Bubble Watch: 'Hart of Dixie' Likely to Be Renewed; 'Beauty and the Beast' and 'The Carrie Diaries' Remain in Doubt

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 10th, 2013

 

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart Of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart Of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty And The Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty And The Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty And The Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixie will be renewed than Hart Of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty and the Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.)  I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Cult CW Certain or likely cancellation
Touch Fox Certain or likely cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Certain or likely cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Golden Boy CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Vegas CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Certain or likely cancellation
Deception NBC Certain or likely cancellation
The New Normal NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Smash NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Certain or likely renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Revenge ABC Certain or likely renewal
Suburgatory ABC Certain or likely renewal
Elementary CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hart of Dixie CW Certain or likely renewal
Nikita CW Certain or likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain or likely renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain or likely renewal
Nashville ABC Certain or likely renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain or likely renewal
Scandal ABC Certain or likely renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain or likely renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain or likely renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain or likely renewal
CSI CBS Certain or likely renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain or likely renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain or likely renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain or likely renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain or likely renewal
Glee Fox Certain or likely renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grimm NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain or likely renewal
Revolution NBC Certain or likely renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Brian

    Ohhhhh Pleaze! Heart Of Dixie is the lowest rated show..and a piece of Crap..Cancel it already…along with CULT!

  • BigBrotherFan

    @Dan S

    I think something has to be said that DECEPTION is atleast somewhat stable and is in the top 2 programs for NBC @10PM hour.

    Problem with Hannibal IT’S LEAD. I’m sure it’s a great show, but much the way of AWAKE I really think the lead hurts it more than anything. Jason Issacs was NOT a household name and I had no clue who he was when I watched Awake, and the same with Hannibal. I only know Hugh Dancy from a few of his films and he’s a good actor BUT he’s not really a household name nor is he anykind of leading man material. This is why this show will indeed fail.

    …Although, I could be wrong..Look @THEFIRM and I always though Josh Lucas has great leading man potential.

  • Felix

    Quick question: Why is “Mentalist” on the bubble if it already has been renewed for season 6 in june 2012?

    Simply googleing ‘mentalist “season 6″‘ should provide a source (since linking is not allowed)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Quick question: Why is “Mentalist” on the bubble if it already has been renewed for season 6 in june 2012?

    Simply googleing ‘mentalist “season 6?‘ should provide a source (since linking is not allowed)”

    That “news” about The Mentalist being renewed for season 6 long ago is anecdotal nonsense.

    It certainly may be renewed, but it has not yet been renewed, or you’d be able to find the news at *reputable* locations.

  • Win

    Another .9 on live +7 for hart of dixie. That show has a super steady following.

  • whitney

    I do NOT what The New Normal to be canceled.

  • James

    YAY- NIKITA likely/ Certain Renewal! I really hope CW never cancel this awesome show! I was addicted to this show ever since the first episode! Love the storyline and action in this show! The only sad thing is i can’t watch it on TV as i live in the UK and i unfortunately i have to always watch it online! PLEASE GET RENEWED! :) And people form US WATCH Nikita, Every Friday 8.7c on the CW! =D Trust me you will get hooked!…

  • Felix

    @Bill Gorman:

    thanks for the quick answer. I just remembered reading something like that on an german tv-news-website, but did not find that article anymore (or other sources besides twitter).
    However, thanks for the correction. Seems like the quality of the german website is pretty low – if they did not even print a correction after spreading those (false) rumors.

  • tscchope

    @RSH You’ve taken into account DST for TCD and BATB, but not for HoD.You’ve stated that CW shows have to reach 0.9 average for a season 1 and 0.5 for a season 2 to be renewed. You’ve also stated that CW can’t make money off ashow doing less than 0.5. To make such a statement , you’d have to know how CW costs and revenues are met. Do you, in fact, have that knowledge?

    Based on current ratings neither TCD nor BATB is going to match the 0.9 criterion. Based on the likely effect of DST on HoD that’s not going to match a 0.5 either. The one you said that is necessary even for a show approaching syndication. Based on current trends and criteria you have selected, there’s no chance any of these shows is returning, even if syndication were around the corner.

    Based on how the shows are currently doing, I see nothing wrong with listing HoD as Likely for Renewal or BATB as On the Bubble. I would label TCD as likely cancellation.

  • Dan

    @Justin121- Private Practice did get a final season, it just wasnt officially called that until October but the cast knew.

