Bubble Watch: 'Hart of Dixie' Likely to Be Renewed; 'Beauty and the Beast' and 'The Carrie Diaries' Remain in Doubt

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 10th, 2013

 

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart Of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart Of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty And The Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty And The Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty And The Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixie will be renewed than Hart Of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty And The Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.)  I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Cult CW Certain or likely cancellation
Touch Fox Certain or likely cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Certain or likely cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Golden Boy CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Vegas CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Certain or likely cancellation
Deception NBC Certain or likely cancellation
The New Normal NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Smash NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Certain or likely renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Revenge ABC Certain or likely renewal
Suburgatory ABC Certain or likely renewal
Elementary CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hart of Dixie CW Certain or likely renewal
Nikita CW Certain or likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain or likely renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain or likely renewal
Nashville ABC Certain or likely renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain or likely renewal
Scandal ABC Certain or likely renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain or likely renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain or likely renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain or likely renewal
CSI CBS Certain or likely renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain or likely renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain or likely renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain or likely renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain or likely renewal
Glee Fox Certain or likely renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grimm NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain or likely renewal
Revolution NBC Certain or likely renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Ultima

    @DeanW
    CSI: NY should be “On the Bubble” especially since Golden Boy is a flop.

    Golden Boy failing does absolutely nothing to help the chances of CBS’ veteran dramas – the assumption for the past several months has been that the show would fail. Of course, had it been a hit, it would have made renewal less likely for CSI:NY et al.

  • Jade

    Renewals of the CW bubble series will come down to how strong the pilots they have for next season. If those pilots are strong,I could see the network cancelling more than just 1 series. If not, BATB seems like the obvious choice based on the fact that it could be paired with any number of the CWs current series(Arrow,TVD,SPN,Nikita)or paired up with Tomorrow People,Oxygen,The Selection etc. Hart of Dixie is getting renewed which leaves TCD on the cancellation block.

  • Common Anomaly

    RIP – Scripted Cable Renew/Cancel Status – 11/07/12 – 02/23/13 – 12 Episodes

    Burned off on Saturdays like Wedding Band on TBS. Drop Dead Diva rises from the dead while Robert Seidman’s list drops dead. Brickleberry and After Lately never met Seidman’s stringent criteria to be included on the list (scripted and on cable), even though both shows had in the past posted a 18-49 demo rating of 1.0 or above, but they have the last laugh as both those shows were renewed after one season, while Robert Seidman’s little page viewed list couldn’t find an audience because Seidman’s direction confused viewers. Was it a comedy or was it supposed to be drama? One thing we are definitely sure of is the cancellation is no tragedy.

    Status – Cancelled – Bubble Burst

  • ateofi

    When are we going to have confirmation of renewal for Castle and H50? Elementary should also be in certain renewal group.

  • KS

    Hart Of Dixe:
    There were no doubts about HoD at any point of time. It is a certain renewal.

    Beauty and The Beast:
    I still think ratings will fall once it returns, just like TSC last season. Based on latest information, CW has spin-off of Vampire Diaries which can take the 9 pm Thursday slot. I see, this show being cancelled.

    The Carrie Diaries
    I think this show has greater chances for renewal.

  • Ultima

    @Jade
    Renewals of the CW bubble series will come down to how strong the pilots they have for next season. If those pilots are strong,I could see the network cancelling more than just 1 series. If not, BATB seems like the obvious choice

    I disagree. The CW is likely to have three new dramas on the schedule in the fall, no matter if they renew five dramas or six. If Beauty and the Beast’s ratings continue to decline, I think the CW will be better off replacing it with cheap, unscripted filler.

    I also think that B&B’s ratings will continue to decline and even though the network as a whole is doing worse, the shows being renewed are actually doing better than last season (TVD is flat, HOD is flat, SPN is up, Arrow is their best new show in a long time), while B&B is doing worse than TSC was.

  • Dan S

    They ended NY on the right note & despite being a fan it should be left to RIP. CSI can nicely fill the void on Fridays next fall. I have every expectation to seeing H50 move to Sun despite airing on Fri this summer. Bottom line is its going to lose its coveted Mon berth. Although not a fan I got a strong feeling BATB will likely return on Fri next season paired with Nikita. With only 10hrs a week for the CW it would be a waste not to program at 9pm on Fri.

