NBC: As NBC Sitcom Ratings Dive, They'll Still Have To Renew Some Of Them

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

March 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bear-knife
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013.  (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
Smash :oops: 0.67
The New Normal :oops: 0.77
1600 Penn :oops: 0.80
Guys With Kids :oops: 0.81
Whitney :| :| :| 0.88
Go On :| :| :| 0.90
Deception :cry: :cry: 0.91
Community :| :| :| 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Parenthood* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Parks & Recreation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
The Office final season 1.40
Up All Night :oops: pending
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending
Revolution :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: pending

-

The expression "Catch A Falling Knife" comes to mind when trying to figure out which of NBC's ratings diving sitcoms might survive the season (besides Parks & Recreation which will certainly be renewed).

If (and I think they will) renew more sitcoms than just Parks & Rec, they'll be choosing among shows that have all hit a 1.1 rating or less this season. Yikes. My best guess at this point is that one or more of Community, Go On and Whitney will be renewed, but that's as close as I'm getting to grabbing at the falling knives at this point.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the NBC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Mickey

    Community and Go On are the only two sitcoms I like on NBC, and they’re the top-rated NBC sitcoms, so fingers crossed.

    Go On was brilliantly zany in the beginning, but now there is less crazy and colourful humour, and more sentimentality and seriousness. I think they should try going back to the original tone. The pilot was hilarious.

  • David Howell

    Parks will be renewed.

    Community will be renewed, it has a syndication deal with Comedy Central already and what’s left of its fan base seem to actively enjoy it being against TBBT (their rallying call being “real geeks watch Community”) so it can fill that death zone cheaply. Or could it make a Cougar Town-esque move and air originals on Comedy Central? Do the economics make sense for that?

    Go On might be renewed out of a need to be seen to renew *anything* else.

    Whitney might be renewed out of a need to get *anything* to 88. Although it might do so badly in season 3 that it *still* gets cancelled in 2014!

    The rest are dead shows airing. Or, in the case of UAN, not airing.

    At least one comedy hour will be gone. Five dramas are safe, The Voice occupies three hours, there will surely be at least two new fall dramas… Wednesday’s block can go, I’d be tempted to remove Thursday 9 too but at least that’s up against two dramas and a collapsing dramedy. Unless CBS finally recognise that they’re renewing procedurals with 18-49 numbers 30% below their cancelled sitcoms, and expand their comedy time…

  • Dan S

    I think NBC should go for reality/news magazines on Fridays. Move Grimm to earlier in the week perhaps paired with Crossbones or Dracula. If CBS as expected goes to a 2 hr comedy block on Thur NBC should consider moving The Voice to Wed & Thur. Then they could have just 1 hr of comedy on Thur 9-10pm. They could schedule other comedies on Mon & Tues.

  • Meliwa

    If there is a tossup between Community and Go On, I think Community gets cancelled. Matthew Perry has a bigger Q Rating than the entire cast of Community. But I do agree with Mickey that Go On needs to get back to the bite it had in the beginning. The pilot was actually a good balance between showing the benefits of therapy and lampooning therapy groups in general.

  • Ashley

    @Mickey, I don’t think Community and Go On are the top rated…but both possibly could survive. I think they should renew Parks(maybe final season) and 13 eps each of Go On and Community. Move those to Tues or Wed. Launch all new comedies on Thurs night.

  • cadburyeasteregg

    You can update Deception as canceled. The word is spreading all over Twitter but NBC is being coy. I have no idea who leaked this information.

  • CBSviewer

    What NBC should do:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    9:00 – Parenthood
    10:00 – Revolution

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Whitney
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – Chicago Fire
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Community
    8:30 – Parks & Recreation
    9:00 – Go On
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – Law & Order: SVU

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Dateline
    9:00 – Grimm
    10:00 – Rock Center

  • Joe

    @Happy!

    Whitney on Tuesday is for syndication as well as placing a show that could take viewers away from New Girl…now I could of placed MJF and Sean Hayes on Tuesday but I feel the NCIS duo is formidable, and New Girl skews very young, weds at 8pm has more potential as the 8pm ABC comedies aren’t big competition and Survivor/X-Factor are also soft performers, now Whitney failed there but MJF/Sean Hayes could be game changers…

  • ABC hater

    I’d do it like this:

    Monday

    8 – The Voice
    10 – New drama

    Did great last Fall. Might as well do again.

    Tuesday

    8 – New comedy
    8:30 – The Voice results
    9:30 – New comedy
    10 – Parenthood

    This may sound tricky, but the Voice audience could watch the first comedy while waiting for their show. Also, it would probably grow its numbers and help NBC to win this night too, while providing a better lead-in for the 9:30 comedy and Parenthood, which stays where it currently is to show stability.

    Wednesday

    8 – Revolution
    9 – Their best new drama
    10 – Chicago Fire

    Given that Revolution keeps its ratings at Fall levels, it could anchor a night and would provide a good launching pad for a new heavily promoted genre drama. Chicago Fire is doing good, so it stays put.

    Thursday

    8 – Parks & Recreation
    8:30 – New comedy
    9 – Their best new comedy
    9:30 – New comedy
    10 – SVU

    Arguably their most troubled night, it would need to be majorly promoted to not flop entirely. Risky, but could bring in the new hits they desperately need. If CBS doesn’t expand comedy this night, at least… SVU would help to not let the night flop completely giving not impressive, but at least solid, numbers at 10.

    Friday

    8 – Reality
    9 – Grimm
    10 – Dateline

    Doing. I just wouldn’t mix two newsmagazines and would rather have a cheap reality to begin the night. Grimm is a self-starter as shown previously.

