CBS: 'Golden Boy' & 'Vegas' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But The 3rd Drama Canceled Isn't So Certain

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


uncertain-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Golden Boy :oops: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.99
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS renewed 1.30
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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Golden Boy is staying on Tuesday (after one disastrous Friday outing last week), and Vegas is moving to Fridays. That's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, both shows are going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

CBS will cancel at least one more of its spring dramas to make room on their schedule next Fall. That cancellation will come from among CSI:NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Sadly, whatever decision metrics CBS will use are completely hidden to us, and my guess that of those three CSI:NY is going away boils down to two things (1) It's oldest, and likely most expensive, and (2) its season ended early, with only 17 episodes. Admittedly, those are a shaky basis for my prediction, but if I'm going to decide by the end of the season regardless, that's all I'm likely to have.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Pepper

    I really thought that Golden Boy and Blue Bloods would have been a good match together on Fridays. I wonder what CBS will pair with Blue Bloods if both Golden Boy and CSI:NY are cancelled.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, I have a question: Is the Index score for elementary including the Superbowl episode, and if so, would ignoring that put it below CSI and H50.”

    It does not. I didn’t include either the Elementary post SB episode or the H50 post AFC championship ep in my calculations.

    That’s yet another reason I do not advertise the ratings averages themselves. They’re not correct!

  • samurai99

    @Pepper

    Probably either one of their shows on Sunday (assuming they get renewed), H50, or the original CSI.

  • Dan

    @Pepper – My guess is that the original CSI will move to Fridays at 9, Undercover Boss will air Fridays at 8 or a new series at that time.

  • Dan

    @Holly – You;re right about Cold Case, I was confusing the fact that it got moved to Sundays at 9 and then 10 as the show being moved from another night. My guess is Moving to 10 in favor of Three Rivers airing at 9 didn’t help the show.

    For those still in favor of CSI NY look at it this way.

    In May 2009 it was between Cold Case and Without a Trace for another season, Cold Case was younger and got another season while both had similar ratings.
    Case got cancelled the next year.

    In May 2012 it was between CSI NY and CSI Miami for another season. CSI NY was younger and it got another season while both did have similar ratings.
    CSI NY will end up being cancelled the next year (May 2013)

  • Rob R

    I don’t see “The Good Wife” being cancelled, because of the prestige it brings the network, and I believe, the ad rates that it is able to command despite its 18-49 rating (due to other demographics that we don’t see). That said, I see it being shifted into the 10 pm slot and/or moved to Friday, and CBS looking for a show that can deliver a better rating after Amazing Race’s solid 2.4.

  • MARSEPH

    I agree that Golden Boy is a cut…tonight, no lead-in and its new….can you say canceled.

    Vegas is canceled as well as it and Elementary are both CBS productions but Elementary is vastly stronger….Elementary IMO is weak, but Vegas is pathetic.

    CSI:NY is probably the next one up….Mentalist and Goodwife will get another season.

  • Tom

    Still hoping Golden Boy picks up. I can’t say I love it but Chi McBride is great.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    I love all 3 of the (CSI:NY/TGW/TM) trio, heck I watch & love the whole network besides H50 & TAR/SVR, which I have no basis for bias one way or another & won’t let that cloud my judgement.

    With that said, CSI:NY is most likely done. The ratings just aren’t as strong as they should be. Moving TGW or TM or even H50 to take over that time slot would be an equal enough move, esp since all 3 of those are on their last season(s) as well.

    I think the only solid chance, besides Elementary tanking, is if CBS can’t get TNT or USA or anyone else to buy TGW, even if they give the syndication over 100 episodes. If CBS isn’t going to get syndication $, then another season, short or full, won’t be worth it. As far as critical acclaim goes, when was their last awards/nominations?

    I know that TM is a Time Warner show, however, of the 3, I think it is the most safe. It has a solid 7% 2013 lead over TGW as far as ratings go. Not to mention 15% over CSI:NY. It is also the only show, of the 3, that I see show up in the Cable Ratings.

    As far as CBS is concerned, I think they should also realize that come next year, whatever 2 shows that they don’t cancel this year, that Blue Bloods (2% better than CSI:NY) will be added to the mix as well & actually on the very bottom. Meaning, TGW & TM could go for 2 more years. H50 will probably be in the mix, the top in 3 years. CSI:LV will probably be in the mix the same year H50 is. And, who knows how Elementary will do s2. If they do better than TGW/TM/BB, then EMTRY will get @ least 4 years, even if they become another BB.

