CBS: 'Golden Boy' & 'Vegas' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But The 3rd Drama Canceled Isn't So Certain

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


uncertain-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Golden Boy :oops: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.99
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS renewed 1.30
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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Golden Boy is staying on Tuesday (after one disastrous Friday outing last week), and Vegas is moving to Fridays. That's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, both shows are going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

CBS will cancel at least one more of its spring dramas to make room on their schedule next Fall. That cancellation will come from among CSI:NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Sadly, whatever decision metrics CBS will use are completely hidden to us, and my guess that of those three CSI:NY is going away boils down to two things (1) It's oldest, and likely most expensive, and (2) its season ended early, with only 17 episodes. Admittedly, those are a shaky basis for my prediction, but if I'm going to decide by the end of the season regardless, that's all I'm likely to have.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Jake

    I think CSI:NY, The Good Wife, & Vegas should be cancelled. Hawaii 5-0 moved to Sundays & CSI moved to Fridays.

  • JC

    Some thoughts/guesses:

    I think CSI:NY is gone.

    IF The Good Wife is renewed, I think they will move it to Friday. I can’t see them leaving it on Sunday yet another season. If they don’t want Sunday to be the new Friday, they need to move a stronger show into the 9:00 pm slot.

    IF The Mentalist is renewed, I think it will stay where it is, to see whether its ratings will perk up with a stronger lead in. If it doesn’t, then the sixth season will be the last.

    One of my biggest questions about next season’s is what CBS is going to do with Tuesdays. I’m not as convinced as a lot of people here seem to be that they will go for an all-NCIS night. But I’m not convinced they won’t either. However, IF they don’t, I think NCIS:LA will move and NCIS:Red will take its place. The question then is – where will LA end up? Sundays at nine? Mondays at ten? Something else?

    And my last thought – I don’t think Elementary will move. I think it will stay where it is for at least one more season. CBS doesn’t usually seem to move its dramas in their second season-in fact the last time I could find that they did was when they moved The Mentalist to make room for NCIS:LA. I remember last season a lot of people were convinced that Person of Interest would be moved because it was “wasting” the old CSI time slot. But it wasn’t.

    And I could be/probably will be wrong about any or all of the above. :)

  • carole

    If CBS cancels Vegas, I hope another network picks it up. It’s a great show.

  • DW

    Did they say whether they were more or less confident than Bill D’Elia and Kathy Bates were about Harry’s Law?

    No they did not bring up the bear at all. they know what the ratings are like and they are going to put the best show on. all they can do.

  • Janus

    I think the Mentalist will eek out one more season–and wrap up the Red John arc.

  • CAS

    I love The Mentalist. Maybe if they hadn’t shipped it off to Sundays, which is where shows on CBS go to die, it would have better ratings.

  • Dan

    Every year CBS cancels at least 1 veteran, In 2009 it was Without a Trace, n 2010 it was Numb3rs, Cold Case & Ghost Whisperer and in 2011 it was Medium. In 2012 it was CSI Miami so this year the tradition stands and CSI NY is the veteran canceled.

    The third drama is certain, its CSI NY as the veteran and Vegas & Golden Boy as the two freshman cancellations (along with the already cancelled Made in Jersey & Partners).

    The real question here is what will be the fourth drama

    The Good Wife
    The Mentalist
    or both

    Its like arguing over at The CW “Will they cancel TCD or BATB or only 1?”

    So its really The Good Wife Vs. The Mentalist, Bill maybe you could use that headline next week.

  • Bad Wolf

    My ideal cancellation list :
    1 – CSI:NY (boring procedural)
    2 – The Mentalist (boring procedural, but with an OK long-running serial killer storyline)
    3 – The Good Wife (ambitious, well acted and well written show, which constantly finds new ways to tell its stories, recent episode 4-14 being an excellent example)
    Of course, this list is very, very subjective, please notice that I’m not claiming that The Good Wife is THE best show currently airing, it’s just MY favorite show.

    Now, what’s likely to happen :
    1 – CSI:NY (old, probably more expensive than the other two, weak ratings even for Fridays, already two almost-series finales, shortened season – Numb3rs anyone ?)
    2 – The Mentalist (weak ratings but better than The Good Wife’s, not owned by CBS, syndication threshold already reached)…
    … tied with The Good Wife (owned by CBS, a syndication deal which could be strenghtened with a 5th season and, last and least, critical acclaim).

