CBS: 'Golden Boy' & 'Vegas' Are Certain To Be Canceled, But The 3rd Drama Canceled Isn't So Certain

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

March 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


uncertain-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Made In Jersey (F)* canceled 0.36
CSI:NY (F)* :cry: :cry: 0.50
Blue Bloods (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Golden Boy :oops: 0.53
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.58
Vegas :oops: 0.58
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.65
Partners* canceled 0.79
Hawaii Five-0 :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.80
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Rules of Engagement :| :| :| 0.99
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
NCIS renewed 1.30
How I Met Your Mother renewed 1.30
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
Two and a Half Men** :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
The Big Bang Theory renewed 2.09

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Golden Boy is staying on Tuesday (after one disastrous Friday outing last week), and Vegas is moving to Fridays. That's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, both shows are going to be dinner for the Cancellation Bear.

CBS will cancel at least one more of its spring dramas to make room on their schedule next Fall. That cancellation will come from among CSI:NY, The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Sadly, whatever decision metrics CBS will use are completely hidden to us, and my guess that of those three CSI:NY is going away boils down to two things (1) It's oldest, and likely most expensive, and (2) its season ended early, with only 17 episodes. Admittedly, those are a shaky basis for my prediction, but if I'm going to decide by the end of the season regardless, that's all I'm likely to have.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CBS Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Ultima,

    Thanks so much for the response!!! It makes sense. I forgot about that later summer start of Unforgettable (its return will make for some interesting posts from old Ralph Hahn, the apparent president of the Poppy Montgomery fan club). Its un-cancellation was truly one of the biggest surprises for me. Although the return as a reduced order, summer, cast cut, budget cut show (I believe) did so less.

    Just as an aside I do find it funny when Vegas fans insist it could get the same treatment as Unforgettable when I imagine CBS would want to see the results of that experiment first (which won’t happen because of the date. Also I would think Dennis Q. and Michael C’s salaries, plus the effects budget, would preclude it being viable for the summer.

    Lastly life may get even more interesting around these parts in the wake of the Veronica Mars news. Come the upfronts we may hear cries of Vegas: The Movie or Body of Proof: The Cinematic Saga or Happy Endings Coming to a theater near you 2015!!! At that point I will be saying “What hath Rob Thomas wrought?”.

    Cheers

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    I’m thinking we might have an announcement this coming week (Wed 3/20) about the CBS obvious renewals.
    Last year on 3/14 they announced the renewal of 18 shows (including realities and magazine shows) as well as negotiations for Two and a Half Men (which finally was announced just prior to 5/16 upfronts on 5/12).

    Those shows not mentioned that were the later cancelled for the 2012-13 regular season were, A Gifted Man, CSI:Miami, NYC-22, Unforgettable, and Rob.

    The shows not mentioned that were renewed were only CSI:NY and Rules of Engagement (which was oddly announced as renewed after the upfronts on 5/21).

    If such an announcement comes and Golden Boy, Vegas, CSI:NY, Rules of Engagement and The Mentalist are left off then it would be a safe bet (2 months before upfronts) that the fate of all the shows has been sealed.

  • Davis

    Sunday
    Survivor
    Beverly Hills Cops (new)
    The Mentalist

    Monday
    HIMYM (final)
    Mike & Molly
    2 Broke Girls
    Mom (new)
    Elementary

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS: LA
    NCIS: Red (new)

    Wednesday
    2.5 Men
    Crazy Ones (new)
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    Big Bang
    Super Clyde (new)
    Person of Interest
    Hostages (new)

    Friday
    Undercover Boss
    The Good Wife
    Blue Bloods

    MIDSEASON
    Freinds with Better Lives
    The Surgeon General
    The Amazing Race
    Reckless

  • The Other Tony

    Sunday

    7:00 – 60 Minutes
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Elementary
    10:00 – CSI

    Monday

    8:00 – How I Met Your Mother
    8:30 – Friends With Better Lives
    9:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – The Mentalist

    Tuesday

    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00 – Hawaii Five-O

    Wednesday

    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – NCIS: Red
    10:00 – Criminal Minds

    Thursday

    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – Two and A Half Men
    9:00 – Intelligence
    10:00 – Person of Interest

    Friday

    8:00 – Beverly Hills Cop
    9:00 – The Good Wife
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    MIDSEASON: Mike & Molly, Hostages, Second Sight, Jacked Up, Untitled Greg Garcia Project

  • Jordan

    Wouldn’t a Tuesday night with NCIS, NCIS: LA, and NCIS: Red. They would never do that cuz if you watched all three shows, but that would be pretty cool.

  • disney rocks

    What id do is place TM Friday @9 next season; BB @10. In February, give BB a break and put new drama in its spot. BB back in April-ish. If that new drama succeeds, cancel one of BB/TM next year. Also, TGW at 8 on Fridays.

  • HAPPY!

    Monday

    HIMYM
    Crazy Ones (NEW)
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    Beverly Hills Cop (NEW)

    Tuesday

    NCIS
    NCIS Red (NEW)
    NCIS LA

    Wednesday

    Person of Interest
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday

    TBBT
    Mom (NEW)
    Two and a Half Men
    Friends with Better Lives (NEW)
    Intelligence (NEW)

    Friday

    Undercover Boss
    Elementary
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday

    The Amazing Race/Survivor
    Hawaii Five-0
    The Mentalist

    Thoughts?

