CBS: 'Golden Boy' & 'Vegas' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But The 3rd Drama Canceled Isn't So Certain

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


uncertain-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Golden Boy :oops: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.99
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS renewed 1.30
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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Golden Boy is staying on Tuesday (after one disastrous Friday outing last week), and Vegas is moving to Fridays. That's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, both shows are going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

CBS will cancel at least one more of its spring dramas to make room on their schedule next Fall. That cancellation will come from among CSI:NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Sadly, whatever decision metrics CBS will use are completely hidden to us, and my guess that of those three CSI:NY is going away boils down to two things (1) It's oldest, and likely most expensive, and (2) its season ended early, with only 17 episodes. Admittedly, those are a shaky basis for my prediction, but if I'm going to decide by the end of the season regardless, that's all I'm likely to have.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • JC

    @ THE OLD MAN

    Sorry, I just can’t see a H50/TGW pairing. I can’t honestly think of two more incompatible shows in CBS’s lineup. I might be completely wrong on this, but it just seems like those two shows would appeal to two completely different audiences. (Not saying there’s no overlap at all-I’m sure there’s some people who watch both, but I can’t imagine it being a large group.)

  • ProViewerShipNumbers

    FILLING IN THE BLANKS ON THE ABOVE CBS SKED: [note: CBS is in a position where they can be the most ambitious TV network; great raings+aging shows+erection for crime]
    SUN 8 HALF A HEART
    MON 8:30 = Friends With Better Lives
    WED 8 = The McCarthys
    WED 8:30 = Untitled Jim Gaffigan Comedy
    WED 9:30 = Ex-Men
    THU 8:30 = Unauthorized Greg Garcia Project
    THU 10 = Hostages
    FRI 8 = White People

    HALF A HEART: Based on Rosellen Brown’s book of the same name which traces the lives of several people who participated in the civil rights movement and continue to live in its shadow. Written by Tina Mabry & Regina Taylor.

    White People: Loosely based on J.T.Rogers’ play of the same name about the lives of three ordinary Americans placed under the spotlight: Martin, a Brooklyn-born high powered attorney for a white-shoe law firm in St. Louis, MO; Mara Lynn, a housewife and former homecoming queen in Fayetteville, NC; and Alan, a young professor struggling to find his way in New York City. Through heart-wrenching confessions, they wrestle with guilt, prejudice, and the price they and their children must pay for their actions. White People is a candid, brutally honest meditation on race and language in our culture. Written by J.T. Rogers.

  • David Howell

    It sounds like CBS have effectively two stone cold pickups from pilot season (Mom and Crazy Ones) and only one spot free to put them. And one of them is a singlecam.

    It seems inconceivable to me that CBS don’t expand comedy time this season – I think they planned it last season (with 2.5 Men as the Thursday 9pm anchor) but didn’t have the two new comedies needed to make it happen (as the #2 was Friend Me). This might also explain Rules being the last show renewed – they may have negotiated a new deal based on the prospect of 22 episodes in an expanded sitcom block, and then had to change it to “actually, we only need you for 13″ once it became clear Rules would be a utility player again.

    I think it goes this season, purely because a) Spade is doing a pilot, b) the clean-up role is now being played by TBBT reruns. I’d still make a play for it if I was NBC, though – they could use a sitcom that gets THEIR scripted average, let alone CBS’s!

  • Elijah

    Anyone who thinks Elementary should go to Sundays or Fridays or Saturdays should get their brain examined.

    “it isn’t doing as well as CBS wanted it too”
    Lovely, I am sick of hearing this. Do you have a source to back that up haters? You can say the same about POI or 2 Broke Girls as well. I can make stuff up too and claim CBS was expecting 2 Broke Girls to do >4.5 in the 18-49 every week! And how exactly are all the other 10pm CBS shows doing significantly better anyways?

    “The retention out of POI is bad”
    No it’s not, nor does retention mean anything which has been explained to everyone on this site several times throughout the years. And you think the retentionistas would learn after several years that retention means nothing. Seriously, every year they claim shows with bad retention are going to get cancelled than are magically surprised when they get renewed. I don’t get how they can continue to be so ignorant and clueless. That being said the re

  • rob60990

    CSI:NY is definitely going to be cancelled. I think The Good Wife will be renewed. The Mentalist is the real wildcard but I’m going to go with cancelled. Then CBS can premiere 3 new dramas while add an extra hour of comedy.

  • KJ Styles

    This HAS NOT been a good season for new shows AT ALL. The only two I liked (Last Resort and Golden Boy) won’t see a second season :(

  • psychic

    Cancel CSI:NY and The Good Bore and renew The Mentalist if you want me to ever watch anything on your channel again.

