CBS: 'Golden Boy' & 'Vegas' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But The 3rd Drama Canceled Isn't So Certain

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


uncertain-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Golden Boy :oops: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.99
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS renewed 1.30
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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Golden Boy is staying on Tuesday (after one disastrous Friday outing last week), and Vegas is moving to Fridays. That's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, both shows are going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

CBS will cancel at least one more of its spring dramas to make room on their schedule next Fall. That cancellation will come from among CSI:NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Sadly, whatever decision metrics CBS will use are completely hidden to us, and my guess that of those three CSI:NY is going away boils down to two things (1) It's oldest, and likely most expensive, and (2) its season ended early, with only 17 episodes. Admittedly, those are a shaky basis for my prediction, but if I'm going to decide by the end of the season regardless, that's all I'm likely to have.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Patrick

    I wouldn’t be surprised if The Mentalist is cancelled as well as CSI: NY. It’s hit the syndication threshold already, and it’s ratings have bombed on Sundays – but it doesn’t have the acclaim or awards-attention that The Good Wife has. CBS has been gung-ho on it’s pilot orders and I reckon they’re going to clear house before May.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Cancel CSI:NY and The Mentalist, and give The Good Wife one final season next year. Problem solved.

  • Dinaminjo

    Both TGW and TM renewed but for mid-season returns..

  • tv#1

    Possible 2013-2014 CBS Schedule could be…

    Mon:
    How I Met Your Mother
    Friends with Better Lives
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    Beverly Hills Cop

    Tue:
    NCIS
    Intelligence
    Person of Interest

    Wed:
    NCIS:LA
    NCIS:RED
    Criminal Minds

    Thur:
    The Big Bang Theory
    Super Clyde
    The Crazy Ones
    Two and a Half Men
    CSI

    Fri:
    Survivor
    Hawaii 5-0
    Blue Bloods

    Sun:
    60 Minutes
    The Amazing Race
    Elementary
    The Good Wife

    Mid-Season:
    Rules of Engagement
    Hostages

  • DenverDean

    Of the three (TM, NY, TGW), CSI: NY can still make money for CBS through ongoing syndication and budget reductions – one long-time star is gone already. Unlike TM (not CBS) and TGW (serialized and weak ratings in first run anyway). CSI: NY also is most stable asset for BB, which would be on the block if it wasn’t in S3. That being said, I could see CBS moving TGW or TM to Friday 9/8. One of the three will be there.

  • One

    I’m not 100% certain how the math works that CBS only needs to cancel one more drama after Vegas and Golden Boy. By my math that only clears up two slots. Are we really assuming that CBS is going to try to sit on Undercover Boss again after the disaster w/ Made In Jersey last fall? Assuming that, you need two more drama cancels. And I just get a sneaking suspicion that The Mentalist is in more trouble than The Good Wife under such a situation.

  • THE OLD MAN

    CSI NY would definitely be my guess for cancelation

    TAKE THIS AS IT MAY

    Michelle & Robert King in a teleconference w/ TV writers last week stated they are confident TGW will be renewed for 2013-14.

    This, coupled w/the EW article w/ casting director Mark Saks (11/2/12) has me cautiously optimistic (but I’m far less confident this year than I was last year).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Michelle & Robert King in a teleconference w/ TV writers last week stated they are confident TGW will be renewed for 2013-14.”

    Did they say whether they were more or less confident than Bill D’Elia and Kathy Bates were about Harry’s Law? ;)

  • MichaelChickless

    Save The Mentalist and CSI: NY, but cancel GB, TGW, & (sniff) Vegas.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I’m not 100% certain how the math works that CBS only needs to cancel one more drama after Vegas and Golden Boy. By my math that only clears up two slots. Are we really assuming that CBS is going to try to sit on Undercover Boss again after the disaster w/ Made In Jersey last fall? Assuming that, you need two more drama cancels.”

    While I basically wrote that verbatim for the last three weeks, I figured it was time to give it a rest.

    Perhaps prematurely.

