CBS: 'Golden Boy' & 'Vegas' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But The 3rd Drama Canceled Isn't So Certain

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


uncertain-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Golden Boy :oops: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.99
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS renewed 1.30
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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Golden Boy is staying on Tuesday (after one disastrous Friday outing last week), and Vegas is moving to Fridays. That's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, both shows are going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

CBS will cancel at least one more of its spring dramas to make room on their schedule next Fall. That cancellation will come from among CSI:NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Sadly, whatever decision metrics CBS will use are completely hidden to us, and my guess that of those three CSI:NY is going away boils down to two things (1) It's oldest, and likely most expensive, and (2) its season ended early, with only 17 episodes. Admittedly, those are a shaky basis for my prediction, but if I'm going to decide by the end of the season regardless, that's all I'm likely to have.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Mike

    After 60 Minutes, The Mentalist had the highest number of viewers on Sunday night. Why would CBS cancel this show??? Now that football is over, TM will do just fine on Sunday night.

  • Steve From Oakland

    Wait a coton-pickin minuto here: what’s so bad about cowboys and mafiosi? The sleezebags they keep sending out to the Big V to get in Dennis Quaid’s face are all a lot of goomba fun – years before CSI was even a twinkle in the eyes of LVPD… And then there’s Quaid himself with a look of warped contempt that only a gila monster could stare down in a game of hold ‘em.

    Remember it took Seinfeld a couple of years to catch on, and with Chikilis (sp?)and Quaid together in control of production, you just know they’re going to up the ante – not hold ‘em at all.

    Keep this gem instead of all the identical shows that always start with a blood-encrusted corpse and end up with yet another serial killer shot in the act of performing some perversion or another on the corpse’s sister, brother or newborn baby: how much of that puke is enough already?

  • Randy

    Why not cancel both CSI: NY and The Good Wife?

  • Jacob

    neither the mentalist or the good wife is getting cancelled

  • simsalabim

    CBS closed a very good syndication deal for TGW on multiple platforms, which brings them 2.000.000 $/per episode. So it is highly unlikely that they will cancel it.

  • Tim

    CBS is easy to figure out. They will cancel veteran shows they have on Friday-Sunday waiting to be axed and move there the worst performer they have on week days.
    That would make CSI NY, maybe TM too, goners, and H50 moved to the one of those spots .

  • Meliwa

    @Mike–now that football is over, CBS shows golf during the spring. Starting with the Masters, Sunday nights run over as routinely in the spring as they do the fall.

  • Battlejuice

    @CBSviewer,

    PoI at 8pm will never happen on any day of the week. It’s a 9 or 10pm show.

  • Diane

    I agree with Leverage-Fan that The Mentalist is in a bad place. It is so late in the season that they would have to be filming a mind blowing finale to end the series right now, not knowing if they were going to be picked up. I think it may have been the same situation in the season three finale. If they do get picked up and the antagonist has been killed, most folks think it will be the end anyway. If they would get a sixth season, they would have to backtrack as what always happened in the saturday morning serials. I dont think fans would support that happening two seasons. The creator of the series said in an interview that he felt they would be forwarned as to renewal/cancellation. Would love to be a fly on the wall right now to hear what is really going on about now. If this post is not appropriate, I apologize. I know you deal more in overall predictions and not about a fan’s perception of a series.

  • thatguy

    I would really, really like for CBS to take a gamble and give Golden Boy another season. It’s not like they couldn’t afford to, and it would mean that someone in network television is moving away from the archaic way of doing things that they’ve been doing, something that needs to happen or else all four major networks (yes, CBS too) are going to see a steady decline in ratings over the next decade.

    I’ve been on the fence about where Golden Boy is going, but I and everyone who’s actually sticking with it agree Chi McBride has been the best part of the show, and I’d hate to see him out of work because of crappy network practices that don’t give shows a real chance. As of the most recent episode this week, however, it seems like the show might just be starting to establish what it wants to do. It’s getting better on all fronts, and I’m optimistic it could get to a point where Chi doesn’t have to carry the entire thing on his shoulders.