    In 2010, CBS cancelled Ghost Whisperer after only 8 episodes of bad ratings and kept the newly arrived Medium only to cancel it 13 episodes later after disastrous ratings. While I understand their decision about Ghost Whisperer, I’ve never really got over the undeserved Medium final season. So, if CBS give a final season to The Good Wife, I’ll finally be in peace with them (not that my feelings matter to them of course but hey, The Good Wife is the only show I’m currently caring about, so once it’s gone, whatever happens on whatever network with whatever show, I’ll be fine with it).

  • Dan

    @CAS – A show being shipped to Sundays is like a show being shipped to fridays for other networks (Only other networks have more stable Sundays than CBS) Once high rated shows like Without a Trace, Cold Case, CSI Miami, The Mentalist and The Good Wife were all shipped to Sundays for their later seasons to make room for new shows on the weekdays.

    So its an indicator that CBS intends to cancel one of the two or both.

  • Tom

    I thought NY was also taken off the summer repeat schedule, which usually isn’t a healthy sign?

  • Dan

    @Bad Wolf – My understanding was that CBS was really trying to keep Ghost Whisperer but it was neck and neck with Medium and CBS fully owns Medium where GW is partially owned by ABC.

    CBS fully owns The Good Wife I believe so If they want a short final season for syndication then they could work one out.

    If I were CBS then I would renew it for a short season for midseason but CBS doesnt do farewell seasons.

  • Holly

    Michelle & Robert King in a teleconference w/ TV writers last week stated they are confident TGW will be renewed for 2013-14.

    In an interview before the finale, the CSI: NY showrunner stated that she had no indication from CBS that they would be cancelled either. CBS loves you right up until the point they cancel you.

  • Holly

    @Dan,

    Cold Case was always on Sundays, not moved there.

  • THE OLD MAN

    @ JC

    I’m thinking the nets know that Sun is the new Fri which is why I think TGW should be moved to 10:00 & H50 @ 9:00.

  • Melanie

    I say this every week — I keep hoping against hope that Vegas becomes the new Good Wife – CBS’ low rated show that it inexplicably renews. I’m also hoping that it does better than Golden Boy (and Made in Jersey)on Fridays.

    IF the Good Wife comes back — I bet its for a short final season a la Fringe – makes it to 100 episodes and everybody can say it ended on its own terms and wasn’t ‘cancelled’.

    I’m thinking that both CSI:NY and the Mentalist are done.

  • Jonay

    I believe CBS will cancel CSI:NY The good Wife The mentalist Golden Boy and Vegas and try something new that will shock us all

  • RG-X

    “Vegas” over due to be cancelled – period pieces on network tv
    does. not. work. for the ump-teenth time!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I say this every week — I keep hoping against hope that Vegas becomes the new Good Wife – CBS’ low rated show that it inexplicably renews. “

    Bad ratings memory on your part. (no shame, my memory is beyond terrible, that’s why I have spreadsheets)

    The first season of The Good Wife wasn’t “low rated”. It averaged 88% of the CBS overall average. That’s “likely renewal” all the way.

    And season 2 ratings weren’t terrible, it did 79% of the CBS spring average in 2011. That’s “toss up” for a veteran show, not an inexplicable renewal.

    The Good Wife ratings really only got terrible in season three.

  • Ginger

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Mom (new comedy)
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – Bad Teacher (new comedy)
    10:00 – Beverly Hills Cop (new drama)

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00 – NCIS: Red (new drama)

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – The Crazy Ones (new Robin Williams Comedy)
    9:00 – Two and a Half Men (new time)
    9:30 – Mike & Molly (new night)
    10:00 – Elementary

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Undercover Boss
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0 (new night and time)
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    7:00 – 60 Minutes
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Person of Interest (new night and time)
    10:00 – Hostages (new drama)

  • samurai99

    Bill, I have a question: Is the Index score for elementary including the Superbowl episode, and if so, would ignoring that put it below CSI and H50.

    I think elementary will go to either Monday or Tuesday at 10 next year. And anyon that thinks it’s going to be shipped off to die on Sunday is crazy.

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