CBS: 'Golden Boy' & 'Vegas' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But The 3rd Drama Canceled Isn't So Certain

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


uncertain-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Golden Boy :oops: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.99
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS renewed 1.30
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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Golden Boy is staying on Tuesday (after one disastrous Friday outing last week), and Vegas is moving to Fridays. That's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, both shows are going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

CBS will cancel at least one more of its spring dramas to make room on their schedule next Fall. That cancellation will come from among CSI:NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Sadly, whatever decision metrics CBS will use are completely hidden to us, and my guess that of those three CSI:NY is going away boils down to two things (1) It's oldest, and likely most expensive, and (2) its season ended early, with only 17 episodes. Admittedly, those are a shaky basis for my prediction, but if I'm going to decide by the end of the season regardless, that's all I'm likely to have.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Dan

    Survivor did always seem like a sunday show, It might be smart for CBS to move that show to Sundays at 9, and maybe air their 2 new comedies Wed at 8 so they could still have Thurs at 9 for POI.

  • ToXiX

    Bout as real as it gets except for maybe Golden Boy.

    Monday

    8 How I Met Your Mother –
    830 Mike & Molly –
    9 2 Broke Girls –
    930 New Comedy –
    10 Hawaii 5-0

    Tuesday

    8 NCIS
    9 NCIS LA
    10 NCIS Red

    Wednesday

    8 Survivor
    9 Criminal Minds
    10 CSI

    Thursday

    8 The Big Bang Theory
    830 Two And A Half Men
    9 Person Of Interest
    10 New Drama

    Friday

    8 Undercover Boss
    9 Golden Boy
    10 Blue Bloods

    Sunday

    8 Amazing Race
    9 Elementary
    10 The Mentalist

  • Cj morton

    They need to take The Mentalist off Sundays!!

  • gerry

    TGW just closed on a multi-platform syndication deal. no way they won’t give it a final season now! hooray!!!

  • mrplayboy

    Why is everyone predicting Hawaii 5-0 moving to Fridays?

    If I was CBS…
    MONDAY
    08:00 2 Broke Girls
    08:30 New Comedy
    09:00 The Crazy Ones (New Robin Williams Comedy)
    09:30 Mike and Molly
    10:00 New Drama

    TUESDAY
    08:00 NCIS
    09:00 NCIS:RED (New Drama)
    10:00 NCIS:LA

    WEDNESDAY
    08:00 Beverly Hills Cop (New Drama)
    09:00 Criminal Minds
    10:00 CSI

    THURSDAY
    08:00 The Big Bang Theory
    08:30 How I Met Your Mother (Final Season)
    09:00 Two and a Half Men
    09:30 New Comedy

    FRIDAY
    08:00 The Good Wife
    09:00 Drama TBD
    10:00 Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    07:00 60 Minutes
    08:00 Survivor (Fall)
    08:00 The Amazing Race (Spring)
    09:00 Drama TBD
    10:00 Hawaii 5-0

  • Leverage-Fan

    “The Mentalist” is more than ever in a VERY bad situation. It could live with ‘only’ five seasons if we get a series finale. The only hope is Warner now which COULD make a deal for a short final season. But the chances a slim! :-(

  • bluejoni

    Get rid of CSI NY it should have been canceled last year !!

  • bluejoni

    LEAVE Survivor where it is !!! It’s the best against the competition on Wed !!

  • yusei fudo

    CBS 2013 2014 schedule
    Fall
    Sunday
    7:00pm:60 Minutes
    8:00pm:The Amazing Race
    9:00pm:Elementary (13-18 episodes)
    10:00pm:Hawaii 5-O
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    mid season
    7:00pm:60 Minutes
    8:00pm:The Amazing Race
    9:00pm:Intelligence
    10:00pm:Hawaii 5-O
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    Monday
    8:00pm: How I Met Your Mother
    8:30pm: Friends With Better Lives (premiere after 2 Broke Girls)(18 episdoes)
    9:00pm: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30pm: Mike& Molly
    10:00pm:Second Sight
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    mid season
    8:00pm: How I Met Your Mother
    8:30pm: Rules Of Engagement
    9:00pm: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30pm: Mike& Molly
    10:00pm:Second Sight
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    Tuesday
    Fall
    8:00pm:NCIS (2 hour premiere)
    9:00pm:NCIS:LA
    10:00pm:NCIS:Red
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    Wednesday
    Fall
    8:00pm:Surrivor
    9:00pm:Criminal Minds
    10:00pm:CSI: Crime Scene Investigation
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    Thursday
    Fall
    8:00pm: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30pm: Jacked Up
    9:00pm: Two & A Half Men
    9:30pm: Bad Teacher
    10:00pm:Person Of Interest
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    Friday
    Fall
    8:00pm:The Surgeon General
    9:00pm:The Mentalist
    10:00pm:Blue Bloods
    ____________________________________________________________________________
    mid season
    8:00pm:Beverly Hill Cop
    9:00pm:The Surgeon General
    10:00pm:Blue Bloods

  • bluejoni

    What we don’t need are any more mindless sitcoms !!!

