Bubble Watch: 'Hart of Dixie' Likely to Be Renewed; 'Beauty and the Beast' and 'The Carrie Diaries' Remain in Doubt

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 10th, 2013

 

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart Of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart Of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty And The Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty And The Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty And The Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixie will be renewed than Hart Of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty And The Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.)  I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Cult CW Certain or likely cancellation
Touch Fox Certain or likely cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Certain or likely cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Golden Boy CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Vegas CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Certain or likely cancellation
Deception NBC Certain or likely cancellation
The New Normal NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Smash NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Certain or likely renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Revenge ABC Certain or likely renewal
Suburgatory ABC Certain or likely renewal
Elementary CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hart of Dixie CW Certain or likely renewal
Nikita CW Certain or likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain or likely renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain or likely renewal
Nashville ABC Certain or likely renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain or likely renewal
Scandal ABC Certain or likely renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain or likely renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain or likely renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain or likely renewal
CSI CBS Certain or likely renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain or likely renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain or likely renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain or likely renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain or likely renewal
Glee Fox Certain or likely renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grimm NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain or likely renewal
Revolution NBC Certain or likely renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Ultima

    @Jim
    I didn’t know being some bigshot running a website gave one the right to ignore freedom of speech.

    Have you ever even read the United States Constitution?

    Amendment I

    Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

    Pretty sure that doesn’t apply to a privately owned and operated website.

  • Ultima

    @Immaculate
    How can you say “all shows experience ratings declines in the spring”?

    Because it’s happened to virtually every single show for the past three decades. The only exceptions have been extremely popular, first season shows (e.g. Desperate Housewives) and even then it is a rarity.

    What are the reasons for which such a general conclusion could be made?

    Between Daylight Saving Time and the generally better spring weather, primetime TV viewership declines from winter to spring to summer.

  • danny94

    if carrie is cancelled, hart of dixie will be the only non action/fantasy show on the network, Does the CW have any pilots in production that will be compatible with hart?,

  • Moose

    @ Ultima

    People get emotionally invested in television shows all of the time. I freely admit that long ago I used to be that way myself. Now I accept those shows for what they are, good or bad.

    I wouldn’t take what anyone has to say towards you personal. I think it is just the pure frustration of watching shows that are liked tossed on the cancellation pile. Misdirected anger.

    On another topic entirely, I will freely admit that by visiting this wonderful website, that I have avoided watching some brand new shows simply because their chance of success was slim to none.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    For instance, Blue Bloods & H50 were on two different ranks, with BB being more certain, explain please.

    @Anna:

    That is a good example of why I want to get rid of the segmentation. There are reasons I separated them, and they have been explained before, but I don’t want to get into them every single week.

    On the flip side, it’s not always true about the fates being sealed and the distinctions sometimes do (and should) matter. For example, CSI: NY’s prospects might not be great, but they are in my opinion very definitely and distinctively greater than either Vegas or Golden Boy.

  • Brandy

    @ Danny94. Blink a quirky drama about a man in a coma able to see and hear but not speak.Copmany Town a drama about friends on a military base.Reign, about Mary ,Queen of Scott’s.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Ultima: though I hadn’t noticed previously it appears that you can’t cheat the “anti-linking” system if the www is included (at least that was the case with the CW pilots link).

  • Shepherd

    @Moose

    On another topic entirely, I will freely admit that by visiting this wonderful website, that I have avoided watching some brand new shows simply because their chance of success was slim to none.

    I’m not trying to criticize, or tell you how to enjoy TV, but you may be causing yourself to miss out on some good shows. Whether or not I know a show is going to be canceled, I still like to watch if it looked interesting. I also like it if I know ahead of time whether a show will ultimately get canceled because I can avoid disappointment. At the same time, I’ve found some shows that were canceled after s.1 to be very entertaining. That’s just me of course, but I wanted to share.

  • Brandy

    @ Immaculate, it’s been steady at low numbers despite the best leadin.It went from a 1.2 for the premiere to a 0.6 in episode thee and by halfway through the season has had three 0.5s.That was a huge drop between premiere and episode three.Even cancelled SC had better ratings this time last year.Second ,some may predict its cancellation because they want it cancelled(SC,Ringer fans) but most make the predictions based on ratings,retention ect and this website goes by the ratings or numbers, hence ” tvbythenumbers”.I see you have conspiracy theory about shows adjustments.You should look at the article Why your Favorite Shows are Adjusted up or Down on this site. Another reason people say it will be cancelled is simply because networks must cancel some shows to make room for new ones next season.

  • Xerophytes

    IMO, watching TV shows based on its possibility of getting renewed or cancelled is (filtered to not offend anyone). Every show deserve a shot, if you don’t like it, stop watching it. If you like it, continue watching it. I don’t want to be tied up with numbers game, I don’t watch TV like this: “oh I watch Jersey Shore, because I know it will get renewed next year”.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Well excuse me. I didn’t know being some bigshot running a website gave one the right to ignore freedom of speech. With all due respect, you are the epitome of what our government has become, sir.”

    When someone brings up “freedom of speech” on our site, there’s a 100% chance they’ll reference it incorrectly.

    And counting.

