Bubble Watch: 'Hart of Dixie' Likely to Be Renewed; 'Beauty and the Beast' and 'The Carrie Diaries' Remain in Doubt

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 10th, 2013

 

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart Of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart Of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty And The Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty And The Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty And The Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixie will be renewed than Hart of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty And The Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.)  I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Cult CW Certain or likely cancellation
Touch Fox Certain or likely cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Certain or likely cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Golden Boy CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Vegas CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Certain or likely cancellation
Deception NBC Certain or likely cancellation
The New Normal NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Smash NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Certain or likely renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Revenge ABC Certain or likely renewal
Suburgatory ABC Certain or likely renewal
Elementary CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hart of Dixie CW Certain or likely renewal
Nikita CW Certain or likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain or likely renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain or likely renewal
Nashville ABC Certain or likely renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain or likely renewal
Scandal ABC Certain or likely renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain or likely renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain or likely renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain or likely renewal
CSI CBS Certain or likely renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain or likely renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain or likely renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain or likely renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain or likely renewal
Glee Fox Certain or likely renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grimm NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain or likely renewal
Revolution NBC Certain or likely renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • outlawz

    lol some ppl here talk like they work for the networks

  • Jazz

    I am watching Community, Touch, Deception and Vegas. I think most of those may go away but I am hoping that at least 1 or 2 may show up next season.

    Debate is good, but when it quickly devolves it makes it harder and much less enjoyable for readers, who come here for information and thoughts, delusional and otherwise. Most probably never post.

  • BPKK

    @Bill Gorman

    “Good thing is that last year you were wrong about TSC likely to be renewed category and HOD to be cancelled”

    Although not likely to matter to the crazy, Robert was right on those two shows last season. I was the one that was wrong.

    Nikita was the show you both got wrong last year, correct? Was that because you weren’t aware of its international sales? If other people working in the industry have access to the financial reports, is it something that you guys could see too?

  • Bizarro

    Thanks Rob, I agree with everything you said. Four to five shows does seem like a lot to have next season. PLUS the CW will still need midseason replacements in place so that’s already six to seven shows. I do agree they could air ANTM late in the summer and let it finish in the fall like this season. So, I do see as of right now how Beauty has the upper hand to TCD. Now its a wait and see game of these two shows. Beauty or TCD could be the new Hart so their .5 for B&TB and .4 for TCD could be their lows. But we will just have to wait and see.
    @Brandy
    I agree with you, I’m happy that HOD is likely renewal on here and that B&TB is on the bubble again. If both of these shows are renewed in May it would make my day. But if Beauty goes lower well whatever then. I just don’t want another repeat of last year with the cancellation of Beauty (Ringer) and renewal of TCD (Nikita) I was so pissed lol!

  • Ultima

    @Immaculate
    Perhaps, but please provide some evidence for this conclusion for past television seasons to stake such an all encompassing claim.

    I’m not sure what kind of evidence you’re looking for. It’s an observation that I’ve made by looking at the ratings for literally hundreds of shows. Providing dozens of examples or compiling averages to illustrate my point will take far more effort than I’m willing to invest.

    If you don’t want to believe me, then just observe the ratings over the next two months and you’ll see it for yourself.

    But, then if this is a general fact, why the heck would even networks consider this decline at all? There’s an all encompassing reason that affects all shows equally, so it should be entirely irrelevant.

    Generally, yes; the relative rankings of shows typically does not change as a result of the spring declines. In this case, however, I don’t think B&B is competiting with another drama for a fall timeslot, I think it needs to justify a fall timeslot as opposed to some cheap reality filler.

    Its absolute ratings, probably 0.5s and 0.4s in the spring (following the highest rated show on the network) are unlikely to provide a positive answer to the question “Is this something we want on the network for three more seasons?”

    Last season, the CW renewed five shows with lower ratings (for the season) than The Secret Circle. Being in the top five on the network is simply not enough for a renewal. A show has to provide long-term value to the network and Beauty and the Beast doesn’t appear to have that potential.

  • Fake Me Out

    @Robert Seidman

    “… replaced the table above with a real-time beta test … there are valid criticisms of the approach and look forward to the feedback.”

