NBC: As NBC Sitcom Ratings Dive, They'll Still Have To Renew Some Of Them

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bear-knife
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :oops: 0.67
The New Normal :oops: 0.77
1600 Penn :oops: 0.80
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.81
Whitney :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception :cry: :cry: 0.91
Community :| :| :| 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
The Office final season 1.40
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

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The expression "Catch A Falling Knife" comes to mind when trying to figure out which of NBC's ratings diving sitcoms might survive the season (besides Parks & Recreation which will certainly be renewed).

If (and I think they will) renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Rec, they'll be choosing among shows that have all hit a 1.1 rating or less this season. Yikes. My best guess at this point is that one or more of Community, Go On and Whitney will be renewed, but that's as close as I'm getting to grabbing at the falling knives at this point.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • PurpleDrazi

    Go On’s survival depends on how much pull Matthew Perry still has. If NBC still believes in him it will stay. If not, I think they keep Whitney.

  • Matt

    Forgive me if I’m wrong here but didn’t TVBTN refute the “they have to renew some things” argument back when Chuck was on the bubble?

  • Ryne

    I don’t watch New Normal but I find it odd that they have a repeat on after a new Go On tonight. Do they have an extra episode not aired or something?

  • Potato

    @Lee– unfortunately, Chase was never the problem. He and Harmon argued over voicemail AND Harmon was fired but the two weren’t connected– they have both said so in interviews. Something along the lines of they don’t hate each other, they’ve just both got stubbornness problems. Harmon was fired mostly for his lateness with scripts and ignoring when NBC said no to his ideas. Although I will give that probably the only reason chase came back this year was knowing he wouldn’t have to work with him…

  • rob60990

    They “have” to renew some of them? Other than Parks, they all should be cancelled if NBC ever wants to be taken seriously again. They can’t launch new comedies by keeping failures.

  • SVU: Fringe Division

    Ryne

    According to my guide it’s the missing Halloween episode that was bumped for Hurricane Sandy coverage. Maybe it’s being coded as a repeat or special so it doesn’t count.

  • Cyrax86

    @Ryne, The tv listings guide is incorrect about The New Normal, it is a new episode, in fact the one that got pre-empted by Hurricane coverage last October.

    But then no new episodes of either comedies till April, next two weeks are repeats and then for March 26th, when The Voice comes back, they are pre-empted for that fashion show by Eva Longoria.

  • Ultima

    My guess is that Parks and Recreation is renewed for a ~13-15 episode final season and moved to Wednesday 8pm with an hour-long P&R finale the first Wednesday of February and something new in the timeslot after the Olympics. All new comedy lineup on Thursdays.

    Additionally, they’ll renew one comedy to pair with P&R, either a ~13 episode final season of Community (which may be cost-effective due to synidcation revenue) or a 13 episode season of Go On with the hopes that there’s still potential there (if so, it can get a back 9).

    If they want a multi-cam comedy block, that can be held for the Wednesday 8pm timeslot after the games so that they can concentrate their summer/fall advertising on the new NBC Thursdays.

  • Ram510

    PLEASE SAVE GUYS WITH KIDS!!!!!!!!

  • MichaelChickless

    Comedies: Cancel The New Normal, 1600 Penn & Up All Night; renew the rest.

    Dramas: Cancel Deception, and renew the rest.

  • MichaelChickless

    Oh, and definitely cancel Smash.

  • Wright

    As long as Grimm and Revolution are renewed that’s all I care about.

  • Dan

    Its possible that all 3 of Whitney, Go On and Community will be renewed. Along with Parks those 3 comedies are the best of the low rated series. My guess is Community may get a fifth and final season while Whitney and Go On are good bets for Wednesdays and Thursdays respectively.

    The New Normal’s prospects could improve when the Voice returns for the last 4 episodes but thats very rare at this point.

  • ToXiX

    Fall 2013

    Wednesday

    7 New Comedy
    730 New Comedy

    Thursday.

    8 Parks & Recreation
    830 New Comedy
    9 Go On
    930 New Comedy
    10 Community
    1030 Whitney

    1600 Penn for midseason replacing Community

  • THE OLD MAN

    1.1 or less & still may be renewed AMAZING

    Kinda like the early 80’s NBC–so retro!

  • Dakota

    I think they will eliminate comedies on Wednesday.

  • Dan

    @Ultima – No, Parks may be here to stay for a while, If they cancel that, and Go On and Community flop next season and all of their comedies flop NBC will have nothing.

  • Jeff R.

    My Guess is that Go On has the best shot at the renewal. Community already has enough to syndicate (that number keeps falling and falling), and a full season for Whitney would mean that next year it’d be knocking on syndication’s door, so renewing it now is almost committing to two seasons at those ratings or worse. [It could get a half-season, I guess.]

    Meanwhile, Go On is pretty much the only NBC comedy that could realistically grow its audience moving forward.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Forgive me if I’m wrong here but didn’t TVBTN refute the “they have to renew some things” argument back when Chuck was on the bubble?”

    Crazy/desperate fans often whine “they can’t cancel everything/they have to renew some things” when grasping at straws about shows that have ratings significantly below the network average.

    What I am referring to is that while the ratings for those three toss up sitcoms are terrible on an absolute basis for big 4 broadcast primetime, they are not terrible for NBC on a relative basis. And therefore, NBC is likely to renew shows that while terribly rated for ABC, Fox and CBS are not terribly rated for them this season.

  • Allen

    I’ll be surprised if Parks and Community aren’t at least renewed for final seasons.

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