ABC: 'Last Man Standing' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


miss-you-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):


Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Happy Endings :oops: 0.60
Body Of Proof :cry: :cry: 0.62
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country (F) :| :| :| 0.64
Red Widow :oops: 0.66
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.72
The Neighbors :) :) :) :) 0.91
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.95
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.95
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Suburgatory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.38
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.07

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The Cancellation Bear is going to miss catching Last Man Standing this season. With ratings on Friday averaging > 70% of ABC's overall spring average, it's time to move Last Man Standing to "likely to be renewed" status. There's not a lot of experience with drama renewals on Fridays, but that relative ratings level is well above what other networks have renewed Friday shows before. As for Malibu Country, I think its situation is still uncertain.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Fred

    Are the previews for How To Live With Your Parents, that terrible?
    I think it looks kinda cute. ABC could sure use another hit sitcom .

  • Sara

    SHIELD is going to anchor Tuesday. Look at what pilots they ordered. At least two to four other pilots are potentially male schewing (the returned, reckless, Influence, Spy). Tuesday is the only night that could be made into a night for guys on ABC.

  • Lookin’ at Numbers

    You know, I’m not certain either LMS or MC are guaranteed another season. But I don’t think the cancellation of either/both is a foregone conclusion either.

    Season-to-date:
    LMS = 1.5 | 6.825M
    MC = 1.3 | 6.146M (87-90% retention)

    Yes, ABC can pair The Taste with Shark Tank on Friday nights. The pairing, coupled with a newsmagazine, can rate just as well. I just wonder about the longterm profitability, given that scripted fare licenses internationally and into syndication far more easily/better than unscripted.

    Also, while I know the products are vastly different, examine MC against “Nashville,” which the network spent a fortune marketing and which has benefited from significant media attention, a bigger lead-in and a higher HUT-level night.

    Season-to-date:
    Nash= 1.9 | 6.064M
    MC = 1.3 | 6.146M

    If I’m ABC, I wouldn’t be so quick to set “Malibu” out to sea…

  • Ankit Dasgupta

    Revenge Will Be Renewed For season 3 ! it has to be ! no doubt in that . the Most gripping Drama Series ,Audience Have Noticed ! Unlike Other . I loved MISSING ,but couldnt survive to American Idol Last Year ! But Revenge And OUAT Are being Renewed ! Ppl All Over The World See These Shows ! ABC Should not Cancel Them Especially Not REVENGE !

  • Nick L

    Suburgatory needs to go. Its funny, but the ratings are pretty bad. Make room for new shows. That and Nashville, Body of Proof, Revenge. They are dead weight now. I love them, but ABC needs to shake things up, and im ok with that.

  • Jordan

    @Lookin’ at Numbers

    So you want to replace two sitcoms that are averaging a 1.5 and 1.3 (consistently) on a Friday with a show that just closed out with a 1.2 on a Tuesday? I’ve never seen a shows ratings improve by switching to Friday, unless you are assuming the taste breaks all mhistory? What logic would replace a 1.4 comedy hour currently on a Friday with a 1.2/Tuesday show (means probably a .9 on Friday)? Also, you have to like that LMS and MC though occassionaly dip always tend to go back up again. The Taste just falls and falls and falls…

  • Judy912

    Thrilled to see ‘Castle’ with five green smilely faces. I understand on February 5th ABC requested an additional episode of Castle to finish off the fifth season of the series. Please ABC renew CASTLE for next season and keep it right were it is….Mondays at 10 PM.

  • Meliwa

    I still see Malibu Country on the Bubble List, but I’m thinking it’s more likely to be renewed than cancelled with the now-almost-certain renewal of LMS. In fact I really don’t see a reason for ABC to switch programming around on Fridays at all. So I’m thinking LMS continues at 8, either MC or a new sitcom at 8:30, Shark Tank/What Would You Do? at 9, and of course 20/20 at 10.

  • Fred

    @Nick L

    Too drastic for ABC to let go of all those dramas at once. Too many p****d off fans.
    Revenge is finally starting to perk up creatively and in the the ratings so it will be renewed for a 3rd season but probably in another slot .
    Nashville might be making $$ for ABC because of the music . Plus it does have potential to grow into a hit like Scandal.

    Body of Proof is most likely to be axed. However I read somewhere that there are tax credits involved. So it may be profitable . In addition BOP seems like a good candidate for syndication . Procedurals usually do well.

