Bubble Watch: 'Hart of Dixie' Likely to Be Renewed; 'Beauty and the Beast' and 'The Carrie Diaries' Remain in Doubt

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 10th, 2013

 

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Hart Of Dixie Likely (Pretty Much Certain) to Be Renewed

As it heads into a one-month hiatus, I've upgraded Hart Of Dixie to a likely renewal based both on recent ratings and relative proximity to syndication versus Beauty And The Beast and The Carrie Diaries.

Beauty And The Beast Upgraded Back to the Bubble

Beauty And The Beast hasn't aired a new episode since the last Bubble Watch, so the upgrade is completely about The Carrie Diaries falling the last two weeks.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The Beast I give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixie will be renewed than Hart of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixie and that’s a pretty simple call considering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty and the Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringer repeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.)  I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
666 Park Avenue ABC Canceled
Don't Trust The B---- in Apartment 23 ABC Canceled
Last Resort ABC Canceled
Zero Hour ABC Canceled
Made In Jersey CBS Canceled
Partners CBS Canceled
Emily Owens, M.D. CW Canceled
Ben And Kate Fox Canceled
The Mob Doctor Fox Canceled
Animal Practice NBC Canceled
Do No Harm NBC Canceled
Red Widow ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Cult CW Certain or likely cancellation
Touch Fox Certain or likely cancellation
1600 Penn NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Guys With Kids NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Up All Night NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Body Of Proof ABC Certain or likely cancellation
Happy Endings ABC Certain or likely cancellation
CSI: NY CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Golden Boy CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Vegas CBS Certain or likely cancellation
Cleveland Show, The Fox Certain or likely cancellation
Deception NBC Certain or likely cancellation
The New Normal NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Smash NBC Certain or likely cancellation
Last Man Standing ABC On The Bubble
Malibu Country ABC On The Bubble
Good Wife, The CBS On The Bubble
Mentalist, The CBS On The Bubble
Rules of Engagement CBS On The Bubble
Beauty and the Beast CW On The Bubble
Carrie Diaries, The CW On The Bubble
Community NBC On The Bubble
Go On NBC On The Bubble
Whitney NBC On The Bubble
Castle ABC Certain or likely renewal
Neighbors, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Revenge ABC Certain or likely renewal
Suburgatory ABC Certain or likely renewal
Elementary CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Certain or likely renewal
Hart of Dixie CW Certain or likely renewal
Nikita CW Certain or likely renewal
Law & Order: SVU NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parks & Recreation NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grey's Anatomy ABC Certain or likely renewal
Middle, The ABC Certain or likely renewal
Modern Family ABC Certain or likely renewal
Nashville ABC Certain or likely renewal
Once Upon A Time ABC Certain or likely renewal
Scandal ABC Certain or likely renewal
2 Broke Girls CBS Certain or likely renewal
Blue Bloods CBS Certain or likely renewal
Criminal Minds CBS Certain or likely renewal
CSI CBS Certain or likely renewal
Mike & Molly CBS Certain or likely renewal
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Certain or likely renewal
Person Of Interest CBS Certain or likely renewal
Two and a Half Men CBS Certain or likely renewal
Glee Fox Certain or likely renewal
Chicago Fire NBC Certain or likely renewal
Grimm NBC Certain or likely renewal
Parenthood NBC Certain or likely renewal
Revolution NBC Certain or likely renewal
Big Bang Theory, The CBS Renewed
How I Met Your Mother CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries, The CW Renewed
American Dad Fox Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Following, The Fox Renewed
Mindy Project, The Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
Raising Hope Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Private Practice ABC Final Season Finished
Gossip Girl CW Final Season Finished
90210 CW Canceled/Final Season
Fringe Fox Final Season Finished
30 Rock NBC Final Season Finished
The Office NBC Final Season

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  • Dave

    @The End

    I second that! RSH is awesome! I love it when he argues with Brandy. :)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Holly: Re DST effect, that’s pretty much what I think. At some point, the overall relative drop effects the show’s profitability if it’s already marginal. This is because the network knows that the “spring effect” will likely carry over to the fall ratings if renewed.

