ABC: 'Last Man Standing' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


miss-you-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Happy Endings :oops: 0.60
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.64
Red Widow :oops: 0.66
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.72
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.91
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.95
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.95
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.07

-
The Cancellation Bear is going to miss catching Last Man Standing this season. With ratings on Friday averaging > 70% of ABC's overall spring average, it's time to move Last Man Standing to "likely to be renewed" status. There's not a lot of experience with drama renewals on Fridays, but that relative ratings level is well above what other networks have renewed Friday shows before. As for Malibu Country, I think its situation is still uncertain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • zerg

    Nice to see LMS likely renewal, MC will be cancelled..

    I guess abc is expecting that Nashville will rise like Scandal did this season..but I don’t think is possible, abc will waste the Wednesday 10pm slot..

    The SHIELD most probably will end up on Thursday at 8 pm and then will be moved, after Grey’s ending, at 9pm ; ofc only if is a BIG hit

  • lisa

    Last Man Standing has potential. I don’t like the themes sometimes, and I don’t like the replacement daughter and her baby daddy. Tim Allen and the two younger daughters are great, though.

  • JJF

    Nashville will be this season’s pity renewal. Maybe they should move it to Sundays @10PM after Revenge and launch a new show on Wednesday nights. Tuesday night is also in need of something big.

  • Douglas from Brazil

    Why Suburgatory has more chances to be renewed than Revenge?
    The Suburgatory ratings are good when it pair with all-new Modern Family as lead-in.Makes no sense to me or am I wrong?

  • George

    Move Neighbors and Suburgatory to Fridays 9 and 9:30
    Shark Tank to sunday at 7 pm and AFV to Thursday at 8pm

  • Carmen

    @ Lisa
    “Last Man Standing has potential. I don’t like the themes sometimes, and I don’t like the replacement daughter and her baby daddy. Tim Allen and the two younger daughters are great, though”

    I pretty much agree and would go a little further to say they could get rid of the baby daddy immediately.
    They let the older daughter go because she looked too young to have the (advanced 5 years older) kid. That was a bad move in the broad scope of things.

  • rob60990

    ABC can easily cancel MC and replace it. They have a John Leguizamo multi-cam family comedy in development that could easily replace it but I think it will get a 13 episode renewal if it can hold its 1.3 this week and potentially rise for its finale.

  • Karen Pac

    I would absolutely prefer Malibu Country to the Neighbors. (Which I dont watch) I Love Malibu Country and seriously hope ABC gives it another season! Come on ABC!!!! Please renew Malibu Country! Its actually the only reason our family started watching LMS. Malibu Country has one of the best group of actors anywhere and its the only reason I even tune in on Fridays! Save Malibu Country!

  • Chris

    @rob60990 Do you really think John Leguizamo can hold his own in a sitcom? I doubt it and same goes for that other multi cam ABC has; Divorce. I mean where would ABC even put that on its schedule? I have no clue. It’s not a family sitcom and its multi cam. ABC is best sticking with Malibu Country and if they really want to expand, The Neighbors and Suburgatory have spots on Fridays. ABC could do TGIF 2 hours for half the season and then bring back or move Shark Tank from another night to Fridays making TGIF 1 hour. Or Suburgatory could stay on Wednesdays and they could do The Neighbors and Malibu Country as half season shows. I’d really like to see 2 hours though.

  • Jens M.

    The retention for MC seems pretty good out of LMS, so if LMS is safe its odd to think MC is surely gone. It would surprise me actually.

    I think both shows could pick up next season as many multicams seem to do when they have a consisten audience early on. Clearly both LMS and MC have enough longterm potential.

    Also, I don’t believe ABC puts much into advertising for either sitcom, so that only makes the shows more likely to stay given their ratings. And they both essentially receive entertainment media blackouts.

    As for replacing MC, I don’t see much on the slate that would pull in 1.3 on a Friday consistently. I’m guessing that Happy Ending will rocl a .7 by the time they finish their Friday runs, and this is a show that got non-stop media love and promotion…

  • Davis

    PREDICTION

    Sunday
    AFHV
    SHIELD (new)
    OUAT
    Gothica (new)

    Monday
    DWTS
    Nashville

    Tuesday
    DWTS
    Revenge
    Castle

    Wednesday
    The Middle
    Suburgatory
    Modern Family
    Middle Age Rage (new)
    Venice (new)

    Thursday
    Shark Tank
    Greys
    Scandal

    Friday
    LMS
    Super Fun Night (new)
    Malibu Country
    The Neighbors
    20/20

    MIDSEASON:
    BIG THUNDER
    MIXOLOGY
    BETRAYAL
    DOUBT
    DIVORCE: A LOVE STORY

  • HV

    About “Last Man Standing”: it’s about time!

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Jonay: “If Body of Proof’s ratings recover like it did last year can we expect a renewal???”

