Bubble Watch: 'Hart of Dixie' Likely to Be Renewed; 'Beauty and the Beast' and 'The Carrie Diaries' Remain in Doubt

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 10th, 2013

 

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart Of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart Of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty And The Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty And The Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty And The Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixie will be renewed than Hart of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty And The Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.)  I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Cult CW Certain or likely cancellation
Touch Fox Certain or likely cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Certain or likely cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Golden Boy CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Vegas CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Certain or likely cancellation
Deception NBC Certain or likely cancellation
The New Normal NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Smash NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Certain or likely renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Revenge ABC Certain or likely renewal
Suburgatory ABC Certain or likely renewal
Elementary CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hart of Dixie CW Certain or likely renewal
Nikita CW Certain or likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain or likely renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain or likely renewal
Nashville ABC Certain or likely renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain or likely renewal
Scandal ABC Certain or likely renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain or likely renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain or likely renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain or likely renewal
CSI CBS Certain or likely renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain or likely renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain or likely renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain or likely renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain or likely renewal
Glee Fox Certain or likely renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grimm NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain or likely renewal
Revolution NBC Certain or likely renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Ultima

    @Jim
    Do you know that for sure? Or do you say that cuz you’re one of the idiots that wants CSI:NY cancelled?

    I know that for sure. I have no idea what CBS will do with CSI:NY, but I do know that Golden Boy has nothing to do with it.

    CBS Fall 2012 – 10 returning dramas, 3 new dramas, 3 hours sitcoms, 2 hours reality, 2 hours Saturday repeats, 2 hours newsmagazines

    CBS Fall 2013 will be exactly the same, unless they cut the returning drama hours to add an additional hour of reality or sitcoms (they certainly will not cut anything else).

    Elementary will be renewed, so they must cut one of this season’s returning drams to make room for it (i.e. CSI NY, The Good Wife or The Mentalist). If they need more room (due to cutting drama hours or Unforgettable being on the schedule), they must cancel a second show from that list.

    Golden Boy failing does absolutely nothing to change that equation. However, had it actually been a hit – that would be yet another hour that they would have had to make room for.

    For CBS, the assumption is that their midseason dramas will fail because they haven’t renewed one in seven years. Golden Boy’s failure was expected, so it does nothing to help CSI:NY.

    It’s important to look at their schedule as a whole and not just at a particular night or timeslot. Those claiming that CSI:NY must be renewed because the new Friday dramas failed are using poor logic. They’re the same type of people who insisted that CBS had to renew Ghost Whisperer because there was no way they would cancel two Friday shows in one season. They failed to see the big picture, otherwise they would have known that it was not only possible, but necessary.

  • Shepherd

    @Robert

    Only if you assume that I can’t do whatever I want in the headline because of how the table is laid out. That’s a bad assumption!

    Hey now, to be fair I said “might”. I’m sure that you’re right about all of the points you made, I was just trying to offer some feedback/ a different perspective. Thanks for your reply though. :)

  • cadburyeasteregg

    Isn’t it about time for the CSI franchise to die? It’s been going for over two decades now. Then again Survivor is still running and that premiered around the same time, so what do I know?

  • Shepherd

    @Jim

    I don’t care what anybody says. The predictions made here are very much biased. To believe otherwise? That’s being delusional.

    Yea, so often biased, and yet almost always correct.. Help me out here @Robert, @Bill, what’s your average record? 95-98% accurate. That sounds very biased to me.

  • Kat Ryn

    Beauty and the Beast and The Following are the only shows that I care whether is renewed for another season!!! And that is not say that I don’t watch any of the other shows as I do regularly watch Revenge, Revolution, Once Upon a Time, Touch, Nashville and several others, but, those I am not passionate about!!! But unlike the lack of real passion for the previously mentioned shows, I passionately LOVE BatB and TF!!! Now, that TF has been renewed, what can be done to make certain BatB is renewed?!?!?

  • Ultima

    @Claudia
    Are we looking at the same ratings here???? Because #BATB fluctuates back and forth its not declining as a whole

    It tied a series low each of the past two weeks and all shows experience ratings declines in the spring; I expect to see 0.4s for it in May and don’t think the CW will renew it with those ratings.

  • Ultima

    @Shepherd
    I would add, that if anyone around here is unbiased about their predictions; Ultima would be the one.

    Thank you! :mrgreen:

  • Shepherd

    @Jim

    Perhaps you simply don’t know what the word biased means? It’s when somebody lets their emotions and personal opinions interfere with their assessment of the situation. Since you obviously watch the show, and seem very passionate about the matter, I’d say that you are the only biased person in this conversation.

  • Jim

    @Jonay

    “Gun to head which one do you think will be renewed Beauty and the beast or The Carrie Diaries??”

    Gun to head. You know I think TV viewing would benefit a lot if the network excs did that to themselves.

  • CH2164

    now now since ‘TSC’ has been mentioned once again the only reason it went to.the graveyard is because it was a very expensive show

    BATB doesn’t look expensive at all,so basically i see it coming back!