    Because some of those people who just stop watching in the spring due to other activities never come back and aren’t likely to be replaced in the fall due to the general season to season loss of viewers. It’s just the way it is.

    And it’s probably impossible to judge just how much of a spring loss is due to DST vs other factors. And it’s probably not worth it to try. Just look at the numbers as if it didn’t matter what the cause is.

    The End: As I’ve mentioned, if one is going to argue for a case, you need reasons and usually that requires more typing than just “I think the show will be renewed because it’s good on Monday.”

    Also, I like the sound of my own voice – er, sight of my own words! :-)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Dave: Yes, I’ll admit it. I’m awesome! I’m a legend in my own mind! :-)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Actually, it’s the pathetic level of my adversaries that elevates me to godhood! :-)

  • Immaculate

    Sorry, but I don’t buy that reasoning. Now all I am reading is a bunch of speculative nonsense concerning why networks pay attention to the DST “effect” after it was countered with an effective argument. A show dropping by .1 point due to an effect that cuts across all shows could be argued by network execs to possible buyers as standard procedure and shouldn’t entail any type of reduction in cost of ad space. In fact, it would be highly more likely that they would use increases in points during this time to sell at a higher price if the DST “effect” is true.

  • Claudia

    Reading some posters in here make me so sad, of how pathetic they sound, seriously, especially the ones bashing shows you don’t even watch or like because you “think are crap” to watch. Most of the shows in the CW are bad quality and cheap, they cant really be compared to shows in other networks, but hey, you like what you like. Just respect what other people watch and like, I’m not a school girl, single twenty something or someone without a life, stop stereotyping Beasties, you have no idea! I like BatB because I like the love story, the acting and the writing (RESPECT), what you like or what you watch is not of my concern I could care less what you guys like but I wont be hating on you because you like something I don’t, its pure tyranny and bullying. None of you are network executives to know the complexity of renewing or not a show, we don’t know all the information behind a show, in fact we know the 3 top rated shows already had a renewal confirmation, therefore, all the other ones are in the same category if not they would have been announced already. And so far I enjoy the show and if it stays for more seasons well, be it and if not I wont be crying a river or hating on other shows or people’s likes.

  • HOlly

    @Immaculate,

    BatB is already on the edge with its ratings. Yes, a further drop could cost it renewal. Shows cost money to produce. If a show can’t bring in enough advertising revenue to offset that, the network isn’t going to keep spending money on it. DST and the rest of the bingo excuses won’t make a bit of difference.

  • Immaculate

    @Holly

    I know how profit margins work, and what increases and decreases them in the industry. But, obviously you failed to ascertain the point I made about the advertising revenue and the so-called DST “effect”. It may not be true, but it’s just as good a counter argument to the speculation that oh, a show dropped a tenth of a point, all of a sudden the network can’t charge the same amount for ads previous to it and so the show must now be cancelled, as if the network is locked into charging for ad space at certain points without consideration of time period in the year.

  • HOlly

    @Immaculate,

    OK, do you think an advertiser commits to paying a certain fee for each time their ad runs on a show regardless of what ratings that show got? For example, do you think an advertiser that bought space during Revenge for the season pays the same for the 10/28 episode when it got a 2.6 as they do for the 2/10 episode when it got a 1.4?

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Claudia: “Most of the shows in the CW are bad quality and cheap, they cant really be compared to shows in other networks”

    Actually they can. I’d put TVD up against pretty much anything on any other network. Granted, MOST of the shows are crap. But that’s true of a lot of other networks. Which is why most new shows get canceled after their first season.

    “I like BatB because I like the love story, the acting and the writing (RESPECT)”

    No one cares about that here. What we care about here is when BATB fans come here PREDICTING the show will be renewed without a shred of actual EVIDENCE based on the RATINGS. The same applies even more to TCD fans.

    “None of you are network executives to know the complexity of renewing or not a show, we don’t know all the information behind a show”

    Which most of us here acknowledge. Nonetheless there is HISTORY here. This site’s predictions are 98% accurate. So when people here say a show is likely to be canceled or renewed, we’re very likely to be right – IF we’re basing it on the RATINGS and known factors like proximity to syndication. Everything else is what is speculation.