    Me no like, Hulk smash. Will also miss the Scripted Cable Renew/Cancel Status posts … maybe bring it back as a once a month movie of the week?

    ymmv

    “Changes aren’t permanent. But change is” — Tom Sawyer by Rush

  • Roosterhead

    @Matt:

    “I think that its likely that by the end of the season, ‘Castle’ will be upgraded back to Certain Renewal by the end of the season Despite ‘Castle’s steady decline the entire season compared to last, it is going through its normal non-DWTS lead in era, during December-March, in which it does decline, but then rises back when DWTS is back.”

    While it’s true that Castle’s ratings in the fall were nothing to write home about, its ratings since January have been nearly identical to this same point last year. Much of that can be attributed to three factors: 1) The relative stability of the Castle audience 2) The slightly better lead in ratings of The Bachelor this year compared to last and 3) The relative weakness in the performance of CBS and NBC in the 10PM hour thus far this year.

    I don’t agree that Castle is steadily declining this year. I would contend that it did drop off at the beginning of the season and has plateaued. While that may be faint praise to be sure, it is praise nonetheless.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    In regards to Renewal/Cancel chances vs tv watching my thoughts:

    1. I don’t have a Nielsen box etc & I don’t actively engage in social media in order to try and somehow convince Nielsen box holders to watch particular shows.

    2. There are so many shows that I want to watch that are both on broadcast & cable & off the air that it will take me years, if ever to catch up.

    3. I get emotionally involved in the storylines of the characters & want to know at least in general how their lives most likely turn out.

    4. I will eventually get to Firefly (& Serenity) but cliff hanger/ unresolved storylines feel like I stopped reading a book b4 finishing it & in that respect, I really don’t like having a lot of unfinished things.

    5. If new shows were given a full season & that season could be treated like a short story or a much longer movie/mini series, then I’d be way more inclined to watch new shows.

    6. Since Jan 2012, I’ve picked up 8 (New/s2) shows, even though I was fed up with losing so many shows, like Memphis Beat & Dark Blue etc. However, I had my reasoning’s.

    Note: I basically watch anything on the 4 main networks that will make it to 80+ episodes, but that’s cause I genuinely like watching these shows, “sorry not sorry”.

    2 Broke Girls, I picked up this month, based on it being on CBS & it’s demo.
    Major Crimes, I picked up b/c it’s basically a continuation of The Closer.
    The New Normal, I picked up right away, based on Glee/Ryan Murphy & it’s topic.
    New Girl, I picked up this month, based on FOX needing it.
    Smash, I picked up right away, based on “Grown up Glee” & Katharine & Speilburg.
    Nashville, I picked up right away, based it felt like the 3rd Musical drama, countryfied.
    Person Of Interest, I picked up this month, based on CBS & it’s demo.
    Anger Management, I picked up this month, based on guaranteed episodes.

    I think I want to pick up Revolution, Following, Arrow, Go On & OUAT, Revenge, Scandal & Elementary. However, based on past one & done scifi/fantasy shows or NBC Comedy state or ABC’s ratings & reviews stating they are turning more into SOAPS than dramas, I have to wait.

    Besides which, I can watch these shows 10 20 years from now if I want to. Also, the sheer number of cable shows that I have yet to start watching & past shows no longer airing new episodes, even for decades that are on my to watch list. This all tells me that short lived shows, esp those with open endings don’t deserve my time. For instance, I would have wanted to check out Emily Owens, M.D. & The Mod Doctor but those books would remain not finished. Since, I read the R/C I & BW here @ TVBTN, I don’t have to get disappointed after I get invested in those books. I can focus reading books that do have endings or at least are long enough that once they end, I can realistically make up my own endings. This is probably also why I much prefer procedurals to soaps as they focus way more on the cases than the characters. While I do get attached to many of the characters in the procedurals, I don’t feel the need finish their lives, I know they will continue on doing their jobs until they don’t, just like everyone else. In the comedies, while they don’t live my life, at least each episode is fairly contained. For instance, I don’t really need to know if the gang from Community ever graduates, if they ever become productive members of society, or how their personal lives end up. With Soaps, it’s all about the character’s so you are naturally tied up with their lives & are invested into how their lives turn out. A cancellation expected early enough or not still hurts. If the show only lasts a few episodes or 1-2 seasons, the characters aren’t going to be as flushed out and well rounded so there will be a lot of what ifs not to mention if the writers weren’t given enough notice the who ends up with who & what do they make with their lives. SciFi/Fantasy shows are heavily storyline based with a lot of character development as well. Not only is it best to watch these shows in a row, binge style, they take more than a season or two to tell properly, otherwise, they should be billed as a short series or a movie from the start. When these shows end abruptly/too soon, you end up really invested in a storyline & yet you are not even 1/3 of the way through the book. That would be like stopping the Harry Potter Series b4 Book 1 even ends. So much more to tell & even if you did tell the writers to speed up & end book 1, all those missing chapters, due to the speed up, would be less complete. If going in, I knew we’d only get Book 1 of Harry Potter, I would def be wanting to watch that, just like I still plan on watching Firefly (& Serenity).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Nikita was the show you both got wrong last year, correct? Was that because you weren’t aware of its international sales? If other people working in the industry have access to the financial reports, is it something that you guys could see too?”