    As for Castle, it will continue to be safe as long as ABC as middling dramas. ABC has had no drama successes this season and Nashville is the obvious save face renewal. Dramas Revenge, Once Upon a Time are doing OK which is why they will get renewed. Only Grey’s and Scandal are deserving of the definite title.

    Same goes for Community.

    @Brandy – Carrie Diaries ending early has nothing to do with its possible cancellation. Midseason shows always end early because networks would rather not air repeats and they would like to air the season straight through. While I agree the show is heading into cancellation territory, don’t mistake any midseason show ending early as a bad sign.

  • Dan

    @Richard Steven Hack – Its not the same person, but I can tell you this. If CW cancels both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast I wont have a “WHAAAAAATTTTT!!!!!” reaction, I’ll have a “Oh they’re cleaning house and getting serious” reaction. I’m saying that the way The CW has operated over the years has indicated that they are more likely to save 1 bubble show rather then dump 2. With a new president that could certainly change and with the current ratings TCD could very well be cancelled and I am fully expecting Beauty and the Beast to be cancelled. I’m considering options and at this point The CW clearly has 2 options.

    With Arrow, Supernatural, and The Vampire Diaries all renewed and Nikita & Hart of Dixie a lock at this point (Plus Cult & 90210 cancelled) they could

    1) Renew 1 of the two between The Carrie Diaries & Beauty and the Beast (If CW had to choose 1 it would be TCD)

    or

    2) Cancel both bubble shows and start fresh.

    I’m leaning toward option two more but the question is CW ready to take the risk?

    @Robert – I like how you combined the likely/certain table as most would expect every single show on that list to be on the schedule next fall. The only two shows that may not be is The Neighbors depending on what direction ABC goes in and Revolution depending on how it does behind The Voice (Though I personally expect it to do well against Castle and Hawaii 5-0 even if it returns down. But at this point if any of the other shows on that list don’t get renewed for 2013-2014 I would be surprised.

  • Court

    I hope keep csiny my fave show I love Gary Sinise

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Brian: “Heart Of Dixie is the lowest rated show.”

    First, it’s “HART of Dixie”. Get the name of the show right if you want to be taken seriously here.

    Second, it’s not the lowest rated show. TCD is (of the non-canceled shows.)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    tscchope: “@RSH You’ve taken into account DST for TCD and BATB, but not for HoD.”

    Yes, HoD could fall, maybe even probably, before end of season. Two factors argue against that: 1) it’s been very stable all season, and 2) it’s closer to syndication than either TCD or BATB.

    “You’ve also stated that CW can’t make money off ashow doing less than 0.5. To make such a statement , you’d have to know how CW costs and revenues are met. Do you, in fact, have that knowledge?”

    Your assumption is wrong. I don’t have to know CW costs and revenues. I only have to know the history of the CW and its cancellations and renewals. If a show gets renewed, it’s either making money or at least breaking even (leaving out factors that the CW being UNABLE to cancel a show because it has no replacement – in such a case the show may be run at a loss, but my guess is the contract is negotiated to avoid that.)

    “Based on the likely effect of DST on HoD that’s not going to match a 0.5 either.”

    The DST effect is likely to be only 6-7% drop in a show which would drop HoD to a .4 season average. You may be right that the show has less syndication potential at that point. I think the stability of the show however may argue against the DST effect being applied uniformly across the board.

    Also, there’s no guarantee the DST effect will be applied across the board. Maybe BATB won’t be affected by it, or it will be offset by other factors.

    What DOES affect the situation is that HoD is in SEASON TWO. TCD and BATB are in SEASON ONE. The CW may well accept a lower rating for a season two show than a season one show.

    In any event, what happens to HoD doesn’t help TCD or BATB. Their ratings still aren’t good. BATB has the better shot, as I’ve said all along. But I still think its ratings will go down not only because of the DST effect, but because the show is crap. I believe it will collapse similarly to Ringer, but I obviously can’t prove that – YET.

    “there’s no chance any of these shows is returning, even if syndication were around the corner.”

    As I’ve said before, *I* would cancel all three shows AND I think the CW MIGHT do so. But if there’s a chance for syndication, AND if the claim that the CW CANNOT cancel all three shows is true, then the closeness to syndication will make the CW renew HoD, not BATB and certainly not TCD.

    “Based on how the shows are currently doing, I see nothing wrong with listing HoD as Likely for Renewal or BATB as On the Bubble. I would label TCD as likely cancellation.”

    As I have repeatedly said, based on CURRENT ratings, I agree. I just think BATB will fall further before it ends its run. It SHOULD based on its generally crappy quality. But obviously there is a chance it might not.

