CBS: 'Golden Boy' & 'Vegas' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But The 3rd Drama Canceled Isn't So Certain

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


uncertain-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Golden Boy :oops: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.99
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS renewed 1.30
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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Golden Boy is staying on Tuesday (after one disastrous Friday outing last week), and Vegas is moving to Fridays. That's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, both shows are going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

CBS will cancel at least one more of its spring dramas to make room on their schedule next Fall. That cancellation will come from among CSI:NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Sadly, whatever decision metrics CBS will use are completely hidden to us, and my guess that of those three CSI:NY is going away boils down to two things (1) It's oldest, and likely most expensive, and (2) its season ended early, with only 17 episodes. Admittedly, those are a shaky basis for my prediction, but if I'm going to decide by the end of the season regardless, that's all I'm likely to have.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Clover

    I don’t care any show that CBS want to cancel…Just let CSINY
    stay 1 more season,PLS!!!!….Beside this is only CSI series that
    I’ve been watch since I was 15…

    Just renew 1 more season for CSINY….pls!!!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Not all of the people doing that are “hopeful/desperate fans”. I put Elementary at midseason because there was no room on my schedule because I expanded comedy hours, and I thought it was a dumb idea to not have CSI: NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist on the fall schedule. And it would be a The Following-esque 15/16 episode order, which is OK for a show on the syndication track. Just because I don’t think Elementary is such a big hit doesn’t make me desperate.”

    Fair enough.

    I should have written that it’s not only hopeful/desperate fans making those “13 episode renewal for mid-season” suggestions, it’s also folks who’re ignoring how CBS has scheduled its returning dramas within recent memory, which is completely fine for “fantasy scheduling”, because that’s complete fantasy.

  • Cass

    Bill, Deadline just broke the news that in a combined deal with Amazon/Hulu and Hallmark Channel, CBS Studios is getting $2 million per episode for The Good Wife in syndication. I want to believe 5th season chances went up with this news but its relatively woeful ratings on Sundays (and pre-May/outta sweeps scheduling) give me pause.

    Moment of truth: Is this syndication deal enough to push it off “toss up” territory in is death match with CSI: NY and The Mentalist?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Bill, Deadline just broke the news that in a combined deal with Amazon/Hulu and Hallmark Channel, CBS Studios is getting $2 million per episode for The Good Wife in syndication”

    They “just” broke the news? We had the press release on our site 2 days ago, and I’m sure they had it at the same time. ;)

    Knowing nothing else, except what’s in the press release, it does seem like a likely, but not certain, indicator of another GW season. I will be moving my GW prediction to likely renewed on Tuesday.

  • Cass

    Haha, that’ll teach me to get so excited about Veronica Mars and movie news I forgot all about checking the archives. I’ll be looking forward to that post on Tuesday. Some good news to break up the CSI:NY/Mentalist/TGW-deadlock and woe-is-Vegas/GB front!

  • Joh

    For anyone who still doesn’t know, there’s a CBS press release stating Mentalist & Good Wife are renewed for next season. It did not mention Elementary being renewed, but my jaw will drop if it’s not. And I haven’t a clue why Golden Boy is in danger of cancellation–it’s a well made show with a strong cast.

  • Cass

    And I haven’t a clue why Golden Boy is in danger of cancellation–it’s a well made show with a strong cast.

    @Joh, if only quality guaranteed eyeballs! What matters most to CBS are ratings (read: advertisers). Quality, prestige, buzz and what-have-you are concerns so distant in the renewal equation that the only reliable way to predict renewal/cancellation is to look at the numbers. The ratings say, no second season.

  • Leverage-Fan

    @Joh: Where do you find that press release? I cannot find it.

  • Nick

    @Bill

    Yeah, I can get that.

    @Cass

    I want to believe 5th season chances went up with this news but its […] pre-May/outta sweeps scheduling) give me pause.

    Every show in the Sun @9 slot has that scheduling, thanks to the fact that both The Amazing Race and Survivor have 2-hour finales on Sundays in May. The Good Wife ended the first Sunday in May sweeps last year, too.

    @Joh

    For anyone who still doesn’t know, there’s a CBS press release stating Mentalist & Good Wife are renewed for next season.

    Where? Certainly not on this site, which posts every press release known to man.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Joh: Where do you find that press release? I cannot find it.”

    Because it doesn’t exist.

    “Where? Certainly not on this site, which posts every press release known to man.”

    We do what we can. ;)

  • Leverage-Fan

    @Bill Gorman: That’s what I figured. :-( At least may isn’t SO far away! ;-)

  • CBSviewer

    @ Joh

    Golden Boy will be canceled because the Show is underperforming. 1.5 is what Vegas got and it’s Bad for Tuesday at 10.
    The Mentalist and The Good Wife ARE NOT RENEWED YET !!!

  • GoodTV

    The Good Wife is the best show on network TV. They need to keep it!

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Bill Gorman et al,

    Help me out here. Wouldn’t CBS have to cancel more than the three shows mentioned if they want to premier 3 new dramas in the fall?

    The time sharing combo of CSI:NY and Golden Boy represents one slot and Vegas represents another but where does the third come from?
    Since Made in Jersey and Undercover Boss time shared, if they held back UB, from the fall, then that could be another slot, but UB seems to be working at 8pm better than Made in Jersey or A Gifted Man did.

