Bubble Watch: 'Hart of Dixie' Likely to Be Renewed; 'Beauty and the Beast' and 'The Carrie Diaries' Remain in Doubt

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 10th, 2013

 

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart Of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart Of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty And The Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty And The Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty And The Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixie will be renewed than Hart of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty and the Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.)  I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Cult CW Certain or likely cancellation
Touch Fox Certain or likely cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Certain or likely cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Golden Boy CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Vegas CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Certain or likely cancellation
Deception NBC Certain or likely cancellation
The New Normal NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Smash NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Certain or likely renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Revenge ABC Certain or likely renewal
Suburgatory ABC Certain or likely renewal
Elementary CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hart of Dixie CW Certain or likely renewal
Nikita CW Certain or likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain or likely renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain or likely renewal
Nashville ABC Certain or likely renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain or likely renewal
Scandal ABC Certain or likely renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain or likely renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain or likely renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain or likely renewal
CSI CBS Certain or likely renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain or likely renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain or likely renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain or likely renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain or likely renewal
Glee Fox Certain or likely renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grimm NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain or likely renewal
Revolution NBC Certain or likely renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Jim

    @Ultima

    “Golden Boy failing does absolutely nothing to help the chances of CBS’ veteran dramas”

    Do you know that for sure? Or do you say that cuz you’re one of the idiots that wants CSI:NY cancelled?

  • Funeral Dinner

    Carrie Diaries doesn’t stand a chance of getting renewed.

  • omabin

    I agree with Shephed. There is enough of a case to be made to distinguish between certain and likely in 90% of the shows. I don’t like to be forced to decide between bubble show and certain to be canceled/ renewed, there has to be an in between.

    On another note, great post today about the cw, agree with everything 100%.

  • tommie

    Re: CW I still don’t see them renewing Carrie Diares OR Beauty and the Beast.

    It just would make no sense, especially now that they’ve acquired the rights to Whose Line Is It Anyway. They could easily just continue to produce episodes of that, or Oh Sit! into next season if they had to.

  • June

    The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart because it had a strong debut and higher fall ratings. By late spring, Hart was out performing Secret Circle and Ringer in the 18-49 demo, not just the 18-34.

  • Shepherd

    @Jim

    Do you know that for sure? Or do you say that cuz you’re one of the idiots that wants CSI:NY cancelled?

    I think that you’re confusing people saying that the show will be canceled, with their desire that it be canceled. I think you’ll find that most people with any sort of emotional interest in the matter have deluded themselves into believing that the show still has some kind of chance at renewal; those with no stake in the matter can see the writing on the wall.

    CSI:NY will probably be canceled. Low ratings for Vegas or Golden Boy wont have any bearing on that.

    I would add, that if anyone around here is unbiased about their predictions; Ultima would be the one.

  • Anon

    I still say HoD will not be renewed, for the record.

    re: that picture at the top of the article

    Why is the neon sign in the window backwards? It should be facing outwards, so that people outside can read it without a mirror.

    LMS made the same mistake with a recent diner scene.

    Grrrrrrrrrr

  • Claudia

    @Ultima”I also think that B&B’s ratings will continue to decline and even though the network as a whole is doing worse, the shows being renewed are actually doing better than last season (TVD is flat, HOD is flat, SPN is up, Arrow is their best new show in a long time), while B&B is doing worse than TSC was.”

    Are we looking at the same ratings here???? Because #BATB fluctuates back and forth its not declining as a whole and we havent seen a new episdoe in 3 weeks we cant really compared as of right now until new episodes come back

  • Shepherd

    @Robert

    Back to the new index: It occurred to me that you might also have more trouble coming up with new, and particularly ‘grabbing’ headlines. Shows pretty much debut on the bubble, and the only opportunity that you’ll have for new headlines will be whenever a show moves on or off of the bubble. That doesn’t seem to happen every week. Fewer grabbing headlines may also translate to fewer page views.

