Bubble Watch: 'Hart of Dixie' Likely to Be Renewed; 'Beauty and the Beast' and 'The Carrie Diaries' Remain in Doubt

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 10th, 2013

 

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart Of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart Of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty And The Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty And The Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty And The Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixie will be renewed than Hart of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty And The Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.)  I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Cult CW Certain or likely cancellation
Touch Fox Certain or likely cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Certain or likely cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Golden Boy CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Vegas CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Certain or likely cancellation
Deception NBC Certain or likely cancellation
The New Normal NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Smash NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Certain or likely renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Revenge ABC Certain or likely renewal
Suburgatory ABC Certain or likely renewal
Elementary CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hart of Dixie CW Certain or likely renewal
Nikita CW Certain or likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain or likely renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain or likely renewal
Nashville ABC Certain or likely renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain or likely renewal
Scandal ABC Certain or likely renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain or likely renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain or likely renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain or likely renewal
CSI CBS Certain or likely renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain or likely renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain or likely renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain or likely renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain or likely renewal
Glee Fox Certain or likely renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grimm NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain or likely renewal
Revolution NBC Certain or likely renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dani: “it starts a night,”

    Hmmm. First we had a “Dan” arguing for this. Now we have a “Dani” arguing for this. Would it be too much to consider the conspiracy theory of this being the same person?

    No one at the CW is going to care a whit if a show “starts a nigh” if the show DOESN”T MAKE ANY AD REVENUE! TCD is doing CRAP RATINGS. There is NO excuse that overrides that for a show halfway through its first season. NONE.

  • Janus

    Totally agree with Robert on what most likely to happen with the CW–HOD safe and the odds are the other 3 gone with an outside shot that one of BATB or less likely TCD makes it.

    In the end I think it will just be HOD surviving unless the pilots really stink. The CW is in a risk for survival mode–so a cleaning house situation is very likely. Though those who were predicting earlier that HOD would go also were being over the top. I nlike Robert see that as zero chance. Even without HOD, this will be a huge cleaning house…they won’t go that far–they will then keep every show that at least has some positive points AND then will have a lot added at one time. For a ltlle network that will be as radical as they get and as cmuch as they can practically digest in one year.

  • Other Than THAT Mrs. Lincoln How Was The Play

    The series finale of BatB this May should be about the Beauty roasting the Beast on a spit over a roaring wood fire and serving its corpse to her friends. Ok, I have no idea what that show is about about but I do know I hate it since CW hasnt produced a good show since – well, eons ago – in fact I cant say Ive ever like a single CW show enough to care about whether or not it was cancelled or renewed.

  • Other Than THAT Mrs. Lincoln How Was The Play

    Oh wait, wasnt there an old BatB about Sara Conner using a cyborg lion-man to do her bidding by dispatching her enemies after SKY NET sent it back in time to kill her and John but Sara captured it and reprogrammed it?

  • lois

    Like i said Hod needs to be cancelled. Why wait at the last minute and show that she is trying to save someone?Its too late for that. TCD should be renewed and what about nikkita?

  • SecretShame

    I have to admit that the constant drift towards arguments about the relative quality of CW shows is starting to irritate me. It simply does not matter whether BATB has, in your opinion, a more exciting storyline than HOD. Or whether TCD is more fun than BATB. Renewal decisions are not based on the views of amateur drama critics on the internet. They are based on money.

    1) Ratings, 2) Proximity to syndication, 3) Cost to produce. Those are the factors that determine network decisions. There are some other issues that can potentially be minor factors in edge cases, like foreign market income or internet sales, but these are relatively trivial, impossible to judge from the outside, and themselves centrally about money. Whether Kristin Kreuk can act or not simply is not one of those factors. So please, try to avoid arguments for or against renewal that amount to statements of personal taste. The numbers are what matter.

  • laura

    B&B was boing and bad, Kristin K. is not a good actress. cancel B&B!

  • SecretShame

    If we take a look at the five remaining CW shows without a renewal / cancellation announcement:

    Cult is such a ratings disaster that the CW would likely yank it off the schedules immediately if they had anything to replace it with. Nikita has three seasons behind it and so the draw of syndication becomes the overriding factor. The other three are slightly more complex to analyse.

    Hart of Dixie would seem to have the advantage in all three key areas (ratings, proximity to syndication, cost). The first season shows, unsurprisingly, started out with higher ratings but as the season has gone on and those shows have seen a ratings decline, HOD just keeps plodding along getting pretty much exactly the same not terrible but also nothing to boast about numbers throughout its two seasons. It’s halfway to syndication, which doesn’t provide the same level of near immunity to cancellation as three completed seasons do but still matters. And it is likely to be dirt cheap to produce.