    “in fact we know the 3 top rated shows already had a renewal confirmation, therefore, all the other ones are in the same category if not they would have been announced already”

    Not completely true. Many shows that are doomed are never announced as such. Shows that are renewed primarily due to syndication aren’t necessarily announced early either.

    In any event, that doesn’t make the ratings any less relevant to predicting the end result.

    “And so far I enjoy the show and if it stays for more seasons well, be it and if not I wont be crying a river or hating on other shows or people’s likes.”

    Nice for you. Would be nice if everyone else followed that policy. Good luck with that! :-)

  • madeleine Boleslawski

    Even though BATB is really getting exciting, it is still competing with strong already established shows: White Collar, Grey’s Anatomy, Person of Interest and American Idol. I love Beauty and the Beast. People that I talk to don’t even realize what the show is about, and once I tell them, they want to watch it. It hasn’t receive good advertising, and it was placed in a bad spot. I hope that CW will give it another shot next year, and put it in a better spot. If they renew Hart of Dixie which story line is not as strong and exciting as BATB, they are making a mistake.

  • HV

    I am wondering why you combined “likey renewal” and “certain renewal” and then “likey cancelation” and “certain cancelation”. Do you have a real reason for doing it? How does it benefit you in any way.
    I like having the five seperate levels of renewal/cancelation (certain cancel, likely cancel, bubble, likely renew, certain renew) because it really shows weather the show is close to the bubble or far from the bubble. Also, I am wondering if the renew/cancel for each network will be changed in some way as well? (Please say no!)

  • Tom

    I too missed all the fun.

    I still think the demise of both BATB and TCD is less than certain.

    (Again, I assume HOD is a lock to return. Halfway to syndication, ratings are okay, Friday is opening up in 14/15 if room nowhere else.)

    First off, in the best case, CW only has six hours of next Fall set (VD, Arrow, Supernatural, HOD, Nikita, ANTM), and only 5 in Spring*.

    Would CW be willing to go with 4 new shows in Fall? It’s possible, but not that likely. Since the CW stopped being responsible for Sundays, in Fall they’ve launched:
    2008: 3 shows (90210, Privileged, Stylista)
    2009: 3 shows (Melrose Place, The Beatiful Life, The Vampire Diaries)
    2010: 2 shows (Hellcats, Nikita)
    2011: 4 shows (Hart of Dixie, Ringer, H8R, The Secret Circle)
    2012: 3 shows (Emily Owens, Beauty and the Beast, Arrow)

    Or out of 5 years, they’ve only launched 4 shows in Fall once – not coincidentally, the year Mark Pedowitz took over.

    Well, maybe CW has decided to go aggressive this season with pilots, and has enough to cover 5 spring slots* and then some (for potential spring spackle)? Nope, CW has 8 scripted pilots this year, the same as last (which produced 5 series orders).

    Or to review, the only way CW doesn’t hold their nose and keep one of BATB/TCD is if you think they are willing to go with 4 Fall premieres (again, they’ve only done that with a new president), will succeed with pilots at a rate higher than they have in the past (if they need 5 for spring plus spackle), and/or can pull reality filler out of nowhere when needed (if anything, the CW has been getting more careful with reality, going from the ultra-spackle of Fly Girls to putting out press for Who’s Line months in advance).

    It is possible. I just can’t lean that way, much less assume it.

    *I’d go one further than Robert: I don’t think CW will put out an upfront schedule that has a repeat slot in Spring either – at least on paper. (In reality, that Friday show will almost certainly end up being a Spring launch of a failed Fall premiere slot.)

  • BPKK

    @Richard Steven Hack
    “TCD – which has NO CHANCE of renewal due to pathetic ratings barely halfway into its first season. ANYONE who believes TCD has ANY shot at renewal is simply delusional and operating entirely on some emotional agenda relative to the show (either they like the show or they’ve attached themselves to the notion that the show MUST survive because they think it must.)”

    TVLine has TCD as “Could go either way,” Entertainment Weekly as “Kinda sorta likely to continue. Kinda” and this site as On the Bubble or Toss Up. Are you saying that all of these people are delusional since none are currently declaring TCD to be as dead as you say it is?