  • Fred

    Cont….

    As for Suburgatory, it does well enough to be renewed. Perhaps as a midseason replacement after ABC tries a multitude of new sitcoms. Obviously not all of the new shows will work.
    I wouldn’t call some of the shows you mentioned DEAD WEIGHT more like middling performers.
    Now NBC has lots of Dead Weight. Especially sitcoms .

  • Lookin’ at Numbers

    @Jordan- I didn’t say that at all. If you review my comments, you’ll see I think the sitcoms perform admirably on Friday night. Scripted costs more to produce than unscripted. But potential longterm earnings (through foreign license and syndication) come with scripted programming. It comes down to what the network wants, ultimately. As I said, if I’m ABC I keep MC with LMS. (I might, however, order MC as a 13-episode midseason entry, thereby opening the slot to try a new series, while simultaneously adding one of the MC stars on the fall edition of Dancing With The Stars to promo its new season.)

  • Lookin’ at Numbers

    Another interesting observation is that “The Neighbors” (which I really do like and would be happy to see renewed!) is largely considered a lock to return. However, its performance, while stronger in A18-49, isn’t too dissimilar from “Malibu Country.” (Only 150,000 viewers separate it in L+SD viewing; and MC jumps ahead in L+7.) And Neighbors’ retention out of “The Middle” is weaker than MC is out of LMS.

    Neighbors STD:
    1.9 A18-49 (holds 79% of The Middle’s 2.4 L+SD), vs. MC’s 1.3
    6.296 Million viewers (holds 75% of The Middle’s 8.349M), vs. MC’s 6.146M

    Surely the expectations on Wednesday nights should be higher than Friday…

  • Jake

    Bill,

    I have to hand it to your gut, it called for a renewal of LMS, looks like you’re going to get it…congrats!

  • Jake

    I really like LMS, more so when it steers away from the political humor. LMS, Arrow and Modern Family are really the only shows I make a point to watch every week. Although my wife and I have started to get into Dallas for some reason, lol.

  • HAPPY!

    Renew Nashville, OUAT and Nashville for full seasons and create a Sunday night block with them
    8: OUAT
    9: Revenge
    10: Nashville

  • Randy

    I don’t still really don’t know about Last Man Standing because they only made 18 episodes for this season. That doesn’t seem like they believe the show is should live on for another year. Don’t they really want a show they are confident about, and not a show they are guessing about. I think Last Man Standing last year was better than this year, but last year it was on a terrible night with all these other terrible shows that got cancelled. Many people don’t want to watch a 1/2 hour show, and than figure out what to watch for another 1/2 hour.

  • AJ

    At this point isn’t it cheaper for ABC to renew Last Man Standing for two seasons at once.

  • Fred

    @HAPPY

    What do you think about this:

    Sun

    AFHV
    OUAT
    BACHELOR – 2 Hours

    Great counterprograming against NFL and TWD. BACHELOR should perform better than REVENGE here.

    Mon

    DWTS- 2hours (only if it returns fairly strong this spring)
    NEW DRAMA- 10:00-Time for DWTS to nurture a new show while it still can.

    Tues

    NEW SHOW- SHIELD- This line up should help ABC.
    CASTLE- about time this solid player gets upgraded.
    NASHVILLE-10:00- this should benefit from CASTLE as a lead in. I really think this show has potential to become a hit.

    Wed

    MIDDLE
    NEW SITCOM- Bring back LMS midseason or earlier depending upon performance.
    MODERN
    NEW SITCOM-Bring back SUB midseason or earlier depending upon performance.
    REVENGE- 10:00- I think this show works better here than Sunday.

    Thurs

    DWTS-First choice was Tuesday, but I don’t think SHIELD looks good here.
    GREY’s
    SCANDAL

    FRIDAY

    SHARK TANK- Makes way more $$ for ABC than sitcoms here.
    PRIME TIME
    20/20

    Caps off a very lucrative night.

  • Jonathan

    A key thing to remember is just how much Disney loves Tim Allen.

    Think of all the money they’ve made together over the years.

    The only way they cancel LMS is if they want him to be freed up to make the Jungle Cruise movie with Tom Hanks they’re developing.

  • Fred

    @Jonathan

    You make a valid point. That is why LMS should placed after The MIDDLE at 8:30 on Wednesday at some point next season. I would hope it would improve ratings wise vs Friday. Would work well with The Middle.

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