  • samurai99

    Another question: If CBS does expand their comedies, why wouldn’t they just air only 2 new drama pilots instead of canceling another?

  • robby

    @ Common Anomaly
    i liked your chart of canceled shows after a certain season that is a good trend but i would like to point out that Walker Texas Ranger would have went on to season 9 but Chuck Norris wanted to leave the show. he wanted the show to go on and change the name of the show to Texas Rangers starring Clarence Gilyard as Jimmy Trivette but Cbs wasn’t interested in the show without Norris so Cbs canceled the series.

  • robby

    cancelled csi ny the golden boy the menatalist rules of engagement and vegas

    renewed ncis ncis los angeles criminal minds the good wife 13 episode final season
    csi blue bloods hawaii five o and whatever else is left will be renewed

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Another question: If CBS does expand their comedies, why wouldn’t they just air only 2 new drama pilots instead of canceling another?”

    Not against the law. Just different than they’ve done for most (all?) of this century.

    And if any network is a creature of habit, it’s CBS.

  • carol

    I love Vegas get rid of How I Met Your Mother

  • geri

    Of all the shows that face possible cancellation the only one that I really like is The Mentalist. That is one of my favorite shows. Moving it to Sunday was a disaster. I like Vagas too, but if I have to choose, well, I hope they keep The Mentalist.

  • dogma

    The Vegas time slot has been moved to Friday’s at 9pm beginning April 5th. Golden Boy” won the Tuesday 10 p.m. hour with 9.27 million viewers and a 1.6 rating among adults 18-49. “Vegas” with 10.2 million viewers and a 1.8 rating, now butts heads with ABC’s Shark Tank (6 Million viewers…but a 2.1 among the 18-49 viewers.)
    Now the question is will the new time slot give Vegas new life and a new season?

    It’s ironic for me as the ONLY two major network TV shows I watch are Vegas and Shark Tank. More than likely, I will DVR Vegas and watch it at 10pm (BTW, if any CBS TV exec’s are reading this, I promise to watch all the Vegas commercials…really, as I know what pays the bills and appreciate advertisers that sponsor shows I like). Hopefully Vegas gets renewed and I can cozy up with my favorite warm beverage on Friday nights.
    Reply

  • Melalucci

    I love The Mentalist. I’ll be very sad if it’s cancelled. It’s the only one of my shows that is in danger this year, so I guess I’m lucky in that way.

  • MaryAnn

    I can’t believe how completely The Good Wife seems to be immune to cancellation. Awards and critical acclaim don’t seem to save other shows. To me, The Good Wife is totally unwatchable. Apparently, a lot of other people agree, given its numbers in the ratings, and it doesn’t even have Friday as an excuse. So why is it still around?

  • Ultima

    @MaryAnn
    So why is it still around?

    Good ratings its first season. Decent ratings its second season. Poor ratings its third season, but it was within a season of syndication, so it was renewed.

    Nothing to do with awards or critical acclaim.

  • SJ

    Monday:

    8pm – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30pm – Mike & Molly
    9pm – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30pm – New Comedy
    10pm – New Drama

    Tuesday:

    8pm – NCIS
    9pm – New Drama (NCIS: Red)
    10pm – NCIS: LA

    Wednesday:

    8pm – Survivor
    9pm – Criminal Minds
    10pm – New Drama

    Thursday:

    8pm – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30pm – Two and a Half Men
    9pm – Person of Interest
    10pm – Elementary

    Friday:

    8pm – Undercover Boss (full season)
    9pm – CSI
    10pm – Blue Bloods

    Saturday:

    8pm-10pm – Crimetime Saturday (Drama reruns)
    10pm – 48 Hours

    Sunday:

    7pm – 60 Minutes
    8pm – The Amazing Race
    9pm – The Good Wife
    10pm – Hawaii 5-0

    Cancelled: Vegas, Golden Boy, CSI: NY, Rules of Engagement and The Mentalist.

  • Dan

    The Vegas/Golden Boy swap was done purely for better scheduling and not to help either show. CBS has Golden Boy for 13 eps, why would they want to put Golden Boy on hiatus for a few weeks when it has more eps then Vegas. CBS is more likely to air repeats Tuesday at 10 then Fridays so airing new GB makes more sense. Both shows will burn through their orders before up fronts leaving no leftovers for the summer.

  • CBSviewer

    My schedule:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Rules of Engagement
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Red
    10:00 – Elementary

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Person of Interest
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – Crazy Ones
    9:00 – Two and a Half Men
    9:30 – Mike & Molly
    10:00 – Beverly Hills Cop

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Intelligence / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Survivor
    10:00 – The Mentalist

    I really want to know what you think of my schedule, please.

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