  • Jim

    @cadburyeasteregg

    “Isn’t it about time for the CSI franchise to die? It’s been going for over two decades now. Then again Survivor is still running and that premiered around the same time, so what do I know?”

    You’re right. What do you know? Answer. Nothing.

  • Ultima

    @cadburyeasteregg
    Isn’t it about time for the CSI franchise to die? It’s been going for over two decades now

    The CSI franchise is only in its 13th season. Maybe you’re thinking of the Law & Order franchise, which is in its 23rd season.

  • david

    I am thinking The Carie Diaries will be canciled because it has followen to .4 allready and the as for Beauty and the
    Beast i like the show and i hope it gets renewed and moved to Fridays. But, i would not be surprised it they cancil it too if the current pilots they are working on like the Hundred and the Selection are really good and they like more than three of them.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Shepherd: to be fair, accuracy at least somewhat depends on how/when you count. But even with a couple of misses the accuracy is in the 98% range by the end of the season even if you remove the toss-ups/bubble shows from the accuracy calculation.

  • Xerophytes

    Fox really believe that their current line-up is good enough?

  • Jim

    @Ultima

    “They failed to see the big picture, otherwise they would have known that it was not only possible, but necessary.”

    and you think canceling CSI:NY is necessary for what? To make room for new shows that are DOA?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Jim:

    If you keep hurling insults directly at others (like numbnuts and dummy) I’m going to block you. I definitely have that bias.

  • Jim

    @Robert Seidman

    Well excuse me. I didn’t know being some bigshot running a website gave one the right to ignore freedom of speech. With all due respect, you are the epitome of what our government has become, sir.

  • Immaculate

    “It tied a series low each of the past two weeks and all shows experience ratings declines in the spring; I expect to see 0.4s for it in May and don’t think the CW will renew it with those ratings.”

    How can you say “all shows experience ratings declines in the spring”? What are the reasons for which such a general conclusion could be made? I am very wary of all or nothing claims. BatB had a .6 in its most recent new episode that was knocked down to a .5 because of a bogus half hour “adjustment”, but its ratings have been quite consistent throughout the year, which points to a relatively stable fan base that tends to tune in. It seems to me like all those who have these falling ratings predictions are simply basing it on their own biases or whims that wish it to fail for whatever strange motivations they have.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    As far as the “test” of not bothering to skin the cat, if you kept it, I’d change “certain or likely” to “probable”. However, I think that many of us didn’t understand what your reasoning’s were for how you “skinned the cat”, not that you shouldn’t try to skin it. For instance, Blue Bloods & H50 were on two different ranks, with BB being more certain, explain please.

    Personally, it makes it much simpler. I had already figured that “Certain or Likely” were closer to their respective Renew/Cancel rankings than “Bubble”. I figured only the “Bubble” shows are the ones that are up for debate. The rest basically have their fate sealed. Which means that in your analysis, CSI:NY is done & 4 episodes behind The Voice will not save The New Normal.

    Also, I don’t know how you get your revenue, whether it’s page views or click throughs (ads must be clicked on), but the comments will be less b/c a lot of people tend to try and get you to change btwn “Certain & Likely”. This doesn’t mean less people will come to read however, you lose 1 page view for every lost comment. Probably more b/c less reason to refresh/come back. Though, I doubt you lose any click throughs from those commenters.

    Now, that you’ve made it a 5, instead of 7, category rank system, the only disagreement I have is Last Man Standing. I think based on # of episodes & solid Friday demo & a small factor of Tim Allen & type of show (aka should get good syndication numbers), it should be on the renewal side. I know that it’s not an ABC Production but ABC loves to win Friday & LMS really helps them out. I don’t think it’s “Certain”, but I do think it’s way more “Likely” than it is “Bubble”.

    Just typing up that last paragraph, I realize why you may need a 7 category system. You probably will have to keep shows on the bubble longer, so as to not get something wrong. A “likely” that’s wrong is much easier to accept as wrong than a “certain”. Then again, if you change the term to “probable”, that concern goes away b/c “probable” implies that you aren’t “certain” but you would be willing to bet. True, many shows are actually “certain”, but we “all” already know which ones they are.

    Since this ranking is taking into account what will most likely happen for future episodes demo ratings, once a show is not a “Bubble” anymore, it shouldn’t go back to “Bubble”, unless the ratings really trend up/down for more than a month or so. After Feb sweeps, it should take every remaining episode (aka May), in order to move a show from “Certain or Likely” back to “Bubble”. I also think that Mid Season shows shouldn’t be removed from “Bubble” until week 4, unless they really tank. If they are like The Following, I would still have waited until Week 4. As far as Fall shows, I’m more forgiving. I don’t want to have to wait until Nov/Dec for all the New/2yr Shows to have a prediction. So, in the fall, shows can go back & forth more freely from the “Bubble” to “Certain or Likely”. During the fall Bubble Watch can act a bit more like Renew/Cancel Index. This way there is something to talk about.

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