boy all more or less flopped while Body of Proof, Touch, Smash, and Community returned with weak ratings. I imagine the CW would rather launch an extra new show in the fall than content themselves with TCD for the fall and try again in the spring.

  • Janice

    IMO all the suppositions don’t make any sense before knowing how new season pilots will do. We’re talking about a 0,1 rating difference among a pile of crappy ratings! The fate of these shows will ultimately depend on how good/inexpensive etc the pilots for newt season are. Period.
    If I had to guess though: HOD renewed, TCD canceled (it’s the only show that got dumped before may sweeps, I mean c’mon) BATB renewed only if they decide to put new scripted on friday after nikita (there’s absolutely no chance they’ll renew it to be placed in another night with this TVD retention, it would totally sink)

  • Rachel

    I agree with Richard as well.

  • Brandy

    @Dan, CD has gottten two 0.4s and might be adjusted down that’s bad and CW has NeVER renewed a freshman show with that rating before.CW is moving away from teen dramas/soaps.They can easily pair HoD with Blink,Company Town or Reign,it dosent HAVE to be CD.Also, CW has Had five new shows the last two seasons
    2011-2012:Ringer,SC,HoD,Remodeled,H8tr
    2012-2013::Arrow, Cult, Carrie Diaries, Beauty & the Beast,Emily Owens MD
    So you’re expectation of only three new shows ,especially when only one of the new shows has been a true true hit this season and the others rated terribly, is unrealistic.

  • Dan

    @Janice – Carrie Diaries got dumped before May sweeps because it was a midseason show that aired its 13 episode season without repeats straight through.

    @Brandy – They’ve had 5 new shows yes, but never more than 3 new dramas aired in the fall.

    2011-2012 3 dramas in the fall, 0 in the spring
    2012-2013 3 dramas in the fall, 2 in the spring

    I don’t think CW is ready for 4 new dramas airing this fall across 4 nights (Assuming HOD airs Monday, SPN airs Tuesday and Arrow and VD stay in their slots)I think CW has moved away from airing reality shows once Oh Sit and that other one is done.

    My expectation was never just 3 new shows overall, but 3 new shows in the fall and 1 or 2 in the spring, that’s more realistic.

  • KS

    Cancellations
    =============
    1.Cult

    Renewals
    ========
    1.The Carrie Diaries
    2.Hart Of Dixie
    3.Nikita

    Yet to be Decided
    =================
    1.Beauty and The Beast

    >>>I think the ratings of 17 – 21 episodes of Beauty and the Beast is what matters the most.
    >>>TCD will be given one more 13 episode order to prove itself.
    >>>Hart Of Dixie and Nikita will be renewed for syndication purposes.
    >>>It would be better, if the network doesn’t push Hart Of Dixie to Friday.

  • Bizarro

    I believe that 3 more shows will be renewed which will be Nikita possibly final season heck 89.9% final season and HOD which will be the likely renewal next season. Beauty and Carrie are on the bubble and it will be a tough decision for the CW but if Beauty continues being stable and does not go under a .5 and gets higher for few eps. It will get renewed and moved to fridays with Nikita. Which are a great pairing to be honest. I will watch more of Nikita next season because of it. Hart will stay on tuesdays or mondays, Hart is doing very well with all the competition it has. TCD has not stabilized like the other shows and it only has five more eps before it ends in April. If it gets more .4’s or lower the CW will give it the Ringer cancellation. The CW will launch four new shows in the fall which is a ton and this is not good since usually only one new show does good. I mean one freshman renewal for the last few years is just plan pathetic. So Beauty does have the best chance right now for the pity renewal, since its cheaper to make (which will be good since the CW will probably premiere four new shows), fits with Nikita, does good internationally, an non freshman show will move to friday. Nine hours of programming is just out of the question, thats just straight up pathetic. Also, CW could also have internationaly good fridays!

  • Janice

    @Dan
    CW did the same thing with Ringer last year (it finished its run in april) and look how well that turned out
    I actually wish they’d renew TCD over BATB but at this point I find it very unlikely

  • Dan W

    @Richard Steven Hack-I was comparing recent numbers, not BATB’s whole season. What it got in the fall is irrelevant to it’s chances of renewal. You’re acting like the 1.2 meant something…if that were the case, Ringer would have been renewed as well. Frankly I don’t see much difference between BATB getting a 0.5 and TCD getting a 0.4 in the same week. BATB had a huge lead in and it could only muster one more tenth of a point than TCD with no lead in? You obviously missed that point of my post entirely. I was merely pointing out that BATB is terrible at retaining it’s lead in numbers while TCD either gets the same rating or a little less with no lead in at all.

  • Brandy

    @Dan you’re right, not 4 dramas in the fall but last season CW premiered four shows in fall:Ringer,SC,HoD,h8tr so they could launch four new dramas next fall.

  • Charmed

    I agree with Dan.

  • Jane

    TCD will most likely be cancelled.

    TCD Should get renewed. It’s getting the ratings HoD got last year. (Around the same number.)

    Not really. HOD didn’t get 0.4s.

  • Dave

    Didn’t Hart of Dixie score a 0.4 for its second episode this Season in the Fall?

  • Dan

    @Brandy – If CW were to premiere 4 new shows total, 3 dramas and 1 reality then maybe, but I don’t see any reality series in CW’s future at least not outide of Summer or a midseason repalcement. I just think its more likely that CW has more returning dramas (6) then equal to the amount of hours they broadcast. Meaning its not likely CW just has 5 returning dramas, and then 5 free slots during the fall. Maybe when ANTM was airing but with no ANTM, then CW has room for 6 returning dramas, 3 new dramas, and 1 free slot on fridays.

    @Dan W -I agree BATB cant hold a lead in so imagine how badly it will do on its own (Which is why CW should have moved it to Emily Owens old slot this season instead of Cult) This gives The Carrie Diaries the edge over BATB plus CW has Thursdays figured out, VD at 8 and Originals at 9. Mondays is a different story but 2 returning dramas would work well there, Hart of Dixie and The Carrie Diaries. HOD worked better last season on Mondays and TCD seems more like a 9:00 series anyway.

  • Anyanka

    @Dave – No, it never dipped below 0.5

    Hart of Dixie Season 2:
    2×1: 0.7
    2×2: 0.5
    2×3: 0.6
    2×4: 0.5
    2×5: 0.6
    2×6: 0.6
    2×7: 0.5
    2×8: 0.5
    2×9: 0.5
    2×10: 0.6
    2×11: 0.6
    2×12: 0.6
    2×13: 0.5
    2×14: 0.6
    2×15: 0.5
    2×16: 0.6

    The Season 1 high was 0.9 and the Season 2 low was 0.5

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