    HOWEVER, AGAIN… If it IS renewed, it’s going to do much worse in season two. It almost certainly will lose its slot on Thursday night to The Originals. Moved anywhere else, especially on Friday, it will do much worse than it is now. A show needs to do a .5 in season two. BATB will NOT do a season average of .5 in season two, I’m fairly sure of that.

    Since the CW can make that calculation, too, I don’t see them renewing it. They canceled TSC last year with MUCH better ratings than BATB.

    Dan: “don’t mistake any midseason show ending early as a bad sign.”

    I’d agree with that.

    “I’m saying that the way The CW has operated over the years has indicated that they are more likely to save 1 bubble show rather then dump 2. With a new president that could certainly change”

    Agreed. I think it will change. I think they will cancel all four shows: HoD, Cult, TCD and BATB. I think it IS more likely they will cancel three, however: Cult, TCD and BATB. HoD gets a shot solely for being stable and near to syndication.

    “1) Renew 1 of the two between The Carrie Diaries & Beauty and the Beast (If CW had to choose 1 it would be TCD)”

    No way will they chose TCD. No way. Its ratings are worse than BATB even taking into account BATB inability to hold TVD lead-in.

    Again – cite ONE TIME the CW has EVER renewed a show with a .5 rating HALFWAY through its FIRST season.

    No chance. No way.

    “2) Cancel both bubble shows and start fresh.”

    I’m convinced this is what will happen.

    “but the question is CW ready to take the risk?”

    What risk? They’re first season bubble shows. Replace them with new stuff and move on. HoD is the only show that they might quibble over. If the production studio offer them a decent enough deal on HoD, they might keep it regardless of the poor ratings – even under .5 if it goes that low.

    What matters with HoD if the DEAL the production studio gives the CW. It’s not really the CW that controls that decision. If they can make money on HoD in season three based on the contract, and they have nothing better to replace it with, they will, even if they move it to Friday.

    TCD and BATB have no such guarantee. They have to show they can make good enough ratings in season TWO for BOTH the production studio and the network. I contend neither can do so with any likelihood.

  • Dan

    CW may as well just air the new ANTM season fridays this fall like they did last season to avoid a hole or a repeat.

    Should both TCD & BATB get axed, If they launch 4 new dramas, should 1 get cancelled that could be the hole, to avoid 2 holes in the fall sched.

    Last year it was impossible to guess what CW would do between Nikita, Hart of Dixie, Gossip Girl, and Secret Circle. This year its easy, with both HOD & Nikita getting renewed CW will either cancel both of BATB & TCD or renew one of them.

  • HV

    I don’t know why everyone isn’t totally sure that Community will get renewed. If my math and my knowlege about syndication is correct, at the end of this season Community will have 84 episodes, four away from syndication. I think it is sure to get renewed because of that. If this was not true I think it would likely be canceled. I don’t even think that it will have any more than 13 episodes max next year anyway.

  • Penny

    1st I loose 90210, now it looks like i’m about to loose another two of my favorite shows; Happy Endings and The New Normal.

    I’m praying Happy Endings gets some kind of Season 4 deal or something with Sony.

  • Paul

    I am really concerned that “The Carrie Diaries” will be canceled. I love that sweet show! Please give it a chance CW. The acting is superb! I love the writing and how they are developing each main character including the Walt the guy who is likely to be gay. “Cheers” was not a hit right out the gate and that show is considered one of the best shows ever. Please give “The Carrie Diaries” a chance.

  • BPKK

    @RSHACK
    “To compare, TVLINE has BATB and Nikita as “Could go either way” and Hart as “A Safe bet” while Entertainment Weekly has Beauty as “Likely to continue,” Nikita “a wild card” and Hart as “reasonably safe.””

    Those predictors don’t seem to be basing their predictions on anything but guessing. This site works off of ratings and has a 98% prediction rate. Forget those other sites.”

    Well TVLIne said they came up with their predictions based on the following:
    “After a lot of digging around the industry (and a bit of soul-searching), here are our predictions about which shows will likely survive — and which will mercifully wither — before the season comes to an end.” They also included Live + 7 avg.

  • Brandy

    @Brian, no HoD is not the lowest rated show.Nikita, Cult,GG,Emily Owens,90210,Carrie Diaries have all done worse this season in either or both demo & total viewers.Its currently tied with BaTB For fourth Highest rated cw show in demo & total viewers and Live +7 DVr. It’s very stable in the ratings too.

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