  • Mark Wood

    Danny94 & Ultima

    You can actual program (and in some cases extremely successfully) by putting shows together that don’t on paper have anything in common.

    Using the one of the forerunners of the CW, Gilmore Girls and Smallville were paired together, and in both cases to extremely strong ratings (at that time for the netlet), that success let the WB then start SPN out of Gilmore Girls, two shows that outside of Jared acting on both, has little in common. THey had Buffy paired with Felicity one year to great ratings success. Dawson’s Creek was paired with Charmed, both shows typically were in the top 4 for the net that year.

    Of course the WB had a few years of great (limited) success, but it was short lived. It did manage something that UPN never managed, but UPN never really tried to mix shows like the WB did, sticking with similar themed shows on various nights, with very few success.

  • June

    Robert you are correct about the wide margin over Jan-May. That’s why I was referring to late spring (when both shows came back in April), Hart was outperforming Secret Circle, I believe.
    I’m not sure what has more of an impact, the season’s average ratings or the spring’s average ratings, or even the late spring’s ratings. It’s certainly interesting to watch and guess!

  • gustavo

    Goodbye spoiled rich girl tv show:Gossip Girl and 90210 are both gone.

  • Ultima

    @Mark Wood
    You can actual program (and in some cases extremely successfully) by putting shows together that don’t on paper have anything in common.

    I agree completely. In this case though, I think the CW is going to try and set up three synergistic nights and Hart of Dixie will probably be left out of that. It’s a risk to move the show out of the 8pm timeslot, where it has a larger lead-in, and put it behind a freshman show; and it will certainly be their weakest option for a lead-in (excluding Fridays).

  • Immaculate

    “Between Daylight Saving Time and the generally better spring weather, primetime TV viewership declines from winter to spring to summer.”

    Perhaps, but please provide some evidence for this conclusion for past television seasons to stake such an all encompassing claim. I can see why DST (more light so people will stay out later) may have a correlative (causative is dubious) impact to declining ratings for earlier programming but not so much for later programming. Better weather may have more of an impact to people wanting to stay out later even at night. But, then if this is a general fact, why the heck would even networks consider this decline at all? There’s an all encompassing reason that affects all shows equally, so it should be entirely irrelevant.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @Robert,

    I must have missed the explanation for the reasoning btwn BB & H50. Then again, even though I read every post, I don’t come back during the week for every comment. IMO, both have the “same” # of episodes, the demo ratings, with a Friday factor figured in, are close to the same, not great but solid enough for at least push through for syndication sakes & H50 has a known huge syndication deal. Which leads me to say they should be the same if not H50 more certain. As far as bias goes, I doubt I’ll ever watch H50 but I’ve watched every BB, so I’m totes objective here.

    As far as CSI:NY being more “Probable” than Vegas/Golden Boy, long time readers can understand that is mostly based on “syndication”. Meaning it’s easier to get rid of New Shows than Veterans. Esp b/c if the ratings are already near cancellation #s during the first 24 or less episodes, the last 30-40 episodes to reach syndication will probably be dreadful.

    We “all” know that if Elementary really falls in it’s remaining episodes, that CSI:NY is first one to be renewed. TGW/TM will already be renewed in that case b/c the main reason they are “Bubble” is b/c there is enough reasoning that says one of them will be canceled/let go in favor of CSI:NY. But, CSI:NY still is most likely to be cancelled/let go, of the 3, that’s why it’s “Likely”.

    Since you say, and I agree, that CSI:NY has more chances than Vegas/Golden Boy, so in the 7 system, I’d make Golden Boy “Certain” & I’d really want to downgrade “Vegas” as well, b/c to renew Vegas means canceling both CSI:NY & one of TGW/TM, which I just don’t see happening. I do agree that CSI:NY is more “Likely” than it is “Bubble”. However, if you want to streamline the whole system, then lumping CSI:NY/GB/V altogether, does make more sense than upgrading CSI:NY to “Bubble”. As much as I personally want more CSI:NY, it’s status is much more “cancel”, than it is “bubble”, even though it has much more renewal chances than GB&V do.

    Also, along that same thought process, TGW&TM are much closer to “renewal” than they are “bubble”. The only realistic ways TGW or TM don’t get renewed is if CBS debuts 4 dramas instead of 3, or 3 dramas & a new comedy hour & of course if CSI:NY gets saved over one of them.

    Just an FYI, I’m a fan of all of CBS’s established scripted shows, save for H50, which I haven’t watched. Which means that technically, I don’t want new shows to succeed, unless CBS finds more hours in the day, which is not going to happen. But, in actuality, I’m not rooting for them to fail & since Elementary seems to be kicking CSI:NY out, not to mention CSI:NY is kicking itself out, then hopefully when I give Elementary a try come season 3, that I will like it.

  • Jonay

    People are soo disrespectful if they don’t have their way :/

  • were123

    @Jim
    It’s not about freedom of speech, it’s about being disrespectful to others. This is not a place to pick up a fight, you can disagree with others, but there’s no need to insult. People on the internet often feel like they are free to do that, and sure they are on most websites, but that doesn’t mean that they should! Being banned from a website for insulting seems fair

  • Lauren

    It’s funny how BATB fans are convincing themselves their ratings are good. A 0.5 on the demo with TVD for lead-in, that’s pretty hilarous.

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