Bubble Watch: 'Hart of Dixie' Likely to Be Renewed; 'Beauty and the Beast' and 'The Carrie Diaries' Remain in Doubt

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 10th, 2013

 

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart Of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart Of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty And The Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty And The Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty And The Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixie will be renewed than Hart Of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty and the Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.)  I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Cult CW Certain or likely cancellation
Touch Fox Certain or likely cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Certain or likely cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Golden Boy CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Vegas CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Certain or likely cancellation
Deception NBC Certain or likely cancellation
The New Normal NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Smash NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Certain or likely renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Revenge ABC Certain or likely renewal
Suburgatory ABC Certain or likely renewal
Elementary CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hart of Dixie CW Certain or likely renewal
Nikita CW Certain or likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain or likely renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain or likely renewal
Nashville ABC Certain or likely renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain or likely renewal
Scandal ABC Certain or likely renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain or likely renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain or likely renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain or likely renewal
CSI CBS Certain or likely renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain or likely renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain or likely renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain or likely renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain or likely renewal
Glee Fox Certain or likely renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grimm NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain or likely renewal
Revolution NBC Certain or likely renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Cyrax86

    Poor Red Widow.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Considering how expensive Smash is, and how low its ratings are, shouldn’t it be a certain cancellation?

    I think that’s a perfectly reasonable judgment. The only reason I haven’t downgraded it is because on the cancel side I usually don’t make as much distinctions between likely and certain as I do on the renewal side (it’s a quirk!) so I wind up not seeing any harm in waiting for The Voice and Revolution to return before downgrading further.

  • were123

    Cult is on the table twice, as certain cancellation and as likely cancellation

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Cult is on the table twice

    #$%!. Fixed, thanks.

  • HV

    Last Man Standing is still on the bubble? Come on! It needs to move up to likely renewal!

  • Jared

    People seem to really love Hart of Dixie and it is one of the steadiest series the CW has. The way it was launched during season one might have thought this show would never last considering Ringer was the BIG show and highly promoted at the time. I really dont think the CW had much faith in this show in the beginning but look at it now. There’s no doubt in my mind the network will renew this series for seasons 3 and 4.

  • Shepherd

    I see that the “fixes are coming”, but in case you missed it, you have Cult listed under certain and likely canceled; I think you forgot to delete likely.

    I’m glad that you’ve finally agreed to move Nashville to likely, rather than certain renewal, but I wish it could have bee moved this week rather than next. I understand the decision to not steal away thunder from your CW article though.

    I pretty much agree with your CW assessment, but I never stopped to try and put percentages on the various scenarios, but the ones you came up with seem pretty good. From your article, it would seem like you are certain that either BaTB or TCD will be cancelled so I’m a bit disappointed to see them both on the bubble still. I would totally have TCD under likely canceled, even if I had to move it back to the bubble next week.

    I wasn’t really aware of the CW’s lack of reluctance to have a gap in their schedule, but it still conforms to what I’ve been saying; that the CW would have no problem canceling both BaTB and TCD should the ratings warrant such a move. Assuming that the W decides not to squeeze ANTM onto the fall schedule, I still see the slight possibility that the CW could launch 4 drams in the fall plus one unscripted show, especially if you are right in that they may plan to launch an unscripted show with the intention of replacing it with repeats for the sole purpose of not having any advertised gaps in their schedule come fall. Again, I only see this as one of their options should they find it necessary to cancel both BaTB and TCD, which it is looking more and more likely.

    I think this also supports my semi-theory that they could cobble together a reality show over the summer after they have made a final decision on TCD and BaTB if they plan on giving it the “H8R treatment”. I think I totally forgot that show even existed.

  • halloween

    I hope CW actually has good pilots this time around so they can cancel these low rated bubble shows…BatB probably only survives if CW wants 2 hours scripted on Fridays…but they shouldn’t even bother

  • DeanW

    CSI: NY should be “On the Bubble” especially since Golden Boy is a flop. Vegas will tank too and Blue Bloods needs a good lead-in.

  • halloween

    You questioned if CW pilots stink..what do they do? They order them to series like Cult, Beauty and the Beast and Emily Owens?

  • aleksander eide

    there are only 54 more tv shows that havent been renewed or canceled

  • Brandy

    Love seeing HoD in Likley renewal and Once,Nashville,2 Broke Girls in certain renwal.Sad to see BATB and CD on the bubble.BATB really could go either way but CD is Likley to certain cancellation.Of my bubble shows(Smash, CD,BATB,HoD,Nashville,Bunheads,Lying Game), I most want HoD,Nashville,BATB renewed.Sad to see Smash as Likley cancellation.

  • Matt

    I think that its likely that by the end of the season, ‘Castle’ will be upgraded back to Certain Renewal by the end of the season Despite ‘Castle’s steady decline the entire season compared to last, it is going through its normal non-DWTS lead in era, during December-March, in which it does decline, but then rises back when DWTS is back.

  • Olka

    What are you waiting for, CW?
    Renew Nikita already along with Hart of Dixie.

  • halloween

    @Olka they likely wait longer and negotiate budget cuts

  • Californiadgd

    LMS on the bubble
    Nashville Certain

    hahahahahahahahahahaha

  • Gisela

    I just hope they don’t cancel Beauty and the Beast. It’s one of the few shows where people don’t eat each other, and the humor is not crass. B&B deserves to be renewed

  • *S (@chanel_and_punk)

    yay 4 Nashville!

  • Sel

    Gosh, it sure make my eyes blistering of joy when I see HoD as likely renewal :)

  • Dan

    This season CW is easier to predict Nikita & Hart of Dixie will certainly be renewed. It’s now a battle between The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast to see which one if any will be renewed. My guess is one if the two will return but I wouldn’t be shocked if both were cancelled.

    @Rob – if syndication bound Blue Bloods is certain to be renewed, why isn’t Hawaii 5-0.

    CBS really should renew their normal amount of shows early.

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