    This leaves the drama slate of NCIS, NCIS:LA, CM & POI on the air for at least 5 more years. I base only on ratings by far, syndication secondary, & have no basis to base cast salaries into the equation. Even if these 4 start to sink, depending on how new dramas do, they could either stay same timeslot or move but fans of these 4 shows should feel very confident that these 4 are nowhere near leaving.

    Comedy slate is less known as the shows are either youngish (2BG/M&M) or old (TAAHM) or final season is near (HIMYM/ROE), save for TBBT, which is a nice enough sweet spot, esp with ratings factored in.

    Granted this all bares in mind that no more than 1, if that, new show aka Elementary 2012-2013, makes it to a second or more season. If say 2 new shows get a second season next year 2013-2014, then that means 2 of TGW/TM/BB will be canceled & not make it to 2014-2015.

    Also, this means that a new comedy hour isn’t started. If I was CBS, I would either start this coming year or wait 2 years. I wouldn’t start a comedy hour 2014-2015. Not only are they probably going to let ROE leave, next year HIMYM is leaving & TAAHM could end up asking for more money than their demo allows for, which if this years comedy’s go the way of Partners, would leave 2014-2015 with 3 slots so another 2 comedy slots (to replace the ever expanding drama’s on the bubble) would leave them unnecessarily vulnerable.

    IMO, CBS scheduling & demo ratings for the next half a decade are going to be pretty interesting as more & more stable shows start ageing & low one on the totem pole gets let go. The amount of bubble shows are going to increase as the years go by, so new shows hopefully can be solid performers, otherwise there are going to be a lot more Blue Bloods getting s4 for syndication sakes & then cut b4 s5, type renewals.

    FOX After AI will be interesting. But until then, nothing much of interest. A couple new drama & comedies each year to see if anything can stick & eventually replace both After AI & Bones/Glee.

    ABC Tuesday & Thur 8pm are struggling & Sun esp 10pm is really starting to become weak. But they can continue testing new shows. Maybe they will put OUAT/Revenge on Tuesday & put new comedies on Sunday or maybe Crime of the Week not season on Sundays. Also, they should either put Shark Tank new on Thur 8pm or find another reality show for that timeslot. I’m not concerned about after Grey’s or their non Tues low Comedy spots.

    NBC is a big mess but it’s either going to find new hit shows or turn into CW, except they will still have SNF for years, TV for at least a half decade even if they have to resort to C grade coaches.

    CW I have no idea how long they can be a 10hr new sow network. But, I bet Arrow gets 4 years unless a lot of 2013-2014 new shows become hits & even then Arrow s2 would have to fall hard. SPN will be gone in 2yrs, because the actors apparently will quit. Which would mean that in 3 years it will be TVD & Arrow & then just a bunch of what .2-.4 shows to renew b/c the overall ratings decline will be at that level in 3+ yrs.

    So, for me, CBS is the one broadcast network that has the most interesting situations to deal with over the next 5 years. The other 4 are either just plugging a few holes/nights (FOX&ABC) or basically the whole schedule (NBC/CW). CBS, as long as they can find a new drama every year & comedy every 2 years that can make it to syndication, can probably be the most stable/strong network of the 5. They will probably move some deck chairs around every year. They also if they can’t get solid new shows will start getting holes in their schedule. Right now, Fri & Sun are really only holes for them, not actual to be concerned about holes.

  • INSIDER

    The Mentalist has already been picked up. Not public, but the producers have already been told this. Just FYI…

  • mm1surfer

    Wow – I took moving Vegas to Fridays as one final shot of life. If it matches or exceeds CSI NY ratings then there is a possibility it stays. If this isn’t so then why move it at all?

  • Leverage-Fan

    @INSIDER: Unfortunately, “The Mentalist” isn’t renewed yet. As much I would like it to be true but this rumor was proven false on this site. :(

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Wow – I took moving Vegas to Fridays as one final shot of life. If it matches or exceeds CSI NY ratings then there is a possibility it stays. If this isn’t so then why move it at all?”