    Saturday

    8 – Revolution (R)
    9 – New Wednesday drama (R)
    10 – Law & Order: SVU (R)

    4.5 hours of new shows to promote surrounded by their strongest offerings as of now. Keep some good shows for midseason as well, as they have the Olympics to promote them.

    Spackle: Community (if Sony is willing to keep it going), Whitney (they own it, don’t they? Better than keep a Warner or a FOX show, I suppose)

  • Bunny

    I love Chicago Fire. Good actors and good storyline.

  • Tony

    Please save GUYS WITH KIDS! It’s probably the funniest show on television.

  • MikeInCanada

    Most commedies are just not funny. Lots of sexual innuendo and poorly behaving people. Where are the newhart’s cosbies of today?

    The only one that I would keep is parks and Recreation.

  • CraveRecords

    NBC has so many holes to fill, they’ll no doubt put The Voice in the fall again. It’s pointless to put fantasy schedules together until you’ve seen pilots, but I agree with most everyone who says comedy needs to move from Thursday. HIMYM ends next year so CBS really needs to find another big comedy for Monday or they’ll be vulnerable. ABC hasnt been able to launch a hit on Wednesday out of Modern Family, Fox hasnt found a new Tuesday hit. NBC shouldn’t be afraid to move their comedies to another night. Parks and Rec and SVU are probably the only shows NBC feels safe moving at this point, but they’re so show poor who knows what they’ll do.

    Fantasy schedules are pointless, but let me know what you think about mine!

    Mon
    2 new comedies
    The Voice (fall) / The Voice results (spring)
    The Voice (fall) / Revolution (spring)

    Tue
    The Voice results (fall) / The Biggest Loser (spring)
    New drama
    Parenthood

    Wed
    Parks and Rec and new comedy
    New comedy and MJF comedy
    Chicago Fire

    Thu
    New drama or reality/game show (fall) / The Biggest Loser (spring)
    SVU
    New drama

    Fri
    Dateline
    Grimm
    USA encores (run seasons 1 & 2 of Suits starting in August, Graceland starting in spring)

    Sat
    4 comedy encores
    SNL encores

    Sun
    Football (fall) / comedy or reality or drama (spring)
    Football (fall) / The Voice (spring)
    Football (fall) / The Voice (spring)
    Football (fall) / New drama (spring)

    Hold for insurance
    Community
    Whitney (ugh)
    Apprentice (double ugh)
    Brian Williams
    More hours of Dateline
    Handful of new dramas and comedies to plug in during the season

  • Jane

    The CW is still far worse.

  • Joel

    Guys with Kids is so much funnier than the other freshmen sitcoms like Go on, TNN. But NBC seems to put more importance on producers or actors like Perry and Murphy. Go on will definitely get another season cause NBC will justify Go on’s ratings after the Voice on March.
    IT is hard to predict TNN’s future which will depend on NBC’s decision of building Multi cam block or continuing single cam shows.
    Guys with Kids is expected to be canceled but it is owned by NBC and If NBC wants to have a multicam block, GWK also has a chance!!

    I’m sure Parks and Rec will be renewed and it will compete against giant sitcoms like TBBT and Two and a half.

    The office ends this season which means NBC has a lot of considerations on sitcom rebuilding.

    I hope NBC changes its focus on Single cam. Just produce more mulit cams!!!

    NEXT season of Thursday at 8:00, Parks and rec followed by Go on against heavy shows..

  • Brian J

    @Greg:

    The goal is for NBC to have one night that it can use as its anchor. If that can’t be Thursday (and it probably can’t be; more on that in a second), why not Tuesdays? The MJF show could probably do fine almost anywhere, but with a hopefully still strong “Voice,” it could be truly dominant. NBC could then use Tuesdays to build up other nights.

  • Chris

    You guys do realize that the Sean Hayes pilot is multi cam right? Isn’t it people that are always saying multi cam doesn’t go with single cam? So why are people making schedules with the two together? MJF pilot will not go with the Sean Hayes pilot.

  • Steve

    The New Normal should move to Bravo where it could more easily reach it’s niche core of viewers. It is a great show but preachy.

    NBC is screwed with even Univision and CW beating them on a regular basis. They need to steal a few pages from the CBS play book when the network was a rock bottom and picked up Jag from NBC. Whatever CBS cancels this year will probably be stronger than the majority of NBC ‘hits’ and might bring viewers over to the network. NBC only needs to build one non-reality winning night to get back into the game.
    I’m starting to think NBC will end up becoming the first post-modern network in that it will basically run like a cable channel. Maybe they should redo sets and bring Days of Our Lives to 10pm Primetime–it would do better than JAY did.

  • Jessica

    The New Normal will probably be given a second chance. Murphy will re-tool it, maybe add someone new to the cast, and that will be it.

  • Elle

    Monday:
    8:00 The Voice
    10:00 Hatfields & McCoys

    Tuesday:
    8:00 The Voice
    9:00 Revolution
    10:00 Bloodline

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 The New Normal
    8:30 Brenda Forever
    9:00 Chicago Fire
    10:00 Parenthood

    Thursday:
    8:00 Craig Robinson Comedy
    8:30 Parks & Recreation
    9:00 Go On
    9:30 Michael J Fox Comedy
    10:00 Law & Order: SVU

    Friday:
    8:00 Dateline
    9:00 Grimm
    10:00 Rock Center

    Midseason: Believe,Ironside,The Gates, About A Boy

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures