CW: With '90210' Canceled, What Does The CW Race From The Cancellation Bear Look Like Now?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


Bear100

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult :oops: 0.46
90210 canceled 0.51
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries :| :| :| 0.78
Hart Of Dixie :| :| :| 0.86
Beauty And The Beast :| :| :| 0.91
Supernatural renewed 1.41
Arrow renewed 1.54
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the  CW show race with the Cancellation Bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beast and Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Dan

    @Janice – CW rushed ringer to air all of its episodes but Ringer began in the fall TCD premiered in the spring. Meaning for CW and most other networks, midseason shows usually air all episodes repeat free and then finish their season. Examples include Life Unexpected’s first season and One Tree Hill’s final season both of which ran repeat free. However Ringer was rushed to air is full season clearly because CW didn’t want repeats. Basically if a fall drama rushes to air its season then there’s an issue but if a midseason drama airs repeat free that’s expected.

    @KS – I agree with everything you posted except the fact that BATB’s numbers for eps 17-22 matter. I believe if the show spikes to VD levels for those final episodes, only then will it have a chance, which is unrealistic at this point. Most likely the show will just continue its low numbers and get axed in May.

  • Shaz

    Ugh. I posted in this topic several hours ago and it’s still not showing up. Somebody pretty please check the spam filters?

  • Rachel

    TCD won’t do any better airing after HOD though. It’s a waste.

  • Nick

    What the CW should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: America’s Next Top Model/The Selection (new)
    9: Hart of Dixie

    Tue-
    8: The Tomorrow People (new)
    9: Arrow

    Wed-
    8: The Hundred (new)
    9: Supernatural

    Thu-
    8: The Vampire Diaries
    9: The Originals (new) 

    Fri-
    8: Nikita (full final season)
    9: Repeats

  • James

    Monday
    Hart of Dixie
    Blink (new)

    Tuesday
    The Hundred (new)
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    The Tomorrow People (new)

    Thursday
    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals (new)

    Friday
    ANTM/NIKITA
    Repeats

    MIDSEASON:
    ONE of Carrie and Beauty
    Oxygen

  • HandSanitizer

    TCD fans sure are delusional. CW will never renewed any show that got 0.4 in their FIRST season. Put aside whether the show premier in Fall of Spring because its just the same!

  • Bizarro

    What will the CW do with Cult out of the running and now the TCD being stable with .4’s and with B&TB possibly being stable at .5’s. The CW can’t cancel more than two shows this season because five new shows is just too much money for them to handle especially since the CW is very bad with freshman shows.

  • Dan W

    If they are going to cancel The Carrie Diaries for 0.4’s, I say get rid of Beauty and the Beast with their 0.5’s as well. If need be, fill the block with a repeat hour. I think TCD has a better chance of holding on to Hart of Dixie’s numbers then BATB gaining in the demo on Friday nights after Nikita’s pitiful ratings, which I’m sure will drop even lower than a 0.3 if renewed. Unless they decide to air BATB at 8…either way, the show will not make it past a second season, assuming it even gets a full one if renewed.

  • Jared

    If the CW renews Nikita for another season to get it to syndication,would there be any chance they would schedule it 9pm on Fridays and use the 8 pm timeslot for another series such as BATB or Supernatural? If the network is only trying to get Nikita to syndication would the ratings really matter?

  • halloween

    cw can maybe import some more Canadian shows if they want .4 on the schedule…why waste money on new shows

  • Rachel

    Another .4 for TCD so this argument that it deserves renewal over BATB can die now.

  • halloween

    @Rachel BatB gets a .5 out of a 1.3 leadin probably would do worse on its own

  • Jared

    Considering the direction the CW seems to be going in with the pilots they’ve picked up for next season I don’t see why wouldn’t renew BATB. It seems like the perfect show to pair with any of the new pilots(Tomorrow People/Oxygen etc) or at Friday 8pm before Nikita. I dont see The Carrie Diaries being as flexible scheduling wise unless its paired solely with Hart of Dixie.

  • layla

    I like batb its an awesome show I hope it outlasts tcd cuz I can’t stand that show. As for next fall schedule cw would be dumb to move their weds night lineup around or even split them up. If his yrs weds night schedule shows anyrhing it would lrove that they would be wise to put the orgi
    nals after tvd

  • tvlog

    CW created Comedy, drama, reality show and variety show which Europe never seen! Europe wants copy! Do something Asia never seen! South America never seen! Asia and South America want copy! Africa never seen! Africa wants copy! Mexico and Canada never seen! Mexico and Canada want copy! America has no original ideas for reality shows, comedies, dramas, and news magazines! Barack Obama! Tell Hollywood make original shows in America! Too many imports! Dancing with Stars! Survivor from England! Big Brother from Netherlands! The Office from England!

  • Dahne

    Another poster mentioned that BatB had a three season pick up in the UK but didn’t say where. You can find it at tvwise (dot) co (dot) uk. Scroll for Broadcast TV Buzz and then CW. The link to the original article is there. I have no investment in either BatB or TCD but if push comes to shove and they don’t cancel both, this could be a very slight factor.

  • Holly

    Another poster mentioned that BatB had a three season pick up in the UK

    It’s not really a pick-up since the UK can’t renew a show produced in the US. But they did license a third season should it be renewed by the CW.

    However, the fact that CBS and the CW is working to secure international buyers does indicate that they haven’t given up on it yet.

  • Holly

    Ah, read the article more thoroughly. The original agreement from this fall was for 3 years. Nothing was added.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dan: “@Richard Steven Hack – Numbers suck for the season for TCD but they’ve stablized at an OK 0.5.”

    Guess what, dude? Just got adjusted DOWN to a ,4!

    “You’re acting like the 1.2 meant something”

    I merely pointed out that the PREMIERE of BATB was TWICE what the premiere of TCD was. This is not “acting like it meant something.” It DID mean something!

    “I was merely pointing out that BATB is terrible at retaining it’s lead in numbers while TCD either gets the same rating or a little less with no lead in at all.”

    SO WHAT? The ratings are what they are. TCD has been far worse that BATB. And TCD does NOT get the same ratings nor is it a “little less.” .7’s and .6’s are SIGNIFICANTLY better than .4’s and .5’s – even on the CW. Go back and look at that list of ratings. There’s NO WAY they can be compared as similar. No way.

    Look, man, I don’t know WHAT your obsession with TCD is. But it’s DONE FOR.

    ANY show doing its season average in its first season and only eight episodes in is DONE FOR. Period. End of story.

    Give a rest.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    I don’t know whether it’s the site or this damn Firefox browser, but I’ve been trying to submit a new post and all it does it go back to the home page.

    Rebooted Firefox, let’s see if this post goes through.

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