  • TVDude

    My guess is CSI: NY will be canceled. It’s more expensive and has lower ratings. It barely survived last year. I think it’s time to say goodbye.

    On the comedy end, I think Rules has the ratings for renewal (for a midseason replacement again). But I think it’s creatively and economically spent. I will be very surprised if it renewed, but won’t deny the possibility at the same time. It will really depend on CBS’s pilots and Rules cast (negotiations).

  • Steven

    The Good Wife will probably get a 13 episode order to end the series.

  • Common Anomaly

    CBS dramas canceled after four seasons:
    The Unit, The District, Early Edition, Picket Fences, Wiseguy, The Equalizer, Scarecrow & Mrs. King, Airwolf

    CBS dramas canceled after five seasons:
    Ghost Whisperer, Jake & The Fatman, Lou Grant, The Incredible Hulk, Cannon, Kojak

    CBS dramas canceled after six seasons:
    Numb3rs, Judging Amy, Nash Bridges, Chicago Hope, Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman,
    Northern Exposure

    CBS dramas canceled after seven seasons:
    Medium (5 seasons on NBC, 2 seasons on CBS), Cold Case, Without a Trace, Cagney & Lacey, Trapper John, MD, Dukes of Hazard, Mission: Impossible, Medical Center

    CBS dramas canceled after eight seasons:
    Diagnosis Murder, Walker, Texas Ranger, In the Heat of the Night (5 on NBC, 3 on CBS), Simon & Simon, Magnum, P.I., Barnaby Jones, Mannix

    CBS dramas canceled after nine seasons:
    Touched by an Angel, Falcon Crest, The Waltons

    CBS dramas canceled after ten or more seasons:
    CSI: Miami (10), JAG (1 on NBC, 9 on CBS), Murder, She Wrote (12), Knots Landing (14), Dallas (14), Hawaii Five-0 (12), Gunsmoke (20)

  • Fan

    Can you tell me what you think of it ?

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Mike & Molly
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Red
    10:00 – Beverly Hills Cop

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – Two and a Half Men
    9:00 – Person of Interest
    10:00 – Intelligence

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – CSI: NY / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    7:00 – 60 Minutes
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Elementary
    10:00 – The Mentalist

  • THE OLD MAN

    @ Bill

    Like I said, TAKE THIS AS IT MAY!!

  • BL

    @tv#1

    Rules of Engagement will almost definitely be cancelled. CBS usually cancels their lowest-rated sitcom just like last year’s Rob!, 2010’s (Bleep) My Dad Says, and 2009’s Accidentally on Purpose along with Gary Unmarried and The New Adventures of Old Christine.

  • LuckoX10

    God I can’t believe they’re stretching this out.
    Renew The Mentalist and The Goodwife.
    Cancel CSI:NY and Vegas immediately.
    Check Golden Boy’s future ratings; if it does any better, renew it.

  • Sheri

    Fan and Tv#1 — I don’t think they’ll move Elementary to a Sunday slot. They seem to reserve that for shows that are falling off and either have a cult-following or shows that they’re trying to get into syndication. Elementary is doing better, and I think they’ll give it a chance to grow more still in a regular slot.

    And I haven’t kept up on stuff enough to have heard of Beverly Hills Cop, but I sincerely hope it doesn’t make the cut and that they try something else. Too many re-used ideas in TV already. CBS’s drama schedule is virtually all crime shows, which I do love, hence CBS is my favorite channel. But, I hope they chose something that will break out of the mold, or at least give us a different take than we’ve been having.

  • PurpleDrazi

    Love that bear pic. He looks as frustrated as the rest of us. “Get on with it CBS!”

    I agree that CSI:NY appears to be the front runner in the next to be canceled race.

  • Dan S

    @Fan, where’s the new Robin Williams sitcom Crazy Ones ? That’s pretty much a given it’ll be in the fall lineup & another reason why CBS will need a 2hr comedy block on Thur. I’m thinking both Survivor & H50 will move to Sun IMHO. BHC will likely get Mon at 10pm which would flow well out of comedies.

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