  • Ultima

    @KS
    The Carrie Diaries
    I think this show has greater chances for renewal.

    It’s getting 0.4s and the CW looks like it is completely abandoning the genre. Certain cancellation.

  • Shepherd

    @Ultima

    Just to be clear, you’re saying that if the CW renews 5 shows, they would premier 3 dramas, 1 unscripted, and have one filler, or would they be sure to move ANTM to the filler spot? Or just renew 4 drama plus 1 unscripted. :)

  • HV

    I don’t really know much of anything about the CW, but I hope that their pilot “The Hundred” gets picked up for series. It is the one CW pilot that I think I may actually watch.

  • s0303

    both lms and nashville should be likely renewal…smash should be certain cancelllation…agree with everything else.

  • disney rocks

    Things NBC has accomplishe this year- (This includes smart decisions and good-rated shows too)

    -Having Sunday night football
    - Being really smart with Chicago Fire and letting it become a success over time
    - Giving Chicago Fire an SVU lead-in
    - Having The Voice
    - Being smart with Grimm
    - Ending 30 Rock and The Office
    - Biggest Loser 1-cycle a year
    - Managing to keep Parks and Rec in the “okay” range
    - Dateline being steady
    - Betty whites off their rokcers
    - parenthood

    Things TBD that could be an accomplishment-

    -Revolution treatment (Likely)
    - Whintey
    - GWK
    - The Voice sexcond cycle (Highly likely)
    - Hannibal (Possible!)

    Things they have failed at-

    -Deception
    - Do no harm
    - Fashion Star
    - ANimal Practice
    - Go On
    - TNN
    - UAN
    - Penn something?
    - Rock Center
    - smash, Parenthood shoulve got a 24 episode order instead of this garbage
    - etc.

    Things they may be a TBD failure-

    - The Voices 2nd cycle (Highly unlikely!)
    - Revolution second half (Unlikely!)
    - Hannibal (Possible!)
    - GWK (Possible!)
    - Whitney (Possible!)

  • Ultima

    @Shepherd
    Just to be clear

    Five returning dramas, three new dramas, one hour of unscripted (Monday or Tuesday), and a second hour of unscripted or scheduled repeats on Friday.

    The unscriped slots could be either new shows, shows that start during the summer or shows that run early in the summer and are picked up for another late-starting cycle in November, with repeats of new series until then.

    I think Hart of Dixie and Nikita are certain renewals.

  • Shepherd

    @Ultima

    The unscripted slots could be either new shows, shows that start during the summer or shows that run early in the summer and are picked up for another late-starting cycle in November, with repeats of new series until then.

    Right on. Two unscripted shows never even occurred to me. Especially the possibility of renewing a summer series, and now that I think about it, they could also import one from Canada a la that one show I forget the name of that did absolutely horribly.

  • BigBrotherFan

    @TVBYTHENUMBERS

    Great pic, FOLKS! Love both those ladies..SUPER HOT!

    HOD SEASON 3 HERE WE COME!

  • meah

    Between BATB and TCD I think BATB would be renewed,but I think both of them would be renewed..CW has enough space to place new shows now that cult(dead),gossip girl,90210,emily owens are basically cancelled.so am not stressed out at all,I dunno why u guys are.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Common Anomaly: nicely done! I may post a cancellation notice next week and use your prose (with proper attribution, of course).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    There are many ways to skin the cat of likely vs. certain. I have replaced the table above with a real-time beta test of the simplest way to skin it which occurred to me long ago, but…inertia. I accept that there are valid criticisms of the approach and look forward to the feedback.

  • Shepherd

    I’m not sure that I an get on board with the new system. I’m sure it makes your life easier, but with only three categories, There is hardly any real predictions going on. I’m no web expert, but with less controversy, I’d imagine you’ll get fewer page views as well.

    I also think it diminishes your standing as “renewal/cancellation” experts in the industry. Any run of the mill website can make similar predictions.
    Just my two cents.

  • HV

    I agree with Shepherd. Looks horrible now. You should definately change it back.

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