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    I just don’t see why so many people insist that Survivor and The Amazing Race will be doing anything other than returning for Fall and Spring seasons.

    The ratings for both, especially given their low costs, would indicate both have earned their place back on the schedule. They continue to outperform a fair few of CBS’ new dramas from the last couple of seasons like A Gifted Man, Made in Jersey, Vegas, NYC-22, Golden Boy, Unforgettable, and (???) Elementary as well as aging veterans like The Good Wife, The Mentalist, CSI:NY and Blue Bloods.

    I could see it happening if either (or both) hosts requested to participate in only one cycle a year or if either or both hosts decided to retire, but even then they could plug in a new host for at least a season or two in order to see if the show could survive a host shake up.

  • CBSviewer

    @ HAPPY !

    What about HIMYM ? The Show is already Renewed.

  • CBSviewer

    @ HAPPY !

    Sorry i didn’t see it :)
    I really like your Schedule !

  • SoXIX

    Why would Survivor move to Sundays? With 2.6ish ratings (generally higher for fall seasons, in fact) in the demo and lower production costs than scripted, shouldn’t it be a lock to return to Wednesday nights at 8?

    Also, CBS announced many renewals Mar 14 last year… I’d expect some announcements very soon

  • Ultima

    @Anthony Parello
    I just don’t see why so many people insist that Survivor and The Amazing Race will be doing anything other than returning for Fall and Spring seasons.

    Many fantasy schedulers loathe reality shows and feel that they should be cut back in order to make room for more scripted programming.

    The epitome of this was the countless “Saturday 8-DWTS, 10-DWTS results” schedules last year…

  • Ultima

    @SoXIX
    Why would Survivor move to Sundays? With 2.6ish ratings (generally higher for fall seasons, in fact) in the demo and lower production costs than scripted, shouldn’t it be a lock to return to Wednesday nights at 8?

    Given how much CBS struggled with that timeslot prior to moving Survivor there, I doubt the show will be moved until they finally decide to end it.

  • SoXIX

    @Ultima How low do you think ratings would have to go for them to end it / how much longevity do you see it having? After all, this site’s index only covers scripted shows.

  • HAPPY!

    @Ultima and SoXIX
    I agree with you both that Wednesdays at 8 is a great slot for Survivor, which is why i hesitated before moving it on my schedule to Sundays to share a slot with The Amazing Race. But with the decreasing competition on Wednesdays at 8 (Idol falling, NBC sitcoms at extremely low levels as usual, and lower ratings for The Middle), a drama could thrive on Wednesdays at 8. Plus Survivor could also air a second season in the summer (it did well there in its 1st season). In summer 2014, i could see a powerful reality block of Survivor and Big Brother. Although, no mater what i am still a huge Survivor fan ;).

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Thanks Ultima.

    I must must missed the DWTS Saturday extravaganza schedules though I only glance at all the proposed schedules.

    I do remember Petar going on and on about shared seasons for Survivor and The Amazing Race and you trying to help him see the light.

  • Ultima

    @SoXIX
    How low do you think ratings would have to go for them to end it / how much longevity do you see it having?

    I don’t think ratings will be the issue; they’ll probably remain on the air until the hosts/producers decide that they don’t want to do it anymore.

    But with the decreasing competition on Wednesdays at 8

    The competition is much stronger (relatively) than when CBS was struggling before moving Survivor there. Remember, Idol didn’t begin airing in that timeslot consistently until 2011, which is after Survivor moved.

    They could get a drama to work there, but the only reason to actually move Survivor seems to be to timeshare with The Amazing Race, which is extremely unlikely.

  • HAPPY!

    @Ultma
    Here is an update of my schedule if Survivor was to stay put on Wednesdays

    Monday
    No change

    Tuesday
    No change

    Wednesday

    Survivor
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    No Change

    Friday

    The Mentalist(short final season)/Undercover Boss
    Elementary
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday

    The Amazing Race
    Hawaii Five-0
    Person of Interest

    Ultima, is this better than the last schedule?

  • Mrspapajohn

    Why do we hear so little about the best CBS drama: “Person of Interest?” If “The Good Wife” didn’t have such a meltdown where scripts and plots (does the show even have a plot anymore?) are concerned, I don’t believe that interest would have waned the way it has. Please catch Red John and call it a day! CBS does NOT do well in the area of comedies, so why cancel good dramas (like “Golden Boy”) to make room for more of the same, tired, unfunny situation comedies. Finally, when are networks going to realize that we are SO tired of “reality” series. “Undercover Boss?” C’mon.

  • Holly

    @Mrspapajohn,

    CBS does NOT do well in the area of comedies,

    What? CBS’s comedies do really well. So much so that every year there’s speculation they will add another hour of comedies.

    Oh, and complaining about reality TV on CBS… They have about the same number of hours of regular scripted series as they did in the 70s and 80s, even though they lost Saturday. So whining about one of their 3 hours of reality versus their 12 scripted dramas (13 in the fall) just makes you look silly.

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