    We both were wrong on Nikita. Both giving it a slight likelihood of cancellation in the final guessing.

    That international sales chatter is completely anecdotal and unsubstantiated. Nobody in the public has “access to the financial reports”.

    Nikita was renewed because WB wanted to get it to four seasons for syndication purposes. I can’t speak for Robert, but I didn’t think the ratings were quite there for them to do that last season and was wrong.

  • samurai99

    @Jazz.

    Community should be safe thanks to the general failure of the rest of NBC’s lineup.

    As far as the TCD vs. BatB debate, I still think that TCD’s better retention and presumed lower cost might give it an outside shot at renewal.

  • Ultima

    @BPKK
    Was that because you weren’t aware of its international sales?

    I think people underestimated the CW’s tolerance for low ratings in order to push the show into syndication. I doubt international sales had much, if anything, to do with it. Also, by moving Nikita to 9pm, they at least had the cover of its decent A25-54 ratings.

    It will be renewed again, of course, as it’s too late to turn back now. It’s very unlikely any other shows (especially freshman) will be afforded the same tolerance that Nikita was, however.

  • Ultima

    @samurai
    TCD’s better retention

    TCD’s sub-100% retention is one of the CW’s biggest problems. If it can’t do better than the local synidcated programming before it, then why are the affiliates spending money to air CW programming in the first place?

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    @Ultima,

    You have access to “local syndicated programming” data?

    If so, what are they getting?

    In particular, I wonder about ABC 7pm aka right b4 ABCs most troublesome hour btwn Syndicated & Grey’s.

  • eridapo

    If CBS doesn’t pick up the Mentalist for next season given that it is one of those 3 bubble shows for the Network, is there a chance Warner will try to keep it alive on another Network (say NBC)?

    The Mentalist to me is one of those shows that already has a built in audience and a guarantee ratings level (1.8 demo and 9+ Million viewers). Sure those numbers are on CBS, but I don’t see it losing that much if it were to move to NBC.

  • Immaculate

    “I’m not sure what kind of evidence you’re looking for. It’s an observation that I’ve made by looking at the ratings for literally hundreds of shows. Providing dozens of examples or compiling averages to illustrate my point will take far more effort than I’m willing to invest.”

    Evidence that this is presently, or at least, relatively recently, a general pattern among shows. It’s something you claimed and it wasn’t an obvious one. It was an all encompassing one, which are the most difficult to evidence or prove. It seems that you are simply stating this from memory, and you may be right, but if you can’t provide the evidence or reason (which you didn’t do at first), you can’t expect others to take it face value, unless you’ve shown your credibility before which I have no way of knowing.

    “Generally, yes; the relative rankings of shows typically does not change as a result of the spring declines. In this case, however, I don’t think B&B is competiting with another drama for a fall timeslot, I think it needs to justify a fall timeslot as opposed to some cheap reality filler.”

    I don’t know what relevance this has.

    “Its absolute ratings, probably 0.5s and 0.4s in the spring (following the highest rated show on the network) are unlikely to provide a positive answer to the question “Is this something we want on the network for three more seasons?””

    If anyone has read my previous posts here, I give little credence to the “retentionist” argument. I see no motivation for someone to stay to watch a show the person is neutral about just because the person watches the show that is previous to it. The CW has had problems retaining the TVD audience for many years now. That’s because the TVD fan-base seems to be a large social media oriented one that likes to go online and discuss episodes after they air. It’s also probably the most competitive time on television for the major networks.

    “Last season, the CW renewed five shows with lower ratings (for the season) than The Secret Circle. Being in the top five on the network is simply not enough for a renewal. A show has to provide long-term value to the network and Beauty and the Beast doesn’t appear to have that potential.”