    My third cent worth.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Shepherd: I understand your point of view, but not sure I agree on multiple fronts. First and foremost, Bill isn’t changing the way the Renew/Cancel Index works.

    The bubble watch evolved mostly as something to post on Sundays. While it gives me a vehicle for opining in the rare instances where my thinking is so different than Bill’s I think it’s worth offering the opinion, those instances were always rare and they are even rarer now than when Bubble Watch began. Plus, there usually are only very brief time gaps in those differences –whether I’d ever done the above post or not, if the ratings landscape stays the same, I’m guessing sooner rather than later, Bill would have upgraded Hart of Dixie.

    Ultimately the expertise shows in the results or it doesn’t and if ~95% of the predicted renewals and cancellations are renewed and canceled, there’s not really any difference in the expertise. While I do care about getting most things right, it’s not important to me personally whether I’m perceived as an expert. When people ask for quotes or interviews I almost always decline because I don’t perceive any value in that beyond having my ego stroked, and I got sufficient ego stroking as a younger man. If I had a family or my parents and grandparents were still alive and could bask, for example in the “my son was quoted in the New York Times!” glory, I’d probably feel very differently on that score.

    Keeping in mind that it’s mostly “something usually more interesting than Saturday night broadcast ratings” I’m not too worried about “run of the mill” I could (and probably ultimately will) move to having Amanda & Sara just post renew/cancel index recaps on Sunday (effectively combining all five R/C tables into one). The rare times where I don’t see eye-to-eye with Bill I can either throw it into the recaps or do a separate post.

    As for traffic, I’d be shocked if it makes much difference (same for if we just went with R/C weekly recap). There might be fewer comments, but that is usually not any indication of actual traffic. What matters more than anything in the actual post are the words in the headline. I really wish that it wasn’t the case, but the data is in: my wishing doesn’t matter, that’s the case.

  • Jim

    @Shepherd

    “I think you’ll find that most people with any sort of emotional interest in the matter have deluded themselves into believing that the show still has some kind of chance at renewal; those with no stake in the matter can see the writing on the wall.”

    deluded themselves? That might be true if the cancellation was made official and public. And correct me if I’m wrong, the last time I checked there’s been no official cancellation of the show announced and until it is made official my emotional interest in the matter is very much justified and your comment is very much idiotic and baseless.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    It occurred to me that you might also have more trouble coming up with new, and particularly ‘grabbing’ headlines.

    Only if you assume that I can’t do whatever I want in the headline because of how the table is laid out. That’s a bad assumption!

    Also, I think there is one potential benefit to the approach and that it will have me focus more on which shows ought to be moved OFF the bubble one way or the other.

  • Jim

    @Shepherd

    “I would add, that if anyone around here is unbiased about their predictions; Ultima would be the one.”

    and that’s based on what? you actually slept with the guy?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart because it had a strong debut and higher fall ratings. By late spring, Hart was out performing Secret Circle and Ringer in the 18-49 demo, not just the 18-34.

    Nope, it wasn’t because of the big fall. Even just based on the January-May ratings The Secret Circle had a big lead.

  • Melanie

    I’m not seeing Castle in the table.

    The combined version is good as the season progresses — I think the separate deliniations are probably more appropriate for the early predictions (and headlines ;)).

  • Amanda

    #GiveBATBSecondSeason alredy!!!!!!!!!!! BEUTY AND THE BEAST IS THE BEST SHOW ON AIR RIGHT NOW! I NEED A SECOND SEASON TO LIVE!

  • Jim

    @Shepherd

    I don’t care what anybody says. The predictions made here are very much biased. To believe otherwise? That’s being delusional.

  • Jonay

    Gun to head which one do you think will be renewed Beauty and the beast or The Carrie Diaries??

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Melanie: Castle is at the top of the combined Certain or Likely renewal! I agree there may be benefits to additional segmentation earlier in the season.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    Gun to head which one do you think will be renewed Beauty and the beast or The Carrie Diaries??

    @Jonay: neither.

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