    No, for two reasons:

    1) It’s not going to recover from a 1.2 to a 2.0. Highly unlikely. It DID recover from 1.4 last season but only for the last three episodes and it’s not clear why.

    2) This season appears to be worse than last season in terms of the show’s quality.

    Plus the lead character is so terminally unlikeable that the show needs to be canceled. I might sleep with Dana Delany – but I damn sure wouldn’t with Meaghan! :-)

    Also note that this season ABC’s average rating was 2.3. While this might help BoP if it regains a 2,0 season average, a 1.2 season average won’t work. Its first season average a 2.3 which was fine. Currently BoP after three episodes – about twenty five percent of its run – is doing a 1.23 season average.

    It’s doomed unless it does recover at least to a 1.8 or higher season average and preferably a 2.0.

  • Scifibookguy

    I sure wish Red Widow was getting better ratings. I really like that show, and don’t want to see it canceled.

  • Em J

    WOOOHOOOOO GO CASTLE!!!!!!!!! I am SO glad that it’s got 5 toothy smiley faces they are so cute! You better be correct I still have this bloody little bit of doubt that Castle won’t be renewed!

  • Kate

    It’s so great to finally see all those smiling green faces next to Castle!

  • alvar

    Last Man Standing has been incredibly consistent on Friday nights. Malibu Country has been more volatile and I think renewal will really depend on what goes down with other comedy renewals/pilots.

  • SJ

    I think both Friday sitcoms will be renewed and ABC will go for a two-hour block on Fridays. It’s bound to do better than the one on Tuesdays. ABC could do this next season:

    Monday

    8pm-10pm – DWTS / The Bachelor / DWTS
    10pm – New Drama

    DWTS isn’t what it used to be, but at the very least it and The Bachelor could provide a stable support to a new show launching there. ABC would be wise to go with another procedural there, now that it’s looking like Body of Proof is going to get cancelled.

    Tuesday

    8pm – Shark Tank
    9pm – DWTS Results / New Reality / DWTS Results
    10pm – Castle

    It’s high time ABC moved Castle to shore up some of their shakier time slots. Tuesdays have been a disaster for ABC for years now. But with three veteran shows on the night, they could finally see some good results here. Shark Tank can help launch a new reality show in the winter that will hopefully do well enough to come back each year between the DWTS cycles.

    Wednesday

    8pm – The Middle
    8:30pm – New Comedy
    9pm – Modern Family
    9:30pm – New Comedy
    10pm – Nashville

    Two new comedies launching out of ABC’s only bona fide comedy hits. Also, with syndication backing this fall, they should grow even more. Both TM and MF could open with hourlong episodes and hopefully boost Nashville.

    Thursday

    8pm – New Drama (Shield)
    9pm – Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm – Scandal

    Here we go again… a new drama on Thursdays at 8pm. In an earlier version of this fantasy schedule I had Shark Tank moving there, but I think it’s better if it returned to its original Tuesday time slot, as that day has two holes to fill and Thursday just has this one. Shield (they really should change that title to avoid confusion with the Shawn Ryan drama) fits the “male-skewing, cancelled-after-13-episodes-or-less” bill.

    Friday

    8pm – Last Man Standing
    8:30pm – Malibu Country
    9pm – The Neighbors
    9:30pm – Suburgatory
    10pm – 20/20

    Just move TN and SUB to Fridays and launch a two-hour block. Run the shows until they reach syndication and then, if it works, keep adding new shows to the line-up. A rating of 1.2 and over should be considered successful enough by Friday standards.

    Saturday (after football):

    8pm – Shark Tank (R)
    9pm – Primetime: What Would You Do?
    10pm – Primetime: Nightline

    Sunday

    7pm – America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8pm – Once Upon a Time
    9pm – Revenge
    10pm – New Drama (Venice)

    Like I mentioned, two 11-episode strips for Once, Revenge and Venice (fits the whole good-vs-evil thing ABC has going on the night), air all three HHOF movies in January back to back or just push them to Saturdays and air reruns in January and February. It’s what NBC does every single year regardless of sweeps. Better to take the hit for 7-8 weeks than weakening some of their strongest programs.

    Cancelled: Happy Endings (at least on ABC), Red Widow, Body of Proof, How to Live with Your Parents, Family Tools, The Taste, Bet on Your Baby, Splash, Wife Swap, Celebrity Wife Swap (as well as any other reality nonsense that aired/has yet to air this season that I might have forgotten).

  • Ryne

    @TV#1

    How to live with your parents hasn’t even debuted yet and you have it on fall schedule for next year? Really???

  • HV

    @SJ
    The one thing I really don’t like with your schedule is Suburgatory on Friday @ 9:30. I think it should remain in its original Wednesday @ 8:30 slot. Also, do you really believe that there is no chance for HTLWYP?

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures