When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.
Hart of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed
As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries.
Beauty and the Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble
Beauty and the Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.
Of the possible scenarios among Hart of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart of Dixie will be renewed than Hart of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).
Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.
It's a fact that with that Beauty and the Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.
But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!
I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.
CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.
The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!
My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.) I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23||ABC||Canceled|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Canceled|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|Do No Harm||NBC||Canceled|
|Red Widow||ABC||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Cult||CW||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Touch||Fox||Certain or likely cancellation|
|1600 Penn||NBC||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Certain or likely cancellation|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Golden Boy||CBS||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Vegas||CBS||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Deception||NBC||Certain or likely cancellation|
|The New Normal||NBC||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Smash||NBC||Certain or likely cancellation|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Good Wife, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Mentalist, The||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||On The Bubble|
|Carrie Diaries, The||CW||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Go On||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Castle||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Revenge||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Suburgatory||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Elementary||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||Certain or likely renewal|
|Nikita||CW||Certain or likely renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Grey's Anatomy||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Middle, The||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Nashville||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Scandal||ABC||Certain or likely renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|CSI||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain or likely renewal|
|Glee||Fox||Certain or likely renewal|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Grimm||NBC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Parenthood||NBC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Revolution||NBC||Certain or likely renewal|
|Big Bang Theory, The||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Vampire Diaries, The||CW||Renewed|
|Mindy Project, The||Fox||Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Final Season Finished|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season Finished|
|Fringe||Fox||Final Season Finished|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season Finished|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|