    The idea that CBS released a filler show in the Spring just to let it die (and that this is a thing they do frequently) doesn’t sit well with me. At the very least, I’d love to see two seasons of GB before I reach a verdict, because the most recent episode promises a lot more intrigue in the future than I initially thought the show capable of possessing.

  • Leverage-Fan

    @Diane: I couldn´t have said it better myself! It is so frustrating to know that the season five finale will have a cliffhanger type ending and no word on renewal at all. I know that all series have to end. When “The Mentalist” come to an end, all I want or demand is a real series finale. Nothing more nothing less!

  • scJohn

    I find it hard to see CBS canceling TGW after the deal they just cut with Amazon and Hulu+. TGW should be good for at least 1 more season and more than likely for 2.

  • ToXiX

    @thatguy

    I agree. Hopefully Golden Boy can pull a Scandal and get above a 2.0 as it progresses. The show has been received very well by critics despite the negative feedback it seems to have here just because the old bastards are mad Vegas is gone. It was smart of them to keep GB on Tuesdays. Vegas was already dead but I refuse to believe Golden Boy is finished. The ratings will rise due to the strong word of mouth, mark my words. CBS may have just threw out crappy cop shows the past few seasons (Chaos, NYC 22, etc.) but CBS has had a horrible season this year. Elementary will be their only returning freshman series? Doesn’t sound right to me. I believe CBS is desperately hoping Golden Boy works out for them. And the show itself is amazing.

  • Illinois

    This Season three of CBS’s veterans are in danger:
    – CSI: NY
    – The Mentalist
    – The Good Wife
    And probably one of them will be canceled. But next year, Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods will reach the magic 88 so they will also be in danger of cancelation.
    My question is: Does it mean CBS has to cancel two veterans this year ?

  • Elijah

    Wishful thinking, but I would be ecstatic if Elementary could get a syndication deal like Hawaii Five 0 did in its first season or the Mentalist (wasn’t the mentalist sold in it’s first season? Or early second? Can’t remember for sure…)

  • Nick

    @Bill Gorman

    All the “13 episode renewal for mid-season” schedule chatter for a CBS drama is nonsense. It’s typically hopeful/desperate fans trying to figure out a way to shoehorn their favorite low rated show into the lineup somehow

    Whoa, whoa, whoa. Not all of the people doing that are “hopeful/desperate fans”. I put Elementary at midseason because there was no room on my schedule because I expanded comedy hours, and I thought it was a dumb idea to not have CSI: NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist on the fall schedule. And it would be a The Following-esque 15/16 episode order, which is OK for a show on the syndication track. Just because I don’t think Elementary is such a big hit doesn’t make me desperate.

  • Elijah

    Maybe it’s not the hit CBS expected (and until anyone can provide a source saying so, or until anyone can provide any info. whatsoever on what kind of ratings CBS expected it to have vs the ratings it actually does have, that’s a moot point) but compared to all the other 10 pm dramas, it’s not doing any worse and is actually doing better than a lot of them, like Vegas.

    Same with POI, I keep hearing “it wasn’t the hit CBS expected it to be” until we can provide any evidence on that, it’s all a moot point. Unless networks publicly release ratings predictions on all their shows before the broadcast season starts and I don’t know about it, I don’t know where people are coming up with this “CBS expected it to do better” or “it’s not the kind of hit CBS wanted it to be” nonsense.

  • Maggie

    Why would you name a show “Golden Boy”!?!?!?? It’s almost like begging for its cancellation before it starts!!

  • Ultima

    With The Good Wife getting a syndication deal (worth ~$2 million an episode!) that rolls out over the next 18 months, it’s going to be renewed. My guess is that it slides to the Sunday 10pm timeslot.

    I think that The Mentalist is now likely to be canceled.

  • Ultima

    @Steve
    Remember it took Seinfeld a couple of years to catch on

    No, it didn’t.

    It took Seinfeld a few years before it was a monster hit, but it was a successful show right out of the gate. It’s initial summer run put up big numbers and while the second season was a bit rocky, it did well when given the chance.

    It’s silly to compare below average shows that already have a good timeslot to Seinfeld as if it’s somehow the same thing.

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