    CBS either thought they could get better ratings (ad revenue) in the short term by having Vegas on Friday & GB on Tuesday. Or they wanted to make absolutely sure that GB was dead.

    Either way, Vegas is dead.

  • samurai99

    @Bill.

    Sorry, I had to run. Thanks for the info! I just wanted to make sure Elementary was doing better at 10 pm than any other CBS show.

  • Tracy

    I hope your wrong and CSI NY stays. The Mentalist hasn’t been good for the last two seasons and I don’t watch The Goodwife…(more soap opera tv), but I love CSI NY and it does well on Friday’s. Nothing they have put on in it’s place has done well there. CBS needs to leave it alone, besides that, none of the shows they are bringing out even sound all that good. And, who wants to keep investing time in a show only for them to pull it a few episodes in? So, not only have you lost the show you love, you lose the new one too.

  • Court

    CBS get to stop make show canceled them . Place keep csiny and bluebloodls to get there.

    My for Friday

    8:00 the good wife
    9:00 csiny
    10:00 bluebloodls

    I love those show then .

  • Michael1

    If you look at it another way, CBS is virtually guaranteed to renew a show (either TGW or TM) that is losing to “All-Star Celebrity Apprentice.” :(

  • wallaby2012

    Does anyone really watch the Mentalist? Keep Vegas!!! Golden Boy…not so much.

  • JJF

    Person of Interest and Intelligence beg to be paired together. I say move Elementary to Sundays and pair it with a final season of The Mentalist. IMO, the two shows could work well together. It’s time for TGW to end. Cut it and CSI:NY.

    Make Tuesday night NCIS night. If the new show is a hit, they could move it or LA next season. If it’s a flop, CBS still has their winning pairing.

    Move either CSI or H50 to Friday and premiere a new drama in the vacant slot. Then try a comedy hour @ 8PM. Extra hour of comedy that doesn’t break up a strong Thursday 9PM performer that it’d be stupid to move elsewhere (not to mention it can help out a new drama, like say, Intelligence?)

    So I’ll go with this:

    Sunday: 60Min/The Amazing Race/Elementary/TheMentalist (Final Season)
    Monday: HIMYM/New Comedy/2BrokeGirls/M&M/H50 or New Show
    Tuesday: NCIS/LA/Red
    Wednesday: Survivor/CM/CSI or New Show
    Thursday: TBBT/New Comedy/POI/Intelligence
    Friday: TAAM/New Comedy/H50 or CSI/BB

    3 new dramas here(Red, Intelligence, and something else). No huge moves. Expanded comedy hour that doesn’t interrupt a successful drama’s momentum (and gives Friday some MUCH-needed demographic presence that could help pull up the night’s average). Next season’s going to be a ticking time bomb with BB/H50/and whichever of TGW/The Mentalist that might survive likely needing cancellation barring an improvement. CBS shouldn’t risk sinking their successful shows now because they’re going to really need them to stay strong soon when they’ll have a lot of other holes to fill in just 1 season.

    anyway, that’s my prediction. Nothing too radical. And for now, Ima stick to it. :)

  • ProViewerShipNumbers

    SUNDAY
    7 60 MINUTES
    8
    9 NCIS: RED
    10 BLUE BLOODS

    MONDAY
    8 HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER [FINAL SEASON]
    8
    9 MIKE & MOLLY
    9 TWO AND A HALF MEN [FINAL SEASON]
    10 CRIMINAL MINDS

    TUESDAY
    8 NCIS [29 episodes]
    9 THE GOOD WIFE [29 episodes **if it’s the final season**]
    10 NCIS: LOS ANGELES [27 episodes]

    WEDNESDAY
    8
    8
    9 2 BROKE GIRLS
    9
    10 CSI

    THURSDAY
    8 THE BIG BANG THEORY
    8
    9 PERSON OF INTEREST [29 episodes]
    10

    FRIDAY
    8
    9 THE MENTALIST
    10 ELEMENTARY

    SATURDAY
    7 THE AMAZING RACE [FINAL SEASON] | UNDERCOVER BOSS [DECEMBER]
    8 SURVIVOR | COMEDY REPEATS [DECEMBER]
    9 Hawaii Five-0
    10 VEGAS | GOLDEN BOY [APRIL]

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