    Although, moving BATB up to Bubble because of Carrie’s last two ratings without moving Carrie down to Likely Cancellation doesn’t make much sense to me and if Beauty was moved down 2 weeks ago because of two 0.5 than I don’t see why Carrie wouldn’t be downgraded with three 0.4s

    To compare, TVLINE has BATB and Nikita as “Could go either way” and Hart as “A Safe bet” while Entertainment Weekly has Beauty as “Likely to continue,” Nikita “a wild card” and Hart as “reasonably safe.”

  • Dani

    Batb is crap, they should stick to The Carrie Diaries. It’s superior quality wise and it starts a night, contrary to Batb, lead-in dependent (ask Go On, etc. if a lead-in isn’t important, IT IS).

  • Ultima

    @Dani
    it starts a night, contrary to Batb, lead-in dependent

    Are you suggesting that the local affiliates of the CW air a test pattern prior to primetime instead of synidicated programming that typically gets better ratings than the CW’s primetime lineup?

  • Macmitch

    Glad to see that Beauty and the Beast is back on the Bubble. Hopefully this will soon change to “Likely to be renewed” We are confident that the Mar 14 episode is going to be the beginning of the ratings increasing drastically. This show is highly underrated and I encourage everyone to watch this incredible show.

  • Lauren

    @madeleine Boleslawski

    “If they renew Hart of Dixie which story line is not as strong and exciting as BATB, they are making a mistake.”

    That’s YOUR opinion! BATB fans don’t understand their show won’t be more renewed if they bash Hart Of Dixie.

    And there is no mistake when you cancel a show that lost the half of its audience in 10 episodes.

    Sometimes, BATB fans ask why their show is hated by many people. They are the main reason.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    BPKK: “TVLine has TCD as “Could go either way,” Entertainment Weekly as “Kinda sorta likely to continue. Kinda” and this site as On the Bubble or Toss Up. Are you saying that all of these people are delusional since none are currently declaring TCD to be as dead as you say it is?”

    The only reason this site has TCD on the bubble is the alleged competition between it, BATB and HoD. Based on the ratings alone, the show has no chance. The assumption – and I continue to insist it is only an assumption – is that the CW will not debut four new shows. But as Tom showed above, they did in fact do so the year Pedowitz took over. I believe they will do it again this year.

    Based on the ratings, they SHOULD do it, at least.

    “Although, moving BATB up to Bubble because of Carrie’s last two ratings without moving Carrie down to Likely Cancellation doesn’t make much sense to me and if Beauty was moved down 2 weeks ago because of two 0.5 than I don’t see why Carrie wouldn’t be downgraded with three 0.4s”

    I would agree with that. I think both should be at least at Bubble status, and preferably Likely Cancellation. I just could give BATB the benefit of the doubt RIGHT NOW due to its season average still being above .6. I just don’t think it will hold that average over the next eight episodes.

    “To compare, TVLINE has BATB and Nikita as “Could go either way” and Hart as “A Safe bet” while Entertainment Weekly has Beauty as “Likely to continue,” Nikita “a wild card” and Hart as “reasonably safe.””

    Those predictors don’t seem to be basing their predictions on anything but guessing. This site works off of ratings and has a 98% prediction rate. Forget those other sites.

    Nikita is a lock due to syndication. It would never have been renewed with a .5 season average in season two otherwise. TCD won’t be renewed because it’s that low already in season one – in fact, barely half way through season one. So there’s NO chance it gets renewed with that sort of crap rating in its first season. There’s just no rational reason because there clearly isn’t decent ad revenue and there’s no shot at syndication until it does decently in a second season.

    The bottom line remains: A show has to do “decent” ratings – meaning for the CW around .6 or higher – to get a season two. Then it has to do at least .5 to get two more seasons for syndication.

    Of course, I suppose it’s possible that if the CW season average for all shows keeps dropping year to year, things might change. But at that point one has to ask how are they getting ANY ad revenue if they’re renewing shows at .5 in their first seasons for multiple season. It just doesn’t make any sense even allowing for the CW “spin” about “alternative revenue streams”.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Macmitch: “We are confident that the Mar 14 episode is going to be the beginning of the ratings increasing drastically.”

    Based on what? Without a reason your “confidence” could well be based on nothing but a large dose of DMT. :-)

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