    I guess it would complicate things even more if they wanted to start 3 new drams in the fall AND add a 4th hour of comedy to relieve aging veterans that may be gone next year.

    Since the 2008-2009 season CBS has cancelled 4 dramas, which freed up 3 drama slots, except for the 2009-2010 season when they cancelled 5 dramas to free up 4 drama slots.

    I guess in terms of answering my own question, there are too many combinations of possibilities. One extreme being 3 open slots if UB is held and no new comedy hour then the GB/CSI:NY and Vegas will be sufficient, but atypical for CBS.
    The other extreme being 5 open slots if they want UB in the fall + 3 new dramas + one more hour of comedy then GB/CSI:NY and Vegas would need two more dramas to join them in cancellation. That would leave The Mentalist and ??? to be cancelled.
    I guess in between those two extremes lies the likely result of
    4 new hour slots opening with The Mentalist having to join the other 3 mentioned in the post.

    Sorry to go on so long.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Steve: “Remember it took Seinfeld a couple of years to catch on”

    Ultima: “No, it didn’t. It took Seinfeld a few years before it was a monster hit, but it was a successful show right out of the gate. It’s initial summer run put up big numbers and while the second season was a bit rocky, it did well when given the chance.
    It’s silly to compare below average shows that already have a good timeslot to Seinfeld as if it’s somehow the same thing.”

    Thank you Ultima for once again trying to dispel the myth that Seinfeld was some kind of failure out of the gate that NBC was kind enough to nurture onto healthy ratings.
    It is unfortunate that you need to dispel that myth over and over for people.

    Now if you could only get people to stop citing the fact that Cheers was such a failure out of the gate (which it was rating in the bottom ten programs of 1982-83) and NBC nurturing it for more season to the success it became, should be a reason for networks to do the same today.
    The people saying this are delusional if they think in any way, shape, or form the TV landscape from thirty years ago can be compared to the one today.

    Don’t even get me started on those who think Star Trek getting to continue despite its ratings should be the reason every useless Save Our Show campaign should be listened to by the networks.

  • Ultima

    @Anthony Parello
    Wouldn’t CBS have to cancel more than the three shows mentioned if they want to premier 3 new dramas in the fall?

    No. The three shows that are currently airing that are not expected to be on the fall schedule are Golden Boy, Vegas and Undercover Boss.

    Of course, CSI NY is not on the schedule, so if it comes back, another drama (The Mentalist) would need to be canceled to make room for it.

    If they need an additional hour (for Undercover Boss, Unforgettable or additional sitcoms), then both CSI NY and The Mentalist would need to be canceled.

  • Ultima

    @Anthony Parello

    Sorry, I responded too quickly. Yes, Undercover Boss is the third hour. CBS has used it as a replacement the past two seasons and will probably continue to do so – it’s much more flexible as a replacement than a drama is.

  • Ultima

    @Anthony Parello

    Cheers premiered really low, but did manage to build itself an audience as the season progressed (as in, its ratings went up! I can’t stand when people say a show with declining ratings is “building an audience”).

    Had it been on one of the good networks, it probably gets yanked right away; fortunately for Cheers, NBC sucked, so it got to hang around long enough to earn its second season (at which point it continued to grow, although it wouldn’t become a hit until The Cosby Show arrived).

    Sadly, rabid players of Fan Excuse Bingo love to bring up megahit shows that weren’t #1 right out of the gate (which is most of them) as evidence that their show can do the same! :roll:

  • Ultima

    @Anthony Parello

    Sorry, just ignore my previous two responses, which were basically just what you said and I managed to not read… I blame the lack of caffeine! :)

    I guess in terms of answering my own question, there are too many combinations of possibilities.

    I don’t see it this way at all. CBS is very predictable.

    9 returning dramas – H50, NCIS, NCIS LA, CM, CSI, PoI, Elem, BB, TGW
    3 new dramas
    3 hours of sitcoms – TBBT, Men*, HIMYM, 2BG, M&M, 1-2 new*
    2 hours of reality
    2 hours of newsmagazines
    2 hours of Crimetime Saturday

    = 21 hours; I’d say there’s a 99% chance this will happen

    All that’s left is that final hour – CSI NY? Mentalist? Undercover Boss? Unforgettable+CSI NY? Unforgettable+Undercover Boss? Fourth hour of sitcoms?

    There’s a lot of possibilites, but they’re just limited to that final hour. I would shocked if The Good Wife, Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods, CSI, etc. were in any danger of cancellation due to CBS cutting drama hours; and I’m rarely shocked by network decisions (only Body of Proof’s renewal and NBC keeping The Voice off the schedule so long have managed to elict such a response recently).

  • Steven Templar

    I wish CBS would jettison “Rules of Engagement” rather than keep bringing it back for a half-season at a time. I like Patrick Warburton and David Spade. But absence is not making the heart grow fonder with this show. It keeps coming back but with nothing fresh to add. Keep “Vegas” dump “Golden (Not)Boy”,”Undercover Boss”, “Big Brother” and “CSI:NY” (wish they’d given “CSI: Miami” one more season or a made-for-TV film to wrap up the story lines and dumped CSI:NY last season.

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