  • rob60990

    I’ll be shocked if Chuck Lorre’s new show does not premiere after TBBT. CBS would be foolish to waste another year of TBBT lead-in propping up a veteran comedy.

  • Meliwa

    What few episodes of CSI: NY I’ve seen this season have had the tone of the producers feeling this is a final season; I really can’t explain it, but it feels that way. So I’m thinking it will be the 3rd drama. TGW does get pretty good ratings for Sunday considering its challenges with sports constantly delaying its starttime, so I’m thinking its a yes to renewal.

  • Dan

    @Rob60990 – This was a very odd year for CBS but I guess they didnt feel their comedy Pilots were ready to warrant an expansion this fall, which is why they will probably do it next fall. CBS could get away with keeping just Elementary this year.

    @Gerry – This syndication situation will certainly help The Good Wife and in the process hurt The Mentalist, though there’s a way both could return.

    Has anyone seen the final CSI NY episode of the season, and if so would it serve as a good/better finale then the last 2 season finales?

  • Dan

    @Meliwa – CSI NY’s producers have done that with the last 2 seasons and how can they not give the final season tone, the show was barely renewed in May 2011 and May 2012. Luckily it was renewed in favor over Criminal Minds Suspect Behavior because of syndication and it was renewed over CSI Miami because NY was younger and Friday was in better shape than Sunday. This year there is no veteran and it will be cancelled.

  • Nick

    “CBS will cancel at least one more of its spring dramas to make room on their schedule next Fall. That cancellation will come from among CSI:NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist.”

    Ahem, CSI: NY isn’t a spring drama. It effectively shares a spot with Golden Boy.

  • Dan

    Deadline’s article on the GW syndication deal reports that The Good Wife is fully expected to return this fall with it’s deal in place.

    While that article may be a little enthusiastic and premature, it is a very good sign for the show.

    So the question may be, with CBS effectively canceling CSI NY, Vegas, Golden Boy, and likely renewing The Good Wife, will they cancel The Mentalist too?

    Made in Jersey & Partners are already cancelled and Rules of Engagement will probably be as well.

  • Nick

    What CBS should do for 2013-2014:

    Mon-
    8: How I Met Your Mother (full final season)
    8:30: Two and a Half Men
    9: 2 Broke Girls
    9:30: Super Clyde (new)
    10: Beverly Hills Cop (new)

    Tue-
    8: NCIS
    9: Untitled NCIS: LA spinoff (new)
    10: NCIS: Los Angeles

    Wed-
    8: Survivor
    9: Criminal Minds
    10: CSI

    Thu-
    8: The Big Bang Theory
    8:30: Mom (new)
    9: Person of Interest
    10: Intelligence (new)

    Fri-
    8: Undercover Boss
    9: Crazy Ones (new)
    9:30: Mike & Molly
    10: Blue Bloods

    Sat-
    8: Beverly Hills Cop (R)
    9: The Mentalist (R)
    10: 48 Hours Mystery

    Sun-
    7: 60 Minutes
    8: The Amazing Race
    9: Hawaii Five-0
    10: The Mentalist

    Midseason – Elementary, The Good Wife, Rules of Engagement

  • Elijah

    What would be the point of renewing Elementary and saving it for midseason? Honest question here. Correct me if I am wrong, but CBS owns it and if anything they’ll want to get it to syndication. Is that correct?

    I don’t see the point in giving it a partial second season.

    This is an honest question, not one of my usual troll rants.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “What would be the point of renewing Elementary and saving it for midseason? Honest question here. Correct me if I am wrong, but CBS owns it and if anything they’ll want to get it to syndication. Is that correct?

    I don’t see the point in giving it a partial second season.

    This is an honest question, not one of my usual troll rants.”

    All the “13 episode renewal for mid-season” schedule chatter for a CBS drama is nonsense. It’s typically hopeful/desperate fans trying to figure out a way to shoehorn their favorite low rated show into the lineup somehow.

    I’m not motivated to go back and look and see, but if CBS renews a rookie show they almost never cancel it before it hits syndication. They’re going to do their best to produce as many episodes as they reasonably can in as short a time period as possible. Future ratings dives (hello Good Wife!) notwithstanding.

  • Elijah

    ^^Thank you!

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