    BATB and TCD are in very similar situations to each other. Syndication isn’t a factor. Recent ratings have been poor. Relative cost is hard to determine: Both will be cheap by the standards of any other network, but for that to help out a CW show it would have to be cheap even by CW standards. Of the two, BATB has the ratings edge, so in a straight two way death match it probably wins.

    The problem is that it isn’t quite a straight two way death match. There are also the new pilots and the possibility of unscripted filler to consider. If the CW had the money to make and promote a whole raft of new shows, both BATB and TCD would be as dead as Cult and HOD would be an actual bubble show. But they don’t, and it may be that they simply need to fill an hour with a returning show even though they might prefer not to. There are three already renewed shows. If we assume renewal for Nikita and HOD, and three new shows, that still leaves them with two hours to fill. Those two hours could be filled by just about any combination of an unscripted show, repeats, a fourth new scripted show or a renewal for BATB.

  • jupiter3765

    body of proof and happy endings should be both bubble shows

  • Lauren

    @SecretShame

    Preach! And thank you!

    @lois

    Sure! Who cares about ratings? The CW will renew just what you want LOL

  • Wright

    Cancel TCD already.

  • Eran

    I don’t watch Malibu Country nor Last Man Standing, but I don’t understand why they are considered bubble shows. I mean, ABC’s Friday schedule became first nearly every week this season, and since it’s friday a comedy with 1.3-1.5 range sounds okay with me.

  • BigBrotherFan

    Seeing as HOW DECEPTION is the mid range of NBC’s 10pm shows in terms of ratings, and correct me if I’m wrong but outside THECELEBAPPRENTICE was it not the highest rated 10pm show for them last week? and like 2nd the week before? They can’t ignore that. Sure, it’s not a MONSTER in the ratings but I’m sure HANNIBAL GARBAGE will flop with that UGLY AS SIN ENGLISH ACTOR with the screwed up weird mouth. I would like to think DECEPTION might be more “ON THE BUBBLE”. What was NBC thinking or the casting with HUGH DANCY? He’s not famous. Most only REALLY know him as that annoying idiot Claire Danes boyfriend..What was the last think he did? coffessions of a shop-a-holic in 2009? Plus, his mouth is screwed up. HE IS NOT LEADING MAN MATERIAL THAT WAS THEIR HUGE MISTAKE IN CASTING HIM. I think someone like JOHN HAMM would of been perfect but oh well.

    WHAT ABOUT THE SYNDICATION RULE? Or does that just not apply to HAPPY ENDINGS? Stupid ABC screwed my top comedy up! HATE THAT NETWORK!

    I am THRILLED with my NASHVILLES POSITION on the list. THE BEST SHOW THIS SEASON NEXT TO THE FOLLOWING! It must come back. Great acting. Great story. Characters just about anyone can relate to :) EVEN SOME OF YOU!

  • BigBrotherFan

    …And yes I do enjoy DECEPTION

    come to think of it..HANNIBAL will be canned but they should of casted the actor in DECEPTION who plays Julian. He has leading man potential. No way would John Hamm do it because he’s a bit too good for NBC.

  • Michael1

    I’m rooting for “Guys with Kids”, “The New Normal”, and “Happy Endings” from the “certain cancellation” pile, but I’m not holding my breath. Both ABC sitcoms will be renewed as will “The Good Wife”, “Community” and “Beauty and The Beast.” “Rules of Engagement” will get another half-season.

  • Glue

    Yeah, even though I love The Carrie Diaries, I can see them cancelling both BaTB and TCD.

    BUT, If they renew BaTB and cancel TCD, I’ll be angry. Can they cancel all their Monday night shows?

  • Dan S

    @ BigBrotherFan, yes I’m a fan of Deception also but the numbers are what they are. It consistently scores around 1.2-1.3 losing to reruns of Castle & H50. There’s no way this show will be back after next week. Also it’s too early to pass judgement on Hannibal simply without having the benefit of viewing it yet. I enjoyed the extended preview during Grimm & I personally hope it can do better than its predecessors have been unable to do.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Glue: ANY show not making money can be canceled, no matter what night it’s on with no matter what other show.

    The CW has canceled four shows before, they can do it again. And based on the ratings and lack of proximity to syndication, they should do it for Cult, TCD and BATB (and EO, already done.)

  • Justin121

    Not all veteran series get Final Seasons.

    Private Practice and 90210 were cancelled.

  • andri

    Cancel the vaccum from k.&Michael morning live.kelly ripa. Don’t talk to the hitch I. Apt.23 is much more versatible well rounded grounded.

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