    I’m not sure what your point is with respect to his. Stating that five shows that had lower ratings than TSC got renewed doesn’t promote the argument that BatB will not be renewed. The only thing that is comparable between the two is that they share the same time slot post TVD. Executives don’t make decisions based on sharing the same time slot. They care about ratings, critical reviews, production costs, etc. only in so far as it affects the bottom line. As far as long term potential is concerned, Pedowitz said it does, maybe even using the same exact terms, back in January of this year. His word I will have to take at more face value than yours since he’s the main man at the network right now. Whether you consider him truthful or not is a moot point.

  • BPKK

    @eridapo “If CBS doesn’t pick up the Mentalist for next season given that it is one of those 3 bubble shows for the Network, is there a chance Warner will try to keep it alive on another Network (say NBC)?

    The Mentalist to me is one of those shows that already has a built in audience and a guarantee ratings level (1.8 demo and 9+ Million viewers). Sure those numbers are on CBS, but I don’t see it losing that much if it were to move to NBC.”

    Since Warners owns part of the CW, why couldn’t they put it on there? Even if it lost a third of its viewers and ratings, it would still be better than anything the CW currently has including its “hit” Arrow. Right now, reruns of TBBT on TBS do better than anything on the CW.

  • Mark Wood

    Anna And I guess Ultima

    This site on a few rare occasions ( 4 times I think just this season) has posted the 7 and 730 breakdown of the national syndication average, that included Total Viewers, Adults 18-49, adult 18-34 and w 18-34.

    Ultima, currently only Arrow and VD in the 8pm hour best the data that we have seen for the 7 and 730 averages.

    The average range that we have seen .7 to .9 in adults 18-49, adults 18-34.

    Hart of Dixie is barely averaging an improvement at least in w 18-34, but outside of Arrow and VD its the only demo segment that a Monday, Tuesday or Friday show is besting.

    The Friday numbers for those who are curious I have seen have been .7 and one .6 (during a late spring date), meaning that for example Nikita retention rate is roughly the same be when it was paired with VD, when it was paired with Top Model and when it was in the 8pm hour. It also explains why CD was moved the 8pm slot over 90210, due to getting a significantly better lead in (where it also loses a lot). It also explains why 90210 was given the 8pm slot over the end season of Gossip Girl as 90210′s future at that time was still a possible ongoing series.

    I think I even saved some of the date’s that this information was provided so that if you don’t believe me you can search the history of this site to find it. I will go so if I can find any of them.

  • Mark Wood

    I have one, that I found its from somewhere in OCt (I didn’t save the date portion of the data, when I copied it from this site).

    I do stand corrected though as it only includes the 7:30 half hour, but as it does include the the other half hours, if you were so motivated you could find the specific day.

    (in order of adults 18-34, women 18-34, and adults 18-49

    7:30 – 8 (which would be the national syndication)
    .8, .9, .9
    8 – 8:30
    .6, .9, .6 (big drop off, roughly 50% in all but w 18-34) in just the first half hour.
    8:30-9
    .7, 1.0, .6

    9 – 9:30
    .5, .9, .5
    9:30 – 10
    .5, .8, .5.

    Remember HUT levels are increasing with each hour at least until 9 or 9:30.

    The average for the CW that night was
    .6 adults 18-34 (maintaining 75% of its national syndicated lead in)
    .9 women 18-34 (no lose over the national syndication, even with a larger possible audience)
    .5 adults 18-49 (only maintaining 55% of its national syndicated lead in).

    The true test for the CW is going to be convincing the local affiliates to resign, otherwise the CW as a broadcast network will be gone in what 2 years?

  • Brandy

    Samuri99, you think CD is cheap to make?Shooting in NY, the 80s fashion ect. It’s had three 0.4 s before the DST and real spring weather.CW has never renewed a freshman with 0.4s before.The fact it’s ending it’s the season before May Iis not good neither is CW moving away from that type of show to genre shows.BaTB dosent have great ratings/retention either but is reported/rumored to sell well internationally,be cheap to produce ,do well online and is a genre show and has a higher season ratings average.Now both may cancelled, but BaTB has a edge over CD.
    @Ultima, have you seen the reports of BaTB doing well overseas and being cheap to produce and doing well online?(first one is a real article about being sold for three seasons in UK.Last two are fan reasons).If it really it cheap and does well overseas, I wouldn’t be suprised if it was renewed despite low ratings( like Dealine reporting Nikita would be renewed due to strong international sales last May). & online(part of the reason HoD was renewed Deadline said.Pedowitz even praised its DVr/online/onDemand presence at TCAS).

